FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 7/4/20
|Crystal Palace at Leicester City||Leicester (-155)||+122||Vardy (-110)|
|Bournemouth at Manchester United||Man United (-650)||-184||Martial/Rashford (-180)|
|Arsenal at Wolves||Wolves (+125)||+110||Jiménez (+130)|
|Watford at Chelsea||Chelsea (-260)||-140||Abraham (-140)|
We have three big favorites in Manchester United (-650), Chelsea (-260) and Leicester (-155), and ownership will likely be centered on them -- particularly Man United and Chelsea. Let's dive into all three sides.
United went into the break in good form, and they've continued it since play resumed, including a pair of 3-0 wins in their past two EPL matches. The Red Devils have now gone without a defeat for 15 straight games, and they should steamroll a Bournemouth side that's taken one total point from its past six league outings.
Bruno Fernandes ($21; -105 to score) has quickly become the focal point for the Red Devils, and he's turned into a DFS dream thanks to his stellar play mixed with his set-piece work, which includes penalties, free kicks and some corners. He offers a superb floor/ceiling combination and is averaging 31.4 FanDuel points per game since coming over in January -- only once going for fewer than 20 FanDuel points. That floor makes him really tough to fade -- way tougher than a goal-reliant striker -- even though he may wind up being the highest-owned player on the slate.
I'll be locking in Bruno; the fun part is picking who to stack him with as Anthony Martial ($20; -180), Marcus Rashford ($18; -180), Paul Pogba ($16; +160) and Mason Greenwood ($15; -110) all deserve a look. Of the group, I like Greenwood and Rashford best. Greenwood is a cheap way to get exposure to great anytime goal odds while I think Rashford may go a tad under-owned due to going without a goal in three EPL outings since the restart. But Rashford is -180 to score and dished out a pair of assists two games ago.
Chelsea are coming off an underwhelming showing in a Wednesday loss at West Ham, but they can bounce back in a smash spot at home to Watford. The Blues' starting attackers have been tough to predict lately, and unfortunately for us, they are in the last game of the slate.
Tammy Abraham ($18; -140) hasn't seen a lot of minutes recently, but he has the top anytime goal odds in this match. Wingers Willian ($20; +180) and Christian Pulisic ($16; +185) have been in fine form since play restarted, with Willian getting a lift from his penalty duties. It remains to be seen if the Brazilian will keep hold of that job if Jorginho is on the pitch. I like Mason Mount ($15; +190) as a possible GPP swing play if he gets into the starting XI, something that didn't happen midweek.
The presence of two bigger favorites coupled with Leicester's worrying form could scare off people from using the Foxes. I won't be one of those people. Jamie Vardy ($17; -110) is due for a blowup game and has been credited with seven chances created in three matches post-break. If James Maddison ($15; +250) gets back in the lineup, his playmaking ability and set-piece duties make him really easy to like at this price in a match in which Leicester should see a lot of the ball. Be warned: this match is just +122 to go over 2.5 goals, so I wouldn't stack the Foxes.
Lastly, I like Wolves -- who are +125 to win -- a little more than oddsmakers do for their clash with Arsenal. Wolves have won all three of their matches since play resumed, giving up zero goals and scoring four. Raúl Jiménez ($19; +130) has the best goal odds in the match and will probably see less ownership than usual given the makeup of the slate. I keep plugging Diogo Jota ($16; +220) as a good GPP play. It hasn't worked out yet, but he's on my radar once again. And Adama Traoré ($12; +340) could wreak havoc against a shoddy Arsenal defense if the Wolves opt to sit back and play on the counter.
Added time -- Anytime we can get Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($20; +135) at lowish ownership, we have to consider it. The opportunity cost is high given the other players in his price range, but Auba could be a GPP difference-maker in spite of a tough matchup. ... If he starts, Harvey Barnes ($12; +310) allows you to get exposure to Leicester while freeing up cash to spend on United's and Chelsea's studs.
Watford, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace are all sizeable underdogs, and I'll be after their defenders for cheap floors.
WhoScored has Chris Mepham ($7) as a probable starter for Bournemouth, and they project Craig Cathcart ($10) to start for Watford. Value might be tougher to come by on Palace, but WhoScored lists Joel Ward ($10) as the starter at right-back. I'll be checking the starting defenders for the Cherries and Eagles -- both of whom are in the early games -- and hoping for cheap center-backs.
As far as attacking full-backs go, paying up at defender won't be my first choice on this slate, but Marcos Alonso ($14), Aaron Wan-Bissaka ($15) and Ben Chilwell ($14) are appealing options. Each plays for a big favorite and should be able to get forward into attacking areas. AWB has an assist in two straight while Alonso created four chances last time out. Chilwell has at least 11.1 FanDuel points in each EPL match post-break and has totaled seven chances created in that span.
Added time -- Patrick van Aanholt ($15) is worth considering. He'll have to tend to his defensive duties at Leicester, and he's been a high-floor play of late, scoring at least 13.2 FanDuel points in six straight matches and tallying at least one chance created in each of those games. He shouldn't see too much ownership. ... Matt Doherty ($14) is another expensive, high-floor defender who will likely go low-owned. Doherty has put up at least 13.2 FanDuel points in eight straight and has recorded four shots on target in that stretch.
David de Gea ($14), Kepa Arrizabalaga ($13) and Kasper Schmeichel ($11) have the best win odds on the slate. Schmeichel's salary and Leicester's strong defense could wind up making him the highest-owned keeper. I prefer to pivot to Kepa or DDG.
Arrizabalaga is coming off a -4.5-point stinker midweek but can feast against Watford. One team to score is listed at -118 for this match. Chelsea to win 2-0 is +550, and the Blues to win 1-0 is +600, the two most likely scorelines. De Gea is fresh off two straight clean sheets while Bournemouth haven't scored since the restart. Just one team to score is -158 for this one, and the two most likely scorelines (2-0 and 3-0 United wins) both involve DDG clean sheets, with 2-0 United at +480.
I'm also interested in Rui Patrício ($10). Priced near Schmeichel, who has much better win odds, Patricio profiles as a pivot pick, and this Wolves defense has allowed zero goals and just three total shots on target across their three post-break matches.
Added time -- No other keeper should garner much attention on this slate, but if I had to pick one, I'd look at Palace's Vicente Guaita ($9). His salary frees you up to get to a four-man attacking group that most people won't have the money for, and with Leicester in a funk, he could surprise despite being an underdog. This is too risky for me, though.