Fantasy Football: Gdula's Game Notes for Week 14
numberFire has no shortage of tools -- lineup generators, fantasy projections, and more -- to help you round out your rosters, but some extra prep never hurt anyone. So, here are some notes to know about each and every game on FanDuel's main slate for Week 14.
San Francisco at New Orleans
Washington at Green Bay
Baltimore at Buffalo
Miami at NY Jets
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay
Denver at Houston
Detroit at Minnesota
Carolina at Atlanta
Cincinnati at Cleveland
LA Chargers at Jacksonville
Pittsburgh at Arizona
Tennessee at Oakland
Kansas City at New England
Core Plays: Players suited for all types of daily fantasy games -- cash games and tournaments -- and players to target when building a main lineup.
Secondary Plays: Players who have good matchups or situations but are overpriced. Or players who are affordable but have tough matchups.
Tournament Plays: Players with paths to production but who are either overpriced or have tough matchups and who rate out with low production floors. Not everybody is in play in DFS, but players without the best prices and matchups still deserve consideration in large-field tournaments.
San Francisco at New Orleans
|Matchup||San Francisco||New Orleans|
|Over/Under | Spread||44.5||-2.5|
|Implied Team Total||21.0||23.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||76%||29%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||83%||33%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||15||28|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||1||8|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||9||8|
This game isn't really that appealing upon a deeper look because we're dealing with two good teams and two good defenses here. There won't be weather concerns, but there sure are market share concerns. The heavy betting action is on the over, though, and a few plays do stand out. It could be back-and-forth, so it's ripe for game stacks but not full of plays suited for cash-game builds.
San Francisco Offense Notes
- In five games against top-12 pass defenses, Jimmy Garoppolo ($7,800) has averaged 6.91 yards per attempt for 207.2 yards and 1.4 touchdowns.
- In four games with George Kittle ($6,700) and Emmanuel Sanders ($5,900) healthy, the San Francisco 49ers' target shares have been: 26.0% for Kittle, 21.0% for Sanders, and 16.0% for Deebo Samuel ($6,000) before a drop off. Kittle emerges as the best DFS option here, as the New Orleans Saints rank 24th in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends but 6th against receivers. Sanders could deal with a good bit of Marshon Lattimore.
- The backfield is guaranteed to be a mess with Matt Breida ($5,600) likely to return and muddy the waters more for Tevin Coleman ($5,500) and Raheem Mostert ($6,200). In four games with all three playing more than 10% of snaps, nobody has had even half of the team's carries. That distribution very much in the cards this week in a vital game.
New Orleans Offense Notes
- Since returning, Alvin Kamara ($7,600) has played 78.3%, 61.4%, 66.7%, and 82.0% of snaps. He has earned a 76-31 opportunity lead over Latavius Murray ($5,300), putting to rest the talks of splitting work. Kamara has had 10, 10, 9, and 8 targets in the past four games.
- Since a Week 9 bye, the Saints' target market shares favor Michael Thomas ($8,600) at 29.9% and Kamara at 25.2%. Jared Cook ($6,500; 17.7%) has carved out a significant role since returning from injury in that span. Nobody else has a bankable target share. San Francisco is top-three in Target Success Rate allowed to both receivers and tight ends. It's a poor on-paper matchup no matter how you view it.
- Drew Brees ($7,700) has played just one top-12 pass defense this year but carved up the Carolina Panthers in it (311 yards and 3 touchdowns). No Saints are entirely safe plays, but Thomas and Kamara are top-two options at their positions based on my projections.
Core Plays: George Kittle, Alvin Kamara
Secondary Plays: Michael Thomas, Jared Cook
Tournament Plays: Emmanuel Sanders, Drew Brees
Washington at Green Bay
|Over/Under | Spread||41.5||-13.0|
|Implied Team Total||14.25||27.25|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||78%||63%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||83%||84%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||29||18|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||26||13|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||20||31|
Washington Offense Notes
- Dwayne Haskins ($6,500) ranks 47th among 49 passers with at least 60 attempts in Passing NEP per drop back.
- In Haskins' starts, Terry McLaurin ($5,600) has 24.1% of the targets and 39.5% of the air yards but averages just 6.5 FanDuel points per game. He gets high-leverage work and targets in the end zone, but Haskins just hasn't hit him. McLaurin is worth some tournament exposure if game stacking this one. Kelvin Harmon ($4,800) has a decent 17.6% target share in the games with Haskins starting and 19.8% over the past three games with an expanded role.
- Derrius Guice ($6,300) has averaged a 34.1% snap rate in three games since returning while maxing out at 43.3%. Adrian Peterson ($5,700) has averaged a 31.4% snap rate, maxing out at 35.9%. Green Bay ranks 31st in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs. Neither are particularly in play, but Washington could erase play volume by running at the Packers.
