4 NFL DraftKings Values for Week 8
Fantasy value doesn't have one concrete meaning. In season-long leagues, one might say that value is dictated by a player's total or weekly output versus their average draft position. In daily leagues, most players are measuring value by a player's output per $1,000 in salary -- in other words, the bang you get for your buck.
Finding cheap players in high-scoring games or with big matchup upside is pivotal to paying up for high-priced players such as Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey. The combination of the two is what can drive tournament-winning lineups or ones that will help you cash (in 50/50s, etc.) on a consistent basis.
Everyone has their own idea of where the salary cutoff for a value player is. It can depend on position, situation, or even site. For DraftKings, this article looks at quarterbacks who are priced under $6,000, running backs and wide receivers priced under $5,000, and tight ends priced under $4,000.
Some value plays will be obvious and might be rostered in a high percentage of lineups, while others will be more off-the-radar which could differentiate you from other lineups. We're here to parse through the data and information to find both types of low-cost-high-reward plays on a weekly basis.
Let's see who you should be fitting into your Week 7 lineups.
Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders
DraftKings Price: $5,500
Projected Points: 19.6
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.56
This week, there are a few low-salary quarterbacks worth a look. Derek Carr sticks out for a few reasons, starting with his opponent, the Cleveland Browns. By our metrics, Cleveland has been better against the rush than the pass, ranking 21st in the former and 29th in the latter. So it makes sense that they are also 21st against quarterbacks in DraftKings scoring, as they've allowed two games of at least 387 passing yards as well as two more of at least 270.
The Las Vegas Raiders are seventh in passing yards per game, but even better, they are tied for fourth with 8.2 yards gained per attempt, according to Pro Football Reference. And our numbers point to them as the fourth-most efficient passing offense in the league.
With Darren Waller, Nelson Agholor and a healthy (and more involved) Henry Ruggs, Carr is equipped with the weapons to put up a big score against Cleveland. He is not only our top value at the quarterback position, but he's the top value on the slate across all positions.
Le'Veon Bell, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
DraftKings Price: $4,600
Projected Points: 11.2
Projected Value: 2.44
You may give this a look and say, "Wow, he's really buying into the revenge narrative." While you would be somewhat right, that Le'Veon Bell will be one motivated back on Sunday, it's not all narrative when it comes to a juicy matchup with the New York Jets.
Through seven weeks, the Jets are the seventh-worst defense against running backs, and they have been a boost to RB2s. According to our advanced stats, they are 28th against running backs in that role. Most notably, Jerick McKinnon put up 13.7 DraftKings points in Week 2 while Chase Edmonds tallied 20.2 in Week 5, both having done so on limited touches.
The game environment couldn't be sweeter for Bell to get his against Adam Gase and company. The Kansas City Chiefs are favored by 19.5 with a 34.25 implied total at Arrowhead, so the combination of a blowout and big points for the KC offense could lead to a lot more looks for Bell and fewer for rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. This is one of those instances where the narrative and the matchup mesh for a no-brainer play.
A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
DraftKings Price: $4,500
Projected Points: 11.6
Projected Value: 2.57
Among a number of games with a over/under of 50-plus points, the Cincinnati Bengals and Tennessee Titans figures to be the most fantasy-friendly clash. A 53.5-point total leads the slate and lands Joe Burrow and the Bengals with a 24.0-point implied total -- a tad above their season average. But probability favors them scoring more than the oddsmakers indicate.
Following last week's 27-24 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Titans' defense has allowed 27 or more points in four of their six matchups. And further, Football Outsiders shows that Tennessee has operated at the fourth-fastest pace in neutral situations, averaging one fewer second per play than Cincinnati does.
That is good news for the entire Cincinnati receiving corps, but while others gravitate to Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green might be able to be rostered at lower popularity despite a pair of solid outings of late. Over his last two, the veteran has garnered a combined 24 targets for 15 catches and 178 yards. His outputs of 17.6 and 15.2 DK points were respectable, but if you were to add a touchdown to his ledger, you would be looking at well over 20 points at a value of nearly five points for every $1,000 of his salary. This could be the week you get that top-of-the-ceiling result.
Irv Smith, TE, Minnesota Vikings
DraftKings Price: $3,000
Projected Points: 6.7
Projected Value: 2.22
It's slim pickings below the $4,000 threshold at tight end, but there are options -- none with more promising upside than Irv Smith Jr.. The second-year tight end has yet to truly break out for the Minnesota Vikings, but in his six games, he's on track to nearly double his production from last year. He has only 10 catches, but eight of those have come in his last two games, in which he has catches of 25 and 36 yards, leading to double-digit DK points in each.
It took Smith some time to get involved in the offense, but it looks like he is finally there with the chance to show he was worthy of the preseason hype. It wouldn't be surprising to see Minnesota get Smith more involved after their bye given what he has shown in recent games, and that could certainly be the case for a divisional clash against the Green Bay Packers.
Sitting as 6.5-point underdogs on the road at Lambeau, the Vikings are going to have to pass often. The thing is, Jaire Alexander and the Green Bay secondary have done a good job shutting down opposing wideouts, whereas they are in the middle of the pack against fantasy tight ends. Kirk Cousins might have to funnel more looks to his promising tight end, and at only $3,000, a few catches or a score could go a long way in opening up value elsewhere.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.