Betting Guide for UFC Fight Night on 10/10/20
This Saturday, the UFC hits the midpoint of their five-week Fight Island schedule. The card is headlined by a very high-level bantamweight fight pitting former champion Marlon Moraes against Cory Sandhagen. It doesn't get much better than that on a Fight Night card, and FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of odds: outright winners, method of victory, and more.
Let's take a look at the best bets to make.
Cory Sandhagen (-148) vs. Marlon Moraes (+126)
Both of these fighters are at the top of the bantamweight division and have already fought very tough competition. After starting his UFC career with five-straight wins, Sandhagen is coming off of his lone UFC loss to likely title challenger Aljamain Sterling. Moraes lost the bantamweight title to Henry Cejudo in June of 2019, before claiming a highly-contested split decision victory over Jose Aldo in December.
Moraes has a very solid build and packs a lot of power, while Sandhagen is the rangier fighter, carrying a five-inch height and three-inch reach advantage into this fight. Sandhagen also holds the edge in striking output, landing an average of 3.42 more significant strikes per minute and landing at a 9% higher rate than Moraes. Both fighters defend significant strikes at a rate of 48% with Moraes absorbing just .39 less significant strikes per minute.
Although he is still the favorite, Sandhagen is likely being discounted in this fight due to his recent first-round loss to Sterling. The -148 price tag is fair for the favorite.
Ben Rothwell (-164) vs. Marcin Tybura (+138)
The big dogs are coming out to play in this one, as Ben Rothwell, who usually weighs in at the 265-pound limit, will take on Marcin Tybura, who came in at 252 pounds for his last fight.
Rothwell has been in the UFC for 11 years now, and recently rebounded from a three-fight skid to put together a two-fight win streak. Tybura has also won two in a row, but has failed to break through to the next level with a win over a big name during his UFC tenure.
Neither fighter throws punches at an especially heavy output, and Rothwell gets hit more often, absorbing an average of 1.51 more significant strikes per minute. But he has actually out-landed each of his past two opponents and has not been finished since he was submitted in January of 2013 and this fight is priced at -130 to go the distance. With the experience and size in his favor, Rothwell has the edge in this one. He is still affordable at -164.
Tom Breese (-270) vs. KB Bhullar (+220)
Ok enough with the favorites. Let's find an underdog.
And what an underdog we have to choose from, but KB Bhullar, the undefeated Canadian prospect making his UFC debut after finishing six of his eight professional opponents in the first-round. He is up against Tom Breese, who holds a 2-4 UFC record, and has lost two of his past three fights, including a KO loss to Brendan Allen in February. Breese has had to deal with serious issues outside of the cage, leading to him fighting just twice since 2016, making him hard to trust in the Octagon.
Breese fought at 170 pounds until that long break, and will be giving up an inch in height and five inches in reach in this fight.
The obvious value is on the underdog, Bhullar at +220. And with this fight priced at -122 to end inside the distance, a bet on Bhullar to win by KO/TKO or submission at +420 is also appealing.