Champions League Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 12/11/19
The Champions League, the best soccer competition on the planet, is back, and FanDuel is offering plenty of contests for all of Wednesday's matches, including the two early fixtures. This article will focus on just the main slate, which starts at 3 p.m. EST.
|Wednesday, December 11th|
|Red Star at Olympiacos|
|Real Madrid at Club Brugge|
|Spurs at Bayern Munich|
|Lokomotiv Moscow at Atlético Madrid|
|Juventus at Bayer Leverkusen|
|Galatasaray at PSG|
Per FanDuel Sportsbook, this slate has four big favorites, led by PSG and Atlético Madrid, both of whom are -650 home favorites. Bayern Munich is a -290 home favorite over Spurs, while Olympiacos is a -210 home favorite versus Red Star.
PSG and Real Madrid have already moved on from Group A, and we could see both teams rotate their squad. That's certainly reflected in the line for Real Madrid, as they are just +120 to win at Club Brugge. Bayern and Spurs have also clinched a spot in the knockout round as have Juve. Atlético and Bayer Leverkusen are scrapping for the second spot in Group D, so both sides should field their best XI.
João Félix ($15) -- With most of the top sides on this slate, we're stuck guessing at what they'll do with their lineup since they've already locked up a spot in the next round. That's not the case with Atlético Madrid, who needs to win at home versus Lokomotiv Moscow. That makes Atléti especially appealing, and they are a massive -650 home favorite, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The end product has been lacking for Félix in his first season in Madrid, as he's got just two goals and one assist in 11 La Liga starts. But the 20-year-old should spend a lot of time in dangerous areas on Wednesday and has the ability to unlock a defense with his passing and/or dribbling. He's -120 to score anytime in this match.
Álvaro Morata ($16) -- Sticking with Atléti, Morata has netted a team-best five goals in domestic league play for a side that's struggled in attack (no one else has more than two). Everything we just said about Félix also fits here, as Morata should be a focal point for a side that desperately needs to win. He's tied with Félix for the best anytime goal odds (-120) in this one, and an Atléti stack is fully in play.
Neymar ($22) -- PSG don't need to win against Galatasaray, but oddsmakers expect them to roll anyway, making them -650 to take all three points. It'll be imperative to check the starting lineup, but whoever PSG put out there in attacking spots will be attractive plays. WhoScored has Neymar projected to start in a front three alongside Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting ($12) and Pablo Sarabia ($14). If that's how it works out, Choupo-Moting and Sarabia would be smashing values, and Neymar -- who has six goals and one assist in eight Ligue 1 starts -- would offer slate-changing upside against an overmatched Galatasaray side. If PSG use a different front three, those players will be enticing, too. In short, you want exposure to PSG.
Robert Lewandowski ($24) -- Lewandowski broke the slate last time out in UCL play at Red Star, scoring 95.6 FanDuel points in a four-goal effort. He's been in incredible form this year, tallying at least one goal in every UCL outing while posting outputs of 43.3, 55.5, 49.3 and 49.3 FanDuel points before nearly hitting triple digits at Red Star. Lewa has put a total of 20 shots on target in five UCL matches, and he's been every bit as immense in the Bundesliga, scoring 16 times in 14 starts. He'll be on penalties, and as long as he's in the lineup, he's one of the slate's top choices, as Bayern are comfortable -290 home favorites against Tottenham. He's -290 to score, tops on the slate.
Youssef El-Arabi ($16) -- Olympiacos will likely fly under the radar on a slate with so much star power, but they're -210 home favorites -- fourth-biggest on the slate -- for their home matchup with Red Star. El-Arabi had a 16-goal campaign with Granada in Spain a year ago, and he's netted six goals with three assists in 10 Super League starts with Olympiacos this season. He's taken one penalty, which boosts his DFS outlook, and he netted a goal against both Spurs and Bayern earlier in UCL group play. The Greek side shouldn't see too much ownership, but they have a good shot to score a couple goals versus Red Star.
Joshua Kimmich ($14) -- Kimmich is a loophole because he's listed as a defender but is deployed in midfield at times, which is what WhoScored projects to happen against Tottenham. Being a defender on FanDuel keeps his salary down while giving him access to a potential clean-sheet bonus, and playing as a midfielder gives him ample opportunity to advance up the pitch. Last weekend, Kimmich was heavily involved in a key domestic clash with Borussia Mönchengladbach, racking up eight crosses while making five tackles. His crossing ability makes him a great stacking partner with Lewandowski or any Bayern attacker.
Ferland Mendy ($10) -- Wednesday's match at Club Brugge doesn't mean much for Real Madrid, and oddsmakers are expecting a weakened Real lineup, giving the Spanish giants just +120 odds to win. Regardless of how much they rotate, they'll still have the talent advantage over Brugge, and if Mendy starts, he offers enticing upside in defense. Last season in Lyon, Mendy scored two goals with one assist. He hasn't been involved with a goal yet in his first season with Real Madrid, but in a match in which his team should see plenty of the ball, Mendy has a chance to have a good fantasy day if he starts.
Ryan Donk ($8) -- Donk is a classic cheap dart throw on a big underdog. On the road at PSG, Galatasaray's back line should be under siege, giving their defenders a high floor as they amass clearances, interceptions and tackles throughout the match. Donk has played in each of Galatasaray's five UCL matches this season, but if he's not in there Wednesday, any starting defender for the Turkish side should offer a useable floor.
Jan Oblak ($12) -- Oblak checks every box. Is he good? One of the best in the world. Great shot at a win? Healthy -650 home favorites. How's the price? Surprisingly modest. The only issue here is Oblak's likely high ownership, but in a crucial match against a lesser side, he's got really good clean-sheet win odds. Each of the three most likely scorelines, per FanDuel Sportsbook, involves an Atléti clean sheet. You can stack him with an Atléti defender -- Renan Lodi ($11) isn't too pricey and offers attacking upside from his full-back spot -- to try to double-up on the clean-sheet bonus.
Keylor Navas ($15) -- Navas also has great clean-sheet win odds, but with him priced as the most expensive keeper, he shouldn't see as much ownership as Oblak does, making the PSG goalie a sweet GPP play. According to oddsmakers, the two most likely scorelines in this match involve a PSG clean sheet. If you can find the extra cash, Navas makes a lot of sense.