FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 3
Welcome to our weekly FanDuel NFL primer, where we give you an overview of the Sunday main slate to help you get started on your research.
As always, we recommend checking out all of numberFire's daily fantasy tools at your disposal. In particular, our weekly projections can help you nail down who might be the slate's top scorers and best values, while the heat map is a great way to get a general overview of the slate's implied totals and every team's strengths and weaknesses.
Now, let's run through some of this week's top plays of the slate.
Russell Wilson ($8,700 on FanDuel): Russell Wilson leads all players in FanDuel points through two weeks, and there's little reason to turn away from him with another potential shootout on deck against the Cowboys, who have been playing at the league's fastest pace. This spot has the highest total on the board (55.5), and Wilson leads all starting quarterbacks in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back. Sure, he won't toss four or five scores every time, but he's got the weapons, matchup, and rushing ability for another lucrative week.
Kyler Murray ($8,400): Kyler Murray is neck-and-neck with Wilson for top honors at the position, and it's actually Murray who pops up first in numberFire's projections. This Arizona-Detroit matchup features a robust total (55.0), and the Lions rank 32nd in schedule-adjusted defense, per numberFire's metrics. Murray's rushing contributions have been amazing thus far, piling up 158 yards and 3 scores on 21 attempts.
Cam Newton ($7,700): And speaking of great contributions on the ground, no quarterback has rushed as many times as Cam Newton has, and he's turned 26 attempts into 122 yards and 4 touchdowns. Honestly, with so many running quarterbacks at our disposal these days, it's getting harder and harder for traditional pocket passers to keep up in fantasy. Newton proved he has no problem slinging it, too, this past week, and he should continue to be a one-man wrecking crew for the Patriots, who own the fourth-best implied total (26.25) at home against the Raiders.
Ezekiel Elliott ($9,000): The Cowboys' workhorse back leads the position in snap rate (90.3%), and he's averaging 22 rushes and 5.5 targets through the first two weeks. He's numberFire's top projected back, and we shouldn't overthink his delectable potential in what should be a high-scoring game versus Seattle.
Derrick Henry ($8,200): Derrick Henry is coming off modest back-to-back outings by his standards, as we're reminded that his lack of consistent passing game work (five total targets) lowers his floor even in positive game scripts. Still, Henry leads the league in rushing attempts (56), and only Josh Jacobs has earned a higher market share of team opportunities (46.2%). The touchdowns will come soon enough. Minnesota hasn't been terribly effective at stopping the ground game, as they rank 22nd in adjusted run defense through two weeks.
Miles Sanders ($7,400): Any doubts about Miles Sanders' workload following his hamstring injury were quickly squashed last week against the Rams. Sanders rarely left the field (77.5% snap rate) and racked up 20 carries and 7 targets in a negative game script. With Carson Wentz really struggling, we should expect the Eagles to continue leaning heavily on Sanders at home against Cincinnati.
Jonathan Taylor ($6,700): Jonathan Taylor is a top point-per-dollar value in numberFire's projections, and this week's spot versus the woeful Jets sets him up beautifully for another voluminous day at the office. In Week 2, Taylor saw 26 carries and 2 targets against the Vikings, with Nyheim Hines (1 target) and Jordan Wilkins (9 carries) taking a backseat. It's crystal clear whose backfield this is, and the Colts are 11.5-point home favorites over New York.
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500): No one has more targets than DeAndre Hopkins through Week 2, and he boasts a 35.7% target share on a fast-paced Arizona offense. He's the obvious stacking partner with Kyler Murray and projects for far and away the most FanDuel points at wideout.
Allen Robinson ($6,900): Allen Robinson hasn't popped in a game yet and is still tied to Mitchell Trubisky, but the Falcons are a delightful Week 3 matchup. Atlanta has been playing at a grueling pace, and their pass defense ranks 30th by numberFire's metrics. Those factors have led to the Falcons' first two games reaching totals of 79 and 63 points. Obviously, the Bears' offense isn't likely to match the outputs of the Seahawks or Cowboys, but this 48.5 total is still among the best on the slate. Robinson has nine targets in each of the first two games and is one of just five wideouts projected to hit that mark this week.
Tyler Lockett ($6,800) and D.K. Metcalf ($6,500): The great thing about stacking the Seahawks is you know where Russell Wilson's targets are going every week. Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf have notched 16 and 14 targets, respectively, and no other player on the team is in double-digits. The two have combined for nearly half of the team's targets as well as a whopping 81% of the air yards. Best of all, neither one has a particularly high salary.
Michael Gallup ($5,700) and CeeDee Lamb ($5,600): We're definitely going to want to stack up the Cowboys' side of this game, too, and any exposure we can get will be welcome. Getting up to Amari Cooper ($7,000) is ideal, but Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb can be used in a pinch when saving salary. Gallup is second on the team in air yards, while Lamb is second in targets.
Darren Waller ($6,600): Darren Waller not only leads all tight ends in target share (38.7%), but he would actually lead all wideouts, too. Of course, much of that is due to a 16-target Week 2 outburst, which we can't expect every game, but few tight ends can even dream of that kind of ceiling. The matchup isn't great against the Patriots, but neither was last week's against the Saints, and we saw how that turned out.
Dallas Goedert ($5,200): If you're looking to save at the position, it's hard to not like Logan Thomas ($4,900) again this week, but for just $300 more, Dallas Goedert projects as numberFire's top point-per-dollar tight end. Goedart is tied with Thomas for the third-most targets at the position (17), and he's actually out-targeted teammate Zach Ertz ($6,200). With Jalen Reagor ruled out, volume should continue to flow to the tight ends. Wentz has been awful to begin the season, but this will be a much easier matchup compared to his first two opponents.
Cleveland D/ST ($3,900): The Browns project as a fantastic value defense against Washington. Only Deshaun Watson and Wentz have been sacked more times than Dwayne Haskins, and Washington is the second-biggest underdog of the slate (7.5 points).
Tampa Bay D/ST ($3,800): Tampa Bay gives us another low-cost option as they're up against a Broncos team without Drew Lock and Courtland Sutton. Backup quarterback Jeff Driskel has a 1-7 career record as a starter and averaged negative Passing NEP per drop back in three starts for Detroit in 2019.