4 NFL FanDuel Value Plays to Target for the Divisional Round
One of the crucial aspects of daily fantasy football is unearthing cheap production.
Our projections can help you do just that by allowing you to sort players by their point-per-dollar value. A lot of times, the top value plays come as a result of injury situations, meaning it's imperative to see inactives before setting your lineups.
This article will cover the Saturday-to-Sunday slate. When looking for a salary-saving option, check out one of these players this week.
Deebo Samuel, WR, Niners ($6,100)
The San Francisco 49ers are 7.0-point favorites with a solid 25.75-point implied total, and their pass game is a three-headed monster. According to our Brandon Gdula, since San Fran traded for Emmanuel Sanders, George Kittle owns a team-best 30.4% target share, Sanders is second at 20.3% and Deebo Samuel has seen 17.5% of the looks.
Those are the only three guys with double-digit target shares since Sanders came to town, and while Sanders -- who is priced at $5,700 -- is a good value in his own right, let's get into Deebo.
The rookie has offered a nice floor/ceiling combination lately. Here's his FanDuel outputs from Week 10 to Week 17 (starting with Week 10): 15.2, 17.4, 12.0, 13.1, 13.4, 4.2, 13.9 and 29.7 points. In Week 17, with a lot on the line, Samuel delivered a ceiling game against the Seattle Seahawks, and prior to that one, he'd scored at least 12.0 FanDuel points in six of his past seven.
The Niners are up against the Minnesota Vikings, a team that allowed the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to receivers (31.0). So the usage is there, the matchup is there and the price is nice. There's a lot to like with Samuel this week, and our models have him as the best point-per-dollar play on the Saturday-to-Sunday slate among wideouts who are cheaper than $6,500.
Will Fuller, WR, Texans ($5,600)
After getting in a limited session on Thursday, Will Fuller appears to be on track to play for the Houston Texans in their road date with the Kansas City Chiefs. Fuller's status may have a big impact on how fantasy-friendly this game is. It's been well documented how much better Deshaun Watson's numbers are with Fuller on the field, so the speedster's impact on Houston is obvious. But Fuller playing would also give Kansas City's outlook a boost as a healthy Fuller can help the Texans stay close, forcing KC to keep their foot on the gas.
Assuming Fuller gives it a go, he's very appealing at this price tag. In the nine games in which Fuller has played relevant snaps this season, Houston's target shares have been 28.8% for DeAndre Hopkins and 24.5% for Fuller -- while no one else is above 13.0%. Fuller has a 37.4% air yards share in that split, too, which tops Hopkins' mark of 30.7%.
That's game-breaking usage at $5,600.
When these two teams met in Week 6, Fuller finished with five catches and 44 yards on nine targets, but it could've been a much bigger day as Fuller dropped three catchable bombs. According to AirYards.com, Fuller saw a whopping 158 air yards in that game. With Kansas City a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday, it would make sense for Houston to be extra aggressive once again, giving Fuller a monster ceiling.
Fuller -- assuming he plays and there are no reports of him being limited -- can be a cheap inclusion to a game stack and gives you economical exposure to an elite usage profile.
Marquise Brown, WR, Ravens ($5,300)
Marquise Brown has a lot of boom-or-bust to his game.
Taking a meaningless Week 17 affair out of the equation, over his last seven outings of the season, Brown went for at least 12.5 FanDuel points three times. In the other four games, he combined for 6.3 FanDuel points. That's not ideal, but for $5,300, we can stomach it to get a piece of one of the slate's top offenses.
The Baltimore Ravens carry a 28.25-point implied total, the second-best of the weekend, and Brown has seen a respectable 16.1% of the targets in this offense since their Week 8 bye (not counting Week 17). If you're stacking Lamar Jackson, the best partners to pair with him are Mark Andrews and Brown, and making the right choice there can have a massive impact on a small slate.
Our models have Hollywood as the best point-per-dollar wideout of the weekend among those cheaper than $5,500.
Duke Johnson, RB, Texans ($5,600)
Duke Johnson has a low floor, but there are paths to him having a good fantasy day -- and nearly all of said paths involve the Texans getting behind versus Kansas City. That game script is firmly on the table with Houston a 9.5-point 'dog, and if that's how the game goes, Johnson should be on the field plenty, giving him a chance to thrive in his pass-game role.
Per our Brandon Gdula, Johnson has played 59.9% of the snaps in losses this season. In Houston's six defeats, Johnson has averaged 3.5 catches, 27.7 receiving yards and 34.0 rushing yards -- compared to averages of 2.3 catches, 24.4 receiving yards and 20.6 rushing yards in wins.
Those splits aren't super drastic, but Johnson makes sense as a third running back in a lineup if you're stacking the Chiefs and want to run it back with some Texans.