4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 13
On the Week 13 FanDuel main slate, there are eight games with an over/under of at least 47.0 points, which makes for some nice team and games stacks across the league. There are also seven teams implied to score at least 26.50 points, which should lead to some high-scoring players.
In this article, I will reflect my favorite DFS stacks for this week. These decisions are made by using player projections, Vegas implied team totals and player draft percentage projections.
Green Bay Packers
The first stack I like this week is a Green Bay Packers stack with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. The Packers play the Philadelphia Eagles at home as 7.5-point favorites and have an implied team total of 28.25 points -- which is the fourth most on the main slate.
It’s been nothing short of impressive to watch Rodgers play football this season. He’s thrown for 33 touchdowns and has only four interceptions as we head into the final month of the regular season -- making himself a solid candidate for the 2020 league MVP. He’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in all but one game, including eight games in which he’s had at least three scores. That’s translated to him scoring 20-plus FanDuel points in all but two games this season and an average of 23.89 FanDuel points per game.
The Eagles are a vulnerable team right now, having lost three straight games and sitting toward the bottom of a weak NFC East division. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Eagles' defense ranks 25th overall with a 49.9 coverage grade this season. Rodgers should be able to take command of this game and continue his recent dominance.
I like pairing him with Adams, his number-one receiver. These two continue to be lights out, and there is no sign of them slowing down . The two have combined for 11 touchdowns in nine games and currently have a six-game touchdown streak going. Why not go back to them again this week?
Per our projections, no other wide receiver is expected to score more FanDuel points than Adams this week. He ranks within the top three at the position in all of receptions, receiving yards, targets and touchdowns among all wide receivers.
While Adams is expected to be shadowed by Eagles’ top cornerback Darius Slay, that isn't something that should concern you too much. Adams has dominated Slay when they’ve faced each other in the past.
Davante Adams vs. Darius Slay in Week 13
Adams vs. DET/Slay, 2018-19:
- 9-140-1, 12 (7-99-1, 9 vs. Slay)
- 7-93-1, 13 (4-63-0, 5)
That's 16-233-2 on 25 targets vs. Slay's team and 11.6 yards per target and a 78.6% catch rate vs. Slay directly.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 30, 2020
Adams has essentially been matchup-proof all season anyway, and I don't envision Slay slowing him too much. Per PFF, Adams has a 23% advantage over Slay this week.
After being benched in Week 8 for rookie Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick probably didn’t know if he’d ever play another NFL snap. But it only took five weeks before he was back at the helm as the Dolphins' starting quarterback, picking up right where he left off at the beginning of the season.
I should note Fitzpatrick wasn't benched because of bad play earlier this year, but rather because the Dolphins wanted to see what their 2020 first-round pick (Tua) could do. Unfortunately for Tagovailoa, he missed Week 12 with a thumb injury and is in jeopardy of missing Week 13, as well. This stack hinges on Tua sitting again this week, and it sounds like that very well could be the case:
From @GMFB: The status of #Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is truly up in the air for Sunday. pic.twitter.com/kHwOc12tUv
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 4, 2020
Assuming Fitzpatrick gets the start, I love the matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals' defense has struggled throughout most of the 2020 season, particularly on the road, where they’ve allowed 28.7 points per game to their opponents, the sixth most across the league.
In the seven games Fitz has started this season, he’s thrown for more than 300 yards or multiple touchdowns six times. He’s also not afraid to run the ball, either, having averaged 20.7 rushing yards per game this season and scoring two rushing touchdowns. This has ultimately led to Fitz putting up 24.32, 24.20, 21.30, 27.60, 16.04, and 19.28 FanDuel points in the games in which he's started since Week 2, which excludes a season-opening dud at the New England Patriots.
Again, assuming Fitz gets the start this week, I like stacking him with Parker. All of Parker’s best games so far this season have come when Fitz was the Dolphins’ starting quarterback. We saw that again last week against the New York Jets, when Parker was targeted 14 times and had 119 receiving yards -- both season-high clips for the wide receiver.
