Premier League Betting Guide 7/26/20
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Leicester vs Manchester United
Leicester to win +220
Leicester and Manchester United are both battling for a spot in Champions League on Sunday in what should be a thrilling final day of the season. United are currently one measly point ahead of Leicester in the table and the teams are dead even on goal difference.
If we look at some other metrics, Leicester are 3 spots ahead of Manchester United in WhoScored.com’s team rankings, but they trail by 5.7 goals in FB Ref’s expected goal difference. Perhaps pundits would argue that United has more talent, but in the actual games, there has been very little to separate these two teams this season.
Leicester City needs a win to guarantee themselves a spot in the Champions League next season, so they will undoubtedly be pushing hard for three points. Given that the teams are evenly matched, Leicester’s desperation will certainly factor in if the game is tied late on. This game seems close to a toss-up but at +220 Leicester are a solid play to win this one.
Chelsea vs Wolves
Wolves +1 (no push) -105
Chelsea vs Wolves is another critical game in the Champions League hunt, as Chelsea are also playing for a spot in Champions League. However, defeating Wolves will be a daunting task, as Wolves have only 8 losses in 37 matches so far this season, giving them a 78.4% win/draw rate.
Chelsea have 19 wins, which is good enough to be 3rd best in the league, but they are still only winning 51.3% of their matches. Given that Wolves are in 6th place and are comfortably in the top half of the table, one would expect Chelsea to have less than a 51.3% chance to win given this will be more difficult than their average game.
Wolves should be good enough hold off Chelsea for at least a draw in this one and at almost 1-1 the odds are definitely favorable.
Arsenal vs Watford
Watford +1 (no push) -110
On the flip side of the table, Watford are currently sitting in the thick of the relegation race in 18th place, but a win or even a draw against Arsenal could be enough to keep them in the EPL for another season.
Watford are 8W-10D-19L on the year, which is good enough for a 48.6% win/draw rate. Obviously, Watford are having a terrible season but even still they are not a pushover and do not concede the full three points very easily. They also have the benefit of playing an Arsenal team with essentially nothing to play for other than using this as a tune-up game for the FA Cup final.
The Gunners will be happy to see this EPL season come to an end. Arsenal have only won 13 games this season, giving them a 35.1% win rate. Again, the Gunners are playing for nothing and they are not a great team to begin with, so it could be wise to take the motivated Watford to at least come out with a point that they desperately need.