Betting Guide for UFC Fight Night on 9/5/20
This Saturday's UFC card represents the next step in Alistair Overeem's final run for a title, as he goes up against Augusto Sakai, who is looking to extend his unbeaten run in the UFC.
After a few cancellations, this card is down to nine fights. But there is still plenty to bet on, and FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of odds: outright winners, method of victory, and more.
Let's take a look at the best bets to make.
Alistair Overeem (-170) vs. Augusto Sakai (+138)
Overeem will carry a one-inch height and three-inch reach advantage into his 15th UFC fight. Sakai has won all five of his fights in UFC and Dana White's Contender Series, but none of those fights were against opponents of Overeem's caliber.
Sakai is aggressive on the feet, landing an average of 5.45 significant strikes per minute, compared to 3.66 for Overeem. But Overeem is by far the more efficient striker, landing 17 percentage points more of his significant strike attempts than Sakai does. Overeem also has a significant strike defense rate that is four percentage points better and absorbs 1.71 fewer significant strikes per minute.
Overeem's chin is certainly a concern as his career goes on, which was witnessed in his fight with Jairzinho Rozenstruik, when he got knocked out in the final seconds after dominating the fight. But that concern is already baked into this line, and -170 is still fair for Overeem, who is the more skilled fighter in this matchup.
Alonzo Menifield (-136) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (+116)
This fight was supposed to happen two weeks ago but was pulled from the card just hours before the event was set to start due to Ovince Saint Preux testing positive for COVID-19. Here is what we wrote about it prior to that event:
After a one-fight trial in the heavyweight division, Ovince Saint Preux returns to the light heavyweight division, where he has gone 2-2 over his past four fights. He will have a three-inch height and four-inch reach advantage in this matchup with Alonzo Menifield, who is coming off of his first professional loss.
Prior to the setback, Menifield had compiled a 9-0 pro record, with all of those victories coming in the first or second round.
This fight is priced at -310 to not go the distance, meaning we are very likely to see an early finish. Saint Preux will look to use his size to his advantage, as evidenced by him picking up four submission wins already over the past three years, with three of those coming by his signature Von Flue choke. The experience of going three rounds for the first time will benefit Menifield, and his knockout power isn't going anywhere. This line looks about right, with the best bet being on the favorite, Menifield, at -134.
Saint Preux is the bigger fighter, meaning putting weight back on and then having to cut again is likely to affect him more than it will Alonzo Menifield. That's more of a reason to like Menifield in this one, and with his line hardly moving since the original fight date, my pick remains the same.
Alexander Romanov (-142) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+120)
Alexander Romanov will be making his UFC debut after putting together a perfect 11-0 professional MMA record throughout fights in Moldova and Ukraine. All 11 of those victories came inside the distance, with nine of them ending in the first round.
On the other side, Marco Rogerio de Lima owns a 6-4 record in the UFC, with nine of those fights ending within the first two rounds. The lone outlier was a three-round decision victory over Adam Wieczorek.
This fight is not expected to break these fighters' trends of ending early, as the odds of the fight ending inside the distance are priced at -700. While Romanov does not have any UFC fights to his name, no one has been able to defeat him yet, and Rogerio de Lima has not impressed throughout his UFC run so far. Romanov is the pick to win in this one, and while a victory in his favor is likely to come inside the distance, his odds to win by KO/TKO or submission are just -125. The better play is to stick with his moneyline at -142.