That shouldn’t come as a surprise, as these two showed solid chemistry basically throughout the 2019 season -- particularly down the stretch after Preston Williams went on IR back in Week 9 last year. In the eight ensuing games after Williams’ injury, Parker averaged 9.5 targets, 100.0 receiving yards and 0.62 touchdowns per game.
Now, we’re back to the exact same scenario, as Williams is on IR and Fitz is set to potentially start again. If Fitz is a go this week, Parker could have himself a day.
After Dalvin Cook's disappointing Week 12 outing, I’m going back to the well this week. You could argue that last week was really the first time Cook disappointed in terms of fantasy production all season, as he’s essentially dominated in every game this year.
Now, Cook gets a chance to redeem himself against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have allowed 24.3 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs this season, the fifth most in the NFL. They also have the second worst run D, per our schedule-adjusted metrics.
It should be known that Cook saw his snap count drop to 63% in Week 12, but a lot of that is due to a mid-game injury that forced him to the sidelines. A lower snap count doesn’t seem to be a trend we should expect going forward. Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak made a statement earlier this week that the Vikings expect to get Cook back to being himself in Week 13
#Vikings Gary Kubiak on KFAN on Dalvin Cook "He’s just beat up He’s been hit pretty hard the last couple of weeks taking some poundings .. It’s at that point of the season so we’ve got to get him freshened up this week & get him back to being himself .. He’s just kind of beat up"
— Chris Tomasson (@christomasson) December 1, 2020
Per our algorithm, Cook is expected to smash the Jags this week, and he currently leads all running backs in projected FanDuel points. Assuming he gets his normal snaps, he should have his way with this defense.
The Vikings are 10.5-point home favorites against the Jags and lead the entire main slate with a 31.0-point implied total. This is an ideal situation to stack a home favorite running back with a defense.
While the Vikings' defense hasn’t necessarily been one to fear this season, they have a great opportunity to make some noise this week against this Jacksonville offense -- particularly due to Mike Glennon starting at quarterback for the Jags.
Glennon played surprisingly well in his first start of the season last week against the Cleveland Browns. However, over the course of his seven seasons in the NFL, Glennon has played 30 games and has thrown just 38 touchdowns passes while turning the ball over 28 times.
Stacking Cook with the Vikings' D/ST is a great way to attack this matchup.
The last stack I like this week is a Tennessee Titans stack with Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown. The Titans are set to face the Browns at home in what could be a shootout. This game currently leads the main slate with a 53.5-point over/under, and the Titans implied to score 29.5 points, the second most on the main slate.
After averaging 23.8 FanDuel points per game throughout the first five games of the season, Tannehill was off to arguably the best start of his NFL career. Since Week 6, Tannehill has taken a step back in terms of fantasy production and has averaged just 17.2 FanDuel points per game over his last six games. However, in those six games, the Titans have had to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts (twice) in four of them. All three of those teams rank as top-10 pass defenses by our metrics.
This week, Tannehill has a chance to get back to his early-season fantasy numbers, as he’s set to face a Browns defense that we have 25th versus the pass.
As you might expect, that has led to wide receivers posting solid numbers against the Browns' defense. Cleveland is currently allowing 32.4 FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers, which ranks as the 10th most across the league. That’s why I like pairing Brown with Tannehill.
Since the start of last year, which was Brown's rookie campaign, no other wide receiver has averaged more yards per target than Brown (11.3 yards). Through nine games this season, Brown has managed to reel in eight touchdowns. He’ll have a great chance to continue finding the end zone this week against a beat-up Browns secondary, which will be without its top two cornerbacks, Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams.
Per PFF, Brown is expected to be shadowed by Terrance Mitchell. While Mitchell has been solid at times this season, Brown has been much better. PFF is currently giving Brown a 23% advantage in this matchup, the 12th biggest edge among all receiver-cornerback matchups on the main slate.
Griffin Swanson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Griffin Swanson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username GriffDogg_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. (edited)