Betting Guide for UFC Fight Night on 9/12/20
While the UFC is gearing up for a return to Fight Island, we still get two more weeks of events at the APEX facility in Las Vegas. This one is headlined by Angela Hill getting her first UFC main event spot against Michelle Waterson.
As has been the case with most events during this pandemic, this card has already seen its fair share of shuffling. But there is still plenty to bet on, and FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of odds: outright winners, method of victory, and more.
Let's take a look at the best bets to make.
Angela Hill (-134) vs. Michelle Waterson (+110)
This fight will be Hill's eighth octagon appearance over the past 18 months. She has put together a 4-3 record over that time, with many analysts thinking that she won her last fight against Claudia Gadelha as well, despite receiving a split decision loss from the judges. Waterson has fought just three times in that timeframe, putting together a 1-2 record, with all three of those fights going the distance.
Both fighters have beat weaker competition in the past but failed to get over the edge against the tougher fighters in the division. Hill has fought to a decision in nine of her 12 fights since returning to the UFC in 2017, and Waterson has reached a decision in six-straight fights. So it makes sense that this fight is priced at -260 to go to the distance, even though it will be five rounds.
With the matchup being so close, and the fight likely to go to a decision, Hill holding the advantage on the feet with an average of 2.45 more significant strikes landed per minute really stands out. Neither fighter is known for their grappling game, and this fight will likely contest on the feet. Likely to get a decision on the judge's scorecards, Hill is the pick to win this fight.
Khama Worthy (-134) vs. Ottman Azaitar (+110)
The favorite, Khama Worthy, holds a 2-0 UFC record. But the first of those wins came in a short notice debut, in which he landed 41% of his significant strike attempts before coming landing a knockout punch in the first round. The second victory came in a fight during which he was taken down three times and nearly submitted before landing a guillotine choke of his own. Prior to the UFC, he lost six times, with all of them coming inside the distance.
The underdog, Ottman Azaitar, is a perfect 12-0 in his professional career, with only one of those fights lasting to a decision. This will only be his second UFC fight, but he has the resume of someone that the UFC would want to build up.
Recent history has this line a little questionable, and Azaitar should probably be favored. For extra juice on his side, Azaitar to win by KO/TKO or submission at +170 provides solid value.
Roosevelt Roberts (-116) vs. Matt Frevola (-102)
This is another fight where the odds are questionable, and the underdog could easily be the favorite. Neither fighter has very good numbers on the feet, but the edge here comes on the ground, where Matt Frevola averages 3.30 takedowns landed per 15 minutes compared to 1.77 for Roosevelt Roberts. Frevola averages only 40% success on those takedown attempts, but Roberts sporting a 58% takedown defense rate isn't pretty either. Being taken down proved to be problematic in Roberts's last fight as well, as Jim Miller was able to submit him, despite Roberts closing as a sizable favorite.
Although he is slightly minus money, Frevola is still priced as a slight underdog in this fight, and the value is on his money line at -102.