Betting Guide for UFC Fight Night on 8/22/20
The UFC set the bar high with a heavyweight title fight capping off last week's pay-per-view event.
To follow that up, we will get to see former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar make his bantamweight debut in Saturday's main event against Pedro Munhoz. We will also get another look at surging prospect Mariya Agapova, who happens to be the biggest favorite on the card (-1350).
It's a smaller card than last week and lacks the same star power, but that shouldn't stop anyone from looking for betting value, and FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of odds: outright winners, method of victory, and more.
Let's take a look at the best bets to make.
Pedro Munhoz (-260) vs. Frankie Edgar (+215)
As mentioned above, Edgar will now fight at 135 pounds for the first time in his 13-year UFC career, following long runs at both 155 and 145 pounds. Standing at 5'6", many people believe that he should have been a bantamweight all along, and the question now becomes whether it is too late in his career to make the jump.
Welcoming him to the division is Munhoz, who has put together a 7-2 record over the past four years, losing his most recent fight by decision to future title contender Aljamain Sterling. Munhoz has proven to be extremely durable, with all four of his UFC losses coming by decision. He also presents a serious knockout threat, as each of his two most recent victories came by way of first-round TKO. Anyone looking to bet Munhoz in this one would do best taking him to win by KO/TKO at +135.
He prefers to keep the fight standing, averaging 5.29 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 6.17. Edgar will need to use his three-inch reach advantage to stay away from those punches, which he has done well with throughout his career, absorbing an average of only 2.48 significant strikes per minute. And contrary to Munhoz, Edgar fights with a grappling-heavy approach, averaging 2.34 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
As mentioned above, Edgar will need to avoid getting hit with Munhoz's power shots, but with the betting line putting Edgar as a sizable underdog, the betting value lies on him coming away victorious in this one.
Alonzo Menifield (-134) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (+116)
After a one-fight trial in the heavyweight division, Ovince Saint Preux returns to the light heavyweight division, where he has gone 2-2 over his past four fights. He will have a three-inch height and four-inch reach advantage in this matchup with Alonzo Menifield, who is coming off of his first professional loss.
Prior to the setback, Menifield had compiled a 9-0 pro record, with all of those victories coming in the first or second round.
This fight is priced at -310 to not go the distance, meaning we are very likely to see an early finish. Saint Preux will look to use his size to his advantage, as evidenced by him picking up four submission wins already over the past three years, with three of those coming by his signature Von Flue choke. The experience of going three rounds for the first time will benefit Menifield, and his knockout power isn't going anywhere. This line looks about right, with the best bet being on the favorite, Menifield, at -134.
Joe Solecki (-116) vs. Austin Hubbard (-102)
Austin Hubbard returns after pulling off a big upset in his most recent fight, causing Max Rohskopf to call it quits after two rounds. He is now 2-2 in the UFC, with both of his losses coming by decision to talented opponents. Now, he is still technically priced as an underdog against Joe Solecki, whose only UFC win came by decision to Matt Wiman in just Wiman's second fight after a four-year break.
Both fighters average over 3.5 significant strikes landed per minute, with Solecki focusing more on a grappling approach. Solecki averages 3.99 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with an 83% success rate, but that comes against lesser competition. Hubbard has already been in the cage against former NCAA and Olympian-level wrestlers.
It is surprising to see Hubbard priced as the slight underdog here, making him one of the best value bets on the whole card at -102 to win this fight.