FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 6/19/20
|Fixture||Favorite||Over 2.5 Goals||Most Likely
|Southampton at Norwich City||Southampton (+120)||-118||Ings/Pukki (-110)|
|Manchester United at Tottenham||Man United (+140)||-108||Rashford (+115)|
This is a really fun two-match slate as it's hard to pick a winner in either match, opening up a ton a viable paths to roster construction.
While the headline game of the day is undoubtedly Spurs-Manchester United, I think the more fun match from a fantasy perspective is going to be the Southampton-Norwich City clash. It's got better odds to go over 2.5 goals, and it features two of the three worst defenses in terms of most goals allowed. Yes, please.
Norwich aren't as bad as their league-worst -27 goal differential would have you believe. Their expected goal differential, per FBRef, is -12.8. Southampton have also been rather unlucky this year, with their expected goal differential (-1.2) much better than their actual goal differential (-17).
Danny Ings ($18) and Teemu Pukki ($17) are a bit under-priced as FanDuel made the studs from the other game super expensive. Pukki and Ings are both at -110 to score anytime, the best odds on the slate, and I expect them to be fairly popular. Of the two, I like Pukki better because I think Ings will see more ownership with the Saints favored, and I'm kind of into Norwich on this slate.
Norwich's Todd Cantwell ($13; +240 to score) and Emiliano Buendía ($14; +650) are attractive point-per-dollar plays. Prior to the break, Cantwell had created two chances in three of his last five matches, and he's second on the Canaries in shots per game (1.3). Buendía is averaging 16.1 FanDuel points per game for the season and has seven assists. Both are solid one-off plays as well as stacking partners for Pukki.
The Saints' James Ward-Prowse ($16; +280) has been a high-floor option most of the year due to his monopoly on set pieces. He takes corners, free kicks and penalties. The only worry with JWP is that he's sometimes been deployed at full-back instead of in midfield, which hurts his DFS outlook. Luckily, we'll know Southampton's lineup at the first lock as they're in the early game.
As far as the Spurs-Man United match, this could go any number of ways, and I wouldn't be surprised by any of them. Tottenham were skidding, but they should have a few of their best players back from injury. United -- a slight road favorite (+140) -- were playing well before the break, winning three of four, including victories over Chelsea and Manchester City.
For Man United, Marcus Rashford ($22; +115) and Paul Pogba ($16; +260) are expected to be fully recovered from their pre-break ailments. Rashford has the best anytime goal odds in the match and has served as the Red Devils' penalty taker for much of the season, a boon for his fantasy prospects if he keeps that role.
I like Bruno Fernandes ($17; +210) on this slate more than either of them. The Portuguese playmaker has made an immediate impact for United, and it's carried over to DFS as he's averaging 30.3 FanDuel points per game since his January move, failing to go under 20 points in any game. He handles some corners and free kicks, and he has also taken one pen. The spot kick came when Rashford was out, so time will tell who is United's top choice on penalties.
Tottenham (+195) have pretty blah win odds on the slate, and the thought of getting Harry Kane ($23; +130) or Son Heung-min ($20; +190) at lower ownership is awfully appealing. Both are coming back from injuries and may not play the full match, but WhoScored has them as probable starters.
Son had nine goals and seven assists in 20 EPL starts before going down, showcasing some of the best form of his career. Son actually paces Spurs in shots per game (3.0). His all-around contributions raise his floor and ceiling. Kane is heavily reliant on goals, so the floor is low, but he is one of the world's best goal-scorers and takes penalties.
Added time -- Anthony Martial ($19; +130) could go under-owned, but he has the second-best goal odds in the Spurs-United matchup and may start in a number-nine role. ... Giovani Lo Celso ($13) is a question mark with a groin injury, but he was on corner duty for Spurs before the shutdown. ... With Shane Long expected to be out for the Saints, Che Adams ($10; +210) could start up top and would be a sweet value target given his anytime goal odds.
The balanced nature of this slate means we don't have underdog defenders we can lock in for their floors, and we also don't have full-backs on big favorites who we can count on spending a ton of time forward in attacking areas. As such, ownership should be pretty spread out at defender.
Norwich are awfully short-handed at the back right now, and Timm Klose ($5) could be thrust into a starting role. If he is, he's easy to like at this price as he should be fairly busy with Norwich having the slate's worst win odds. He's worth using in any format, especially small-field contests.
Victor Lindelöf ($8) is a cheap expected starter and is another solid small-field play. He scored at least 10 FanDuel points in five of six games before the break.
My hunch is that people won't want to pay up into the top tier for defenders on this slate, so Serge Aurier ($14) and Ryan Bertrand ($13) are savvy GPP plays.
Bertrand is normally a steady producer -- between 9.9 and 14.2 in each of his last five games before play was halted -- and should spend some time in attacking areas. He's been credited with at least one chance created in nine straight EPL matches and makes sense as a stacking partner with a Saints attacker. Aurier's +1100 anytime goal odds aren't bad for a defender, and he created at least two chances in four of his last eight pre-break outings.
Added time -- I'm into Norwich on this slate, so I like either of Max Aarons ($11) or Jamal Lewis ($13). Aarons normally offers more going forward. ... Ben Davies ($9) is another cheap expected starter at full-back who I can stomach.
I am sending my thoughts and prayers to you as you make a choice at keeper.
Just like defender, the lack of clarity in betting favorites for this slate means it's really hard to figure out what to do at goalie, and ownership should be spread out. Whatever you do at keeper should align with the rest of your lineup, so don't stack Kane and Son and then pay up for David De Gea ($13).
You could talk me into any of the four expected starters, though I don't have much conviction with any of them.
I expect Alex McCarthy ($11) to be the most popular keeper target. He's cheap and has the best win odds, so it makes sense. But I don't mind Tim Krul ($8) on the other side of that game because I think he'll be busy and can envision Norwich getting a surprise win. With how bad these two defenses have been this season, the Canaries-Saints match isn't the place to go for a clean sheet.
Usually, the most expensive keepers are low-volume plays with good win odds. Well, De Gea doesn't have good win odds, but United have been pretty great defensively this campaign, including allowing only one goal over their last five EPL matches. That's helped DDG go for 20-plus FanDuel points four times in that span.
Added time -- You can make a case for Hugo Lloris ($9), too. He's cheap, and it's certainly within the realm of possibility that he gets a win.