Green Bay Offense Notes
- Aaron Rodgers ($8,400) has a high ceiling if the game sticks close, but there are pace and blowout concerns. Rodgers leads the NFL's 7th-best adjusted pass offense against the 26th-ranked defense. In six games against bottom-half pass defenses, Rodgers has averaged 296.0 yards and 2.3 touchdowns.
- Davante Adams ($8,400) runs into the same issue of volume concerns despite an elite matchup. He has a 33.9% target share since returning from his injury -- plus 40.9% of the team's air yards. Washington is 30th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers.
- Behind Adams, it's all dispersed. Running back Jamaal Williams ($5,600) is second in target share in that span (14.5%), followed by Allen Lazard ($5,600) at 11.5%.
- Aaron Jones ($7,800) has played 51.3% and 58.2% of snaps in two post-bye games. Williams has a 47-44 opportunity edge over Jones in the past three games. Game script sets up for him to feast on a mid-level rush defense.
Core Plays: Davante Adams
Secondary Plays: Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers
Tournament Plays: Allen Lazard, Terry McLaurin, Kelvin Harmon
Baltimore at Buffalo
|Over/Under | Spread||44.0||+5.5|
|Implied Team Total||24.75||19.25|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||75%||16%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog||89%||11%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||32||14|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||5||7|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||29||27|
The Baltimore Ravens should be able to thrive with their run-first offense (they're 32nd in pass rate over expectation). The Buffalo Bills are 24th in pass rate over expectation. Play volume could be limited here. The over/under reflects that, but the heavy action is on the over.
Baltimore Offense Notes
- Lamar Jackson ($9,000) has averaged 181.0 passing yards and 1.0 touchdowns in six games against top-12 pass defenses. The efficiency is better than the average in that split, but Jackson's rushing is what makes him so valuable. Buffalo is 27th against the rush.
- Since Marquise Brown ($5,500) returned in Week 9, Mark Andrews ($6,600) leads with a 20.7% target share (just 4.8 targets per game). Brown is at 18.1% (4.2 per game). Jackson hasn't thrown 25 passes in six straight games. Buffalo is top five in Target Success Rate allowed to both positions.
- Mark Ingram ($7,400) hasn't had more than 15 carries in seven games and has been boosted recently by receiving touchdowns. He has averaged a 45.0% snap rate over the past five games. Gus Edwards ($5,000) has averaged a 36.6% snap rate but doesn't have enough usage to be relevant. He does take enough from Ingram to make the pricier back a tournament-only option.
Buffalo Offense Notes
- In two games against top-12 pass defenses, Josh Allen ($7,800) has accumulated 419 yards, 0 passing touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, en route to a Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back of -0.19. The NFL average in that split is -0.03.
- The offense changed in Week 8, giving Devin Singletary ($6,700) a more featured role. Since then, John Brown ($6,400) leads the team with a 28.4% target share and a 44.9% air yards share with a 14.3-yard average target depth. Cole Beasley ($6,100) has 20.7% of the targets but very little deep work. Baltimore has rated out easier in the slot, ranking 13th in slot yards per snap allowed. They're 3rd in Target Success Rate overall.
- Singletary has a solid 14.2% target share (4.0 targets per game) since his role expansion, and he has played at least 66.1% of snaps in every game. His role is quite good, and the Ravens are weak against backs (26th in Rushing Success Rate and 23rd in Target Success Rate).
Core Plays: Lamar Jackson
Secondary Plays: Devin Singletary, Mark Andrews, John Brown
Tournament Plays: Marquise Brown, Mark Ingram
Miami at NY Jets
|Over/Under | Spread||45.5||-5.5|
|Implied Team Total||20.0||25.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||64%||28%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||53%||63%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||5||12|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||32||24|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||25||2|
A second-time-around divisional matchup between two afterthought offenses doesn't inspire a ton of DFS appeal, but there's some stack-ability here, and the total is trending up.
Miami Offense Notes
- Since losing Preston Williams, the Miami Dolphins' offense has been very concentrated on DeVante Parker ($7,200), who has 27.1% of the targets, 44.1% of the air yards, and 57.9% of the deep targets in this four-game span. The New York Jets do rank 11th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers, but Parker has cleared 10 targets in four straight games. He's just expensive.
- Michael Gesicki ($5,400) is the easier justification at his salary. He has a 16.8% target share and has played at least 81.9% of snaps in these four games. While the snap rate has been up all season, the targets are flowing his way. The Jets are sixth against tight ends.
- Patrick Laird ($5,500) could have attrition-based low-end value with Kalen Ballage on injured reserve. However, the Jets have the 2nd-best rush defense in football and are 13th in Target Success Rate allowed to backs.
NY Jets Offense Notes
- Le'Veon Bell ($7,300) gets a bottom-five running back defense in both rushing and receiving terms but has not run for more than 70 yards in a game yet. The Jets are 32nd in yards before contact generated for backs; Miami is 27th defensively. I'll likely be suckered into playing Bell in cash games again. He's the third-best running back play in my model.
