NFL

Hammer the Under on Jerry Jeudy’s Player Props

With the 15th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Denver Broncos selected wide receiver Jerry Jeudy to line up alongside Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and fellow draft pick K.J. Hamler -- making it no secret that they are preparing for shootout matchups in a high-powered AFC West.

In a division with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, the entire division made multiple draft selections with the intention of spreading weapons all over the field on offense.

Denver's moves give Drew Lock an array of targets at his disposal, but will that dilute Jeudy’s production in his rookie season?

Jeudy is a very good player, to say the least, and FanDuel Sportsbook agrees. With his receiving yardage and touchdown lines being higher than any other rookie receiver available on the site, it shows that he is expected to perform at the highest level among this class of wideouts. Let’s take a look at those prop bets.

Receiving Yards

FD Sportsbook: 774.5 (-112)

Jeudy is as exciting a wide receiver prospect as we have seen in a while. He is a phenomenal route runner and creates separation with ease.

In his final season at Alabama, Jeudy finished with 77 receptions, 1163 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns, on a catch rate of 75.5%. He is elusive and can gain chunks of yardage after the catch, making him a big-play threat.

The main concern the way the Broncos spread the ball on offense. While Sutton was given most of the volume last year, there were six additional receivers who recorded at least 30 targets and 150 receiving yards. That leads to genuine concerns that Jeudy will not receive enough volume to reach this line as the WR2 in Denver.

Add in Hamler and Melvin Gordon to the mix, and there is even more uncertainty surrounding Jeudy’s role. The only major change to the offense in 2019 came via the trade of Emmanuel Sanders, and that did not coincide with a major boost to any one receiver.

Additionally, running backs accounted for 25.2% of Denver's targets last year, and that's a number which is unlikely to go down with Gordon joining the team.

This will be the first full season Lock leads the offense. Last season, he threw for 1,020 yards in 5 starts. While he was efficient, it is going to take a major jump in volume and performance to see Jeudy reach the yardage line.

Given that the Broncos had the ninth-lowest pass-to-run ratio and then went out and signed Gordon, a major uptick in volume is highly unlikely.

The Pick

Our projections favor the under and forecast Jeudy to finish with 725.26 receiving yards.

It is hard to imagine him topping that, given the way Denver spreads the ball and the fact that he's unlikely to see enough targets.

Receiving Touchdowns

FD Sportsbook: Over 5.5 (-102), Under 5.5 (-126)

In Alabama, Jeudy was a frequent visitor to the endzone. In his sophomore and junior season, he scored a total of 24 touchdowns.

Last season, Denver only had one player score over 5 receiving touchdowns, and that was Sutton with 6. Outside of that, no player had more than 3.

With the backfield duo of Gordon and Lindsay, there's a good chance that Denver will be a force on the ground. In the five games Lock started, he averaged just 1.4 touchdowns per game. Unless that number takes a big leap in 2020, it is unlikely that there will be sufficient scoring opportunities for Jeudy to capitalize on.

The Pick

numberFire projects Jeudy to finish with 4.04 receiving touchdowns, significantly below the current line of 5.5. With the depth of Denver's backfield, it is very possible that the running game will see a larger increase in scoring opportunities than the passing game -- that doesn't bode well for Jeudy.

The under is a good play here as well.