4 NFL DraftKings Values for Week 10
Fantasy value doesn't have one concrete meaning. In season-long leagues, one might say that value is dictated by a player's total or weekly output versus their average draft position. In daily leagues, most players are measuring value by a player's output per $1,000 in salary -- in other words, the bang you get for your buck.
Finding cheap players in high-scoring games or with big matchup upside is pivotal to paying up for high-priced players such as Patrick Mahomes and Alvin Kamara. The combination of the two is what can drive tournament-winning lineups or ones that will help you cash (in 50/50s, etc.) on a consistent basis.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. It can depend on position, situation, or even site. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced under $5,000, and tight ends priced under $4,000.
Some value plays will be obvious and might be rostered in a high percentage of lineups, while others will be more off-the-radar which could differentiate you from other lineups. We're here to parse through the data and information to find both types of low-cost-high-reward plays on a weekly basis.
Let's see who you should be fitting into your Week 10 lineups.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
DraftKings Price: $5,600
Projected Points: 18.0
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.22
Last week, Derek Carr left a lot to be desired against the Los Angeles Chargers' pass defense. However, a large part of that disappointment can be chalked up to volume, as Carr was limited to 23 pass attempts and 165 yards (not to mention a lost fumble). But he did add a pair of scores on his way to 15.0 DraftKings points, so the Chargers remain a second-tier defense to target via the pass.
By our numbers, they rank 11th in defensive efficiency against the pass, yet Pro Football Reference tells us that they have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks. They are one of seven teams to allow at least 1,400 air yards and have given up 3 rushing touchdowns on 16 quarterback rushing attempts. That bodes well for hyped-up rookie Tua Tagovailoa.
Following a very odd, defensive-driven start to his career in Week 8, Tagovailoa turned around to post some very good numbers a week ago. On 28 pass attempts, Miami's new quarterback completed more than 71% of his passes for 248 yards and 2 scores. He also contributed 35 yards on 7 rushing attempts in the winning effort. The opportunity is there in what figures to be a good matchup on his home turf, and as we'll see Tua is a prime target to stack at a value in tournaments and GPPs.
Mike Davis, RB, Carolina Panthers
DraftKings Price: $4,000
Projected Points: 18.2
Projected Value: 4.55
Unfortunately, it looks like the Christian McCaffrey comeback season will be short-lived. After injuring his shoulder in Week 9, the Carolina Panthers' star back is not expected to play against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as he is consulting doctors further for second opinions. That would lead us to believe that Mike Davis will return to the starting role in Week 10.
In his previous time as the team's primary back Davis was a very solid performer. His per-carry and per-target efficiency metrics are far off those of McCaffrey, but the veteran back still managed double-digit fantasy points in five of seven games. He even enjoyed back-to-back-to-back games of 22 or more. And as a result, his salary shot from $4,000 in Week 2 to $5,100 in Week 3 before it peaked at $7,000 in Week 6. When he's been the main guy Davis has been a player worthy of a tag in the $6,500 ballpark, but he isn't priced like one going into this week.
The argument against rostering Davis this week comes down to matchup. The Bucs are second against the rush and second overall as a defense, all allowing a very OK 22.7 DraftKings points per game to backs. But the brunt of that production has been through the air, with Tampa giving up 59 catches and 417 yards on the 73 balls thrown the way of opposing backfield pieces. Back in Week 2 Davis turned his 8 targets into 8 catches and 74 yards against this very team. By our projections, he's the top point-per-dollar play regardless of position.
Jakeem Grant, WR, Miami Dolphins
DraftKings Price: $3,00
Projected Points: 11.2
Projected Value: 2.39
Like Tua, the Dolphins' passing targets are in line for a solid game. Without the services of the departed Desmond King, in addition to the injured Chris Harris and Derwin James, the Chargers are down to one opening starter in the secondary, and it has shown. Although they are in the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to wideouts, over the past three weeks they have allowed 7 catches of at least 26 yards and 4 of 40-plus. That includes last week's long-bomb touchdown to Nelson Agholor.
Mistakes, in the form of blown coverages, have been frequent for the hurting Chargers, and Jakeem Grant is the most likely beneficiary. Grant is set for big snaps given the departure of Isaiah Ford via trade and the departure of Preston Williams via IR. Outside of Ford, Williams, and DeVante Parker, Grant has the most targets (24) and catches (18) among Miami wideouts, edging out the next-closest player -- Mack Hollins -- by 23 and 17 in those two categories.
The fifth-year receiver has shown the ability to break a big one. Not only has he done so as a kick returner, but in each of his first two seasons with at least 20 targets he had a catch of 52 or more yards, and another of 30 this season. He is a YAC monster with a top-20 target separation to boot. Don't be afraid to pair him with Tua in order to get up to high-priced backs this week.
Austin Hooper, TE, Cleveland Browns
DraftKings Price: $3,900
Projected Points: 10.9
Projected Value: 2.79
The Cleveland Browns' offense won't look like the same as it did a few weeks ago. Coming off their bye, they will be without Odell Beckham, but at the same time, Nick Chubb is "progressing" and could play this week. But the same goes for tight end Austin Hooper, who returned to practice Wednesday and is said to "definitely" be ready for Sunday's game against the Houston Texans.
Hooper will return just in the nick of time. The Browns are in need of playmakers, and the Texans have been hit up quite well through the air. They are 26th against the pass and have allowed some good numbers to tight ends. In conceding 14.8 DraftKings points per game to the position, they have done so despite limiting them to four touchdowns. No other team in the top 10 in tight end production against has given up fewer than six, while two of them have done so on fewer targets. In fact, according to JJ Zacharison, Houston has allowed a respectable 22.3% target rate to tight ends.
At 31.36%, the Browns have targeted tight ends at the third-highest rate in the league from Weeks 5 to 9. Hooper played in only two of those, so he will aim to do even more to reap the benefits of a balanced Baker Mayfield-led attack. We expect him to do so, projecting him as the best value play at the position.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.