NFL Betting Guide: Week 8
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Seahawks Moneyline (-144): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Seahawks -2.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5
After suffering their first loss of the season on Sunday night -- a thrilling 37-34 overtime affair against the Arizona Cardinals -- the Seattle Seahawks will look to move to 6-1 as they host the last-in-the-NFC West San Francisco 49ers in Week 8.
Both teams enter with beaten-up running attacks. Case in point, the only Seattle running back who practiced on Thursday was DeeJay Dallas.
The Seahawks, of course, have been known as a team who likes to run the
ball. In the last two seasons, they finished first and sixth in rushing
play percentage. That hasn't been the case in 2020, however.
Led by what is looking more and more like a historic season from Russell Wilson (who is on pace for his first 5,000-yard season and a staggering 58.7 passing touchdowns)
the 2020 Hawks have passed 61.5% of the time, the ninth-highest mark in
the league and 7.1 percentage points higher than last year. If they
need to fall back to the run, they can again look Wilson's way as he's
on pace for 632 yards, which would be the second-highest rushing output
of his career.
Seattle has won 11 of their past 15 games as home favorites. If Wilson is again tasked with an air-heavy attack, it could bode well. The Seahawks are 9-2 straight up (SU) and 7-3-1 against the spread (ATS) the past 11 times Wilson has thrown for at least 300 yards. The Seahawks are 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 home games off an away loss.
numberFire's models like the Seahawks in this one. We give them a 69.8% chance of winning and a 65.2% chance of covering the 2.5-point spread. We mark both bets as three-star plays.
Giants +11.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5
Being large underdogs shouldn't come as a surprise to the New York Giants, who come into this week at 1-6, last place in the dismal NFC East. Despite their atrocious record, which is tied for the second worst in the league, the team hasn't been getting blown out in games, making our models 'think' that the 11.5-point spread is too large.
New York has scored just 17.4 points per game, the second-lowest mark in the league. Despite that anemic offensive output, four of the team's six losses have come by just one score, and they've lost by 10 or fewer in five of those six.
They'll face a difficult test in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week, who at 5-2 lead the NFC South. The Bucs' only two losses this season have come on the road, and they're facing a team who they've historically struggled against. The Bucs have gone 1-7 SU and ATS in their past eight against the Giants and, amazingly, haven't won in New York since 1997.
This is the first time an away team has been favored by double-digit points after an away win of at least 20 points since the coincidentally Tom Brady-led New England Patriots faced the Jay Cutler-led Miami Dolphins in Week 14, which resulted in a 27-20 Dolphins win.
Our models don't see Brady losing again in this scenario, but they do predict a closer game than the line would suggest. We have the Bucs projected to win by 7.9 points this week. We give the Giants a 62.4% chance of covering the 11.5-point spread and mark a bet on them to do so as a three-star play.
Under 50.0: 4-Star Rating out of 5
Just seven weeks into the season, it already looks like a two-team race in the AFC South. The Indianapolis Colts come into Week 8 at 4-2, one game behind the division-leading Tennessee Titans. They'll look to keep pace as they travel to Michigan this week to take on the Detroit Lions.
The Colts' strong start can be highly attributed to their defense, which has given up the fourth-fewest points per game and second-fewest yards per game while owning a plus-three turnover differential. They are currently the 12th-best defensive team in the league, according to numberFire's metrics.
The under has gone 2-0-1 the past three times the Colts have played in a game with a 50-point total. The Lions have already played in five such games this season, with the under going 3-2.
Through the first five weeks of this season, the under was just 1-6-1 when home teams have been underdogs with totals of 50 or more points. Since then, however, the under has gone 5-3-1 in that situation.
numberFire's models project the Colts to win here and the under to cover easily. We give the under a 71.2% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a strong four-star play.