3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 12
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features five matches.
|Saturday, November 9th
|West Ham at Burnley|
|Everton at Southampton|
|Bournemouth at Newcastle|
|Sheffield United at Tottenham|
|Arsenal at Leicester City|
The 12th main slate of the season features two big-six sides in Tottenham and Arsenal and is highlighted by an afternoon clash between the Gunners and Leicester City. Tottenham is the largest favorite on the slate, with an implied win probability of 64.3% at home against Sheffield United. Outside of Spurs, the slate is projected to be very closely contested. Leicester City is the next largest favorite with an implied win probability of just 48.8%.
Newcastle, Burnley and Everton are all slight favorites in pick'ems, creating a very even slate headlined by two big-six sides in terrible form. Tottenham is still likely to see the highest levels of ownership on the slate due to a lack of other elite options, but ownership as a whole should be very spread out.
On top of their poor form, both big-six sides are also coming off midweek fixtures in Europe and will have just two days to recover.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider this weekend -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Harvey Barnes, MID/FWD, Leicester City
FanDuel Salary: $15
While Arsenal's outlook and ownership will be diminished by their recent form and a difficult matchup with Leicester City, they will likely still be viewed in a positive enough light to keep ownership on the Foxes down. Leicester City's primary stars, Jamie Vardy ($20) and James Maddison ($18), should be decently popular, but the Foxes' fringe players who have been performing well -- such as Barnes, Youri Tielemans ($14), and Ayoze Perez ($14) -- may go overlooked.
Of that trio, Barnes is the most expensive and should have the lowest ownership. Tielemans is a fan favorite and an explosive prospect who has two goals in his last three matches, while Perez is only one game removed from a 78.2-FanDuel-point performance against Southampton.
Barnes has only scored once this season, but he has three assists, three shots on goal, and seven chances created in his last three matches combined. He is likely to go under-owned despite facing an Arsenal side that has conceded seven goals in their last five away matches and hasn't kept a clean sheet on the road in the Premier League since the middle of August.
There is a slight misconception that Leicester City's current position on the league table (second) is a byproduct of the struggles of the usual contenders: Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester United. The reality is that Leicester City is playing excellent soccer, especially at home, where they average 2.4 goals per match and have won four in a row. While Leicester City should be viewed as a difficult matchup for Arsenal, it's certainly possible that the same shouldn't be said about the reverse. Leicester City's implied goal total of 1.77 goals is second on the slate and only slightly behind Tottenham's implied total of 1.87.
Ashley Barnes, MID/FWD, Burnley
FanDuel Salary: $14
Chris Wood could return from a hamstring injury that has kept him out for several weeks, but even if he does, Barnes is in a great spot. Burnley's implied goal total of 1.60 is the third-highest on the slate, and they have been a much better side at home this year. In their five home games, Burnley has three wins and two losses, with both losses coming to big-six sides in Liverpool and Chelsea. In their other three home matches -- against Southampton, Norwich and Everton -- they combined to score six goals and concede none.
Barnes himself has the sixth-best odds to score on the slate and the best odds of anyone outside of Tottenham, Arsenal, and Leicester City. Barnes' FanDuel output hasn't been great since a strong stretch to start the season, but he is capable of a big game under the right circumstances, which is what he will have this weekend.
West Ham has been decent on the road this campaign, with only one loss in fives matches, but cracks have started to show in their recent fixtures. Over their last two away matches, they have conceded two goals each to Bournemouth and Everton, and over their last five matches, including home and away, they have conceded an average of two goals per match. Burnley and Barnes are set up for success this weekend.
Alex Iwobi, MID/FWD, Everton
FanDuel Salary: $13
Things are bad for Southampton right now. They have conceded 21 goals over their last six matches, including 9 to Leicester City in a single game, and haven't won since the middle of September. They have kept just two clean sheets all season, and while their recent schedule hasn't been kind, pitting them against Manchester City, Leicester City, Chelsea, and Tottenham in four of their last five, there haven't been any signs of a turnaround.
Everyone is in play against Southampton.
Enter Alex Iwobi, who has scored double-digit FanDuel points in each of his last three matches with a combined four shots on goal and three chances created. He has started the last four games for Everton, playing over 87 minutes in three of those four, and should see a large number of minutes against the Saints. His recent production combined with a meeting versus a defense as poor as Southampton's creates a great outlook.
Everton hasn't been great this season, but they have slowly started to turn things around in the final third with five goals in their last three matches. Their implied goal total of 1.45 goals is the fourth-highest on the slate and above Arsenal's. They have struggled on the road this campaign, with one draw and four losses in five away matches, but against Southampton, they should be able to find success.