NHL Betting Guide: Monday 6/14/21
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Canadiens moneyline (+194): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Canadiens +1.5 (-134): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Habs are well-rested ahead of Game 1, having dispatched the Winnipeg Jets in four games in their second-round matchup. Montreal held on for a couple of close victories, but the advanced metrics support that their series was never really that close.
Montreal posted a cumulative expected goals-for percentage of 62.0% at five-on-five in their second-round series, with a range of 59.9% to 63.7%.
That is consistent and dominant effort. The Habs relied on tidy defensive efforts to limit the Jets' scoring, allowing more than 19 scoring chances and nine high-danger chances at five-on-five just once in the series.
Consequently, the Jets scored only six goals through the four games, with just two of those coming from high-danger areas.
The Golden Knights come into this series getting outplayed at five-on-five in each of their last two games against the Colorado Avalanche. The Knights gave up a combined 52 scoring chances and 12 high-danger opportunities at five-on-five, getting out-possessed, out-shot, and out-chanced in scoring chances in both games.
However, the Knights still came out on top in those games, inflating their PDO in the process.
Vegas has posted a PDO of 1.070 across all strengths and 1.082 at five-on-five over their four straight wins, bringing their playoff averages above 1.000. That makes them susceptible to regression as their metrics will have to start coming down eventually.
Based on our projections, the market has overreacted to the Golden Knights chances tonight, leaving an edge in backing the Habs.
That aligns with our analysis, as the Knights can't continue to get outplayed and win, while the Habs are rested and playing an outstanding brand of playoff hockey.
Backing Montreal on the moneyline and puckline are both one-star plays.