- Since getting Sam Darnold ($7,700) back in Week 6, the targets have been pretty evenly dispersed. Jamison Crowder ($6,000) leads (21.8%), followed by Robby Anderson ($6,400; 18.7%), Demaryius Thomas ($5,000; 17.5%), Bell (13.9%), and Ryan Griffin ($5,600; 13.1%). The deep targets favor Anderson (35.0%) and Thomas (20.0%), but Crowder leads in red-zone share. If Darnold cashes in on the great matchup, they'll have value, but we're still dealing with a receiver committee.
- All six of Darnold's most recent games were against pass defenses outside the top 20. In them, he has averaged 259.2 yards and 1.7 touchdowns on 34.3 attempts.
Core Plays: Le'Veon Bell
Secondary Plays: Sam Darnold, Jamison Crowder
Tournament Plays: Robby Anderson, Mike Gesicki, DeVante Parker
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay
|Over/Under | Spread||46.5||-3|
|Implied Team Total||21.75||24.75|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||57%||46%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||58%||19%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||27||4|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||17||15|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||18||1|
The total is trending down after opening at 49.5 points, and the Indianapolis Colts can really slow things down on the road. There's bust potential in this game, though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a narrow set of relevant assets.
Indianapolis Offense Notes
- Jacoby Brissett ($7,400) has played four healthy road games. He has averaged 27.3 attempts and 154.0 yards. The efficiency has been fine, based on NEP, but the volume is just low. The Bucs are first in adjusted rushing defense, so it'll be telling to see if the Colts run into the wall or not.
- Last week without Hilton and Eric Ebron, Jack Doyle ($6,300) saw 11 targets, and Zach Pascal ($6,100) had 10. Doyle is priced up for a matchup with the NFL's 15th-ranked tight end defense. Pascal led the way with 43.2% of the air yards last week (127) and is the only other bankable pass-game asset here. The Buccaneers' pass defense is league-average on receivers, and the volume concerns push Pascal into game-stack territory.
- Jordan Wilkins ($5,500) got up to 44.4% of the snaps last week, and Nyheim Hines ($5,600) played 43.1%. Wilkins did get 3 targets while running 37.2% of the routes (16 total). Hines ran 53.5% of the routes (23) but had 2 targets. It's uncertain if Jonathan Williams ($5,900) will regain any role in Week 14, and the matchup makes them all afterthoughts.
Tampa Bay Offense Notes
- Jameis Winston ($7,700) has underperformed the NFL average in Passing NEP per drop back on the year but gets a middling matchup this week. He snapped a six-game streak of 300-plus yard games last week when getting just 268 in windy conditions. He's a bounce-back candidate.
- The Buccaneers' pass game has had some tweaks since their Week 7 bye with Breshad Perriman ($5,500) getting more involved. Mike Evans ($7,700) has a 25.5% target share, Chris Godwin ($7,900) has a 20.5% target share, and Perriman has a 10.9% target share. Of concern, Perriman has eaten away some deep work from Godwin, but Evans remains a downfield threat with 39.7% of the deep targets (a league-high 3.8 per game in this sample).
- O.J. Howard ($5,400) is priced well and has played 98.8%, 25.0%, 77.3%, and 87.3% of snaps the past four games. Excluding that clunker when he got benched for causing an interception, his target share is a respectable 14.3%.
- We shouldn't chase a two-touchdown game from Peyton Barber ($5,700). He played 39.5% of snaps, and Ronald Jones ($5,800) was limited to 27.6% of the snaps after blowing a blocking assignment. Barber has just once played more than 40% of the snaps and has 16 targets all season.
Core Plays: Jameis Winston, Mike Evans
Secondary Plays: Jack Doyle, Chris Godwin
Tournament Plays: Zach Pascal, O.J. Howard
Denver at Houston
|Over/Under | Spread||41.5||-9.5|
|Implied Team Total||16.0||25.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||87%||55%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||98%||48%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||16||17|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||14||19|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||12||19|
The total is tiny, but everyone is on the over. The Houston Texans are heavy favorites. It's just mid-range defenses with average paces. Market shares are pretty concentrated. It's a pretty nice under-the-radar game stack candidate.
Denver Offense Notes
- Drew Lock ($6,800) was decent in his debut against a Los Angeles Chargers defense that just got healthy. Lock had a 6.6-yard average target depth and just 4.79 yards per attempt but was above the NFL average in terms of Passing NEP per drop back (barely). Point being: he was an efficiency upgrade over Brandon Allen.
- Lock's target distribution: 5 for Courtland Sutton ($7,300), 5 for Jeff Heuerman ($4,200), 4 for Royce Freeman ($5,300), 3 for Noah Fant ