FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Buccaneers at Packers
On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Green Bay Packers are 3.5-point home favorites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Sunday's NFC title game. The total is up at 51.0 points, implying a 27.25-23.75 win for the Pack.
Per our oddsFire tool, money is pouring in on Green Bay and the over. Of bets on the total, 72% of the wagers and 77% of the money is backing the over. On the spread, 82% of the money and 77% of the bets are taking the Packers to cover 3.5 points.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
This past offseason, our Brandon Gdula did a deep dive on single-game strategy. It's worth checking out before you make your lineups.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers ($16,000)
This game sets up well for Aaron Rodgers.
In a contest with a lofty total and facing a pass-funnel defense, Rodgers should have to air it out. The Bucs are a good all-around defense, but they've definitely been more forgiving to the passing game. Tampa Bay ranks as the league's best run D, per our schedule-adjusted metrics, and they've permitted the fourth-fewest FanDuel points per game to running backs (17.1). Meanwhile, the Buccaneers sit seventh in pass defense and have surrendered just the 15th-fewest FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (19.2).
Yes, Rodgers was awful in the first meeting with Tampa Bay, scoring a season-low 5.80 FanDuel points. That game was an extreme outlier, however, as he hasn't put up fewer than 18.32 FanDuel points in any other outing and has scored at least 25.54 in each of the last three games -- two of which came against the stout defenses of the Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears.
Our model projects Rodgers for a slate-best 21.2 FanDuel points and rates him as the premier point-per-dollar play despite his slate-high salary. He'll likely be the chalk MVP pick, but he could smash here.
Tom Brady, Buccaneers ($15,500)
While Tom Brady's fantasy production was all over the place during the first half of the year, he's been consistently good over the last five games, posting between 22.16 and 31.26 FanDuel points in each contest in that span. After torching the porous defenses of the Atlanta Falcons (31.26 FanDuel points) and Detroit Lions (29.92) in the final two regular-season games, Brady has generated 23.04 and 22.16 FanDuel points in tough road matchups against the Washington Football Team and New Orleans Saints in the playoffs thus far.
The Packers' D presents another stiff challenge as they have given up the fourth-fewest FanDuel points per game to signal callers (16.8). But Brady has shown he can deliver in difficult matchups, and we project him for 18.6 FanDuel points. Unlikely to see as much MVP love as Rodgers does with the betting public heavily favoring the Packers, Brady is a fun pivot in the multiplier spot.
Davante Adams, Packers ($15,000)
My favorite MVP play on this slate is Davante Adams, and he's the only non-quarterback our algorithm has going for more than 14.0 FanDuel points.
Most of what I rattled off for Rodgers applies for Adams. If the Packers' run game can't get going, they'll have to go to the air, and that's money for Adams. The Bucs aren't a bad pass D by any means, but they gave up 31.1 FanDuel points per game to wideouts, just the 14th-fewest. And Tampa Bay also permitted some big games to receivers over the second half of the season. Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods got to them for 20.0 and 24.6 FanDuel points, respectively, in Week 11. Tyreek Hill detonated on the Bucs for 51.4 FanDuel points in Week 12, and Calvin Ridley put up 27.3 FanDuel points in Week 15.
Adams' season-long usage is as good at it gets. His 34% target share paced all receivers, and his 38% air yards share was the sixth-best clip, according to AirYards.com.
We have Adams scoring 17.7 FanDuel points, and he could have a ceiling game against the Bucs.
Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers ($11,000)
Leonard Fournette needs to be on the MVP radar, and he's a savvy pick as he won't be a chalk MVP play but isn't a super weird choice, either.
Fournette clearly ran in front of Ronald Jones ($10,500) in the win over New Orleans, playing 49 snaps to Jones' 21. He finished with 17 carries and hauled in five of six targets, with the targets ranking second on the team. Fournette has logged 23 and 22 touches in Tampa Bay's two postseason games. The matchup with Green Bay is the best one yet for Fournette in these playoffs. The Packers have allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs (24.1), and Fournette's pass-game role -- 10 targets over the last two games -- should keep him busy regardless of how the game script plays out.
Could the Bucs get Jones more involved this week with reports saying Jones is getting healthier? Yes, they could. But with the success the Bucs have had riding Fournette, there isn't much reason for them to change it up.
Our model forecasts Fournette for 11.4 FanDuel points and rates him as the top point-per-dollar play among those with a salary under $12,500.
Chris Godwin, Buccaneers ($12,000)
We project Godwin as the best option among the Buccaneers' receivers, putting him down for 11.6 FanDuel points -- 1.3 more than the higher-salaried Mike Evans ($14,000).
Godwin led the Bucs wideouts in snaps last week and has seen 19 total targets in the team's two postseason matchups, pacing them in targets in both contests. We'll have to see which Bucs receiver draws the short straw of Jaire Alexander's coverage, but with Godwin coming from the slot on 55.8% of his snaps in 2020, he probably won't see as much of Alexander as Evans does. That's definitely a big boost for Godwin and a huge negative for Evans, who was shut down by Alexander in the regular-season clash.
Godwin-Brady stacks won't be nearly as popular as Rodgers-Adams stacks, so loading up on Godwin and Brady is an appealing leverage play.
Allen Lazard ($9,000) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8,500), Packers
Using Allen Lazard this week feels like point chasing after his long touchdown last time out resulted in his best FanDuel output (17.3) since Week 3. Lazard is still a good process play, though. He's operating as the number-two wideout by a wide margin as Lazard's 54 snaps last week were 18 more than any other Green Bay receiver not named Adams. The splash play is what most will remember, but he finished with eight targets, so he wasn't totally reliant on the big play.
The slate-changing outing last week will surely up Lazard's popularity this week, but our model has him as the best point-per-dollar play among those with a salary under $11,000. We project him for 8.6 FanDuel points.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8,500) is a pivot off Lazard. Despite playing fewer snaps than Lazard last week, MVS got the same amount of targets (eight). He turned them into only four catches for 33 yards, but we know he's capable of hitting on a chunk play, which makes him ideally suited for single-game slates.
Jamaal Williams, Packers ($7,000)
Sometimes in the playoffs, teams ramp up the snaps of their best players, and that's usually most notable (for fantasy) in backfields, where teams usually opt to lean more heavily on their top back. Well, that didn't happen at all for Aaron Jones ($12,500) last week against the Rams. Jones played on 62% of the snaps and accounted for only 43% of the Packers' running-back carries. That coupled with Tampa Bay's excellent run D makes Jones a tough sell at his salary, though he always possesses big-play upside and touchdown equity.
On the flip side, Jamaal Williams was in on only 19 fewer snaps than Jones last week and recorded just three fewer touches, including splitting work evenly (four touches apiece) inside the 10. While I think Jones probably gets more run in this one than he did against LA, last week's usage undoubtedly makes Williams a superb value option.
Our projections have Williams with only 5.6 FanDuel points, but he's the top point-per-dollar value by a good distance among players with a salary under $8,500.