3 NFL Prop Bets to Target for Week 15
FanDuel Sportsbook provides a variety of lines, player props, and parlays, allowing people to showcase their knowledge.
Player props closely mirror the game of fantasy football, giving you a chance to stay involved in a familiar way. With Week 15 on the horizon, here are a few standout prop bets for Sunday's action this week.
Matt Ryan - Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-112)
After a sound 313-yard performance against the Carolina Panthers in Week 14, Matt Ryan enters this week with a prop of 253.5 passing yards. Despite a tough matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, the over on Ryan's prop appears to provide some value.
Last week, Ryan recorded his second consecutive game of 300-plus passing yards. With Ryan throwing the ball 40.1 times per game, only Tom Brady and Andy Dalton average more passing attempts on a weekly basis. Given Ryan's voluminous role, our projections slate him for 292.72 passing yards this weekend, giving him nearly 40 yards of value on his listed prop.
Looking at matchup, the 49ers' secondary certainly raises concern. As a unit, they enter Week 15 as the second-best pass defense, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics. However, they will play Sunday's game far below full strength. At the moment, Richard Sherman, Jaquiski Tartt, Dee Ford, and K'Waun Williams have all been ruled out. In this spot last week, Drew Brees hung 349 passing yards on the 49ers.
With a matchup that's not as bad as it looks and immense volume working in his favor, Ryan's passing yardage prop looks like a solid bet. A $100 wager on Ryan eclipsing 253.5 passing yards this weekend returns $89.29.
Phillip Lindsay - Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
With at least 16 carries in back-to-back games, Phillip Lindsay looks like a potential target this week with a lowly 64.5 rushing yardage prop. Already eclipsing that mark five times this season, a number of variables point to a strong performance from Lindsay.
With Drew Lock taking over the quarterback position, the Denver Broncos decided to shift their running back timeshare in Lindsay's direction. Last week, Lindsay played 53 percent of Denver's snaps to Royce Freeman's 46 percent. He also out-carried Freeman 16-8. According to our models, Lindsay projects for 73.97 rushing yards this week, giving him almost 10 yards of value on his prop.
Digging into the matchup, Lindsay faces a Kansas City Chiefs defense that ranks 29th against the run, according to our metrics. Somewhat concerning, bookmakers project the Broncos as 9.5-point underdogs, but Denver continues to feed Lindsay in all game scripts.
With the Broncos surging of late, Lindsay's rushing yardage prop looks like a value this weekend. Right now, a $100 bet on Lindsay besting 64.5 rushing yards nets $89.29.
Tyreek Hill - Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Quiet of late, Tyreek Hill has only 117 receiving yards combined over his last two games. However, with recent performance suppressing his receiving yardage prop, Hill looks like a solid bet to eclipse 76.5 receiving yards this weekend.
Taking a look at what our models say, Hill currently projects for 93.91 receiving yards. Providing more than 10 yards of value, Hill is more than capable of dicing up this Denver defense. While the Broncos rank sixth in overall pass D, according to our metrics, DeAndre Hopkins provided a recipe for taking advantage of this matchup. Last week, he posted 120 yards and a touchdown on seven catches versus this D. With Hill commanding 41 percent of Kansas City's air yards and 22 percent of the targets, he is a value this week.
One of Week 15's premier buy-low candidates, Hill should be able to eclipse 76.5 yards this weekend. A $100 bet on Hill in this spot nets $89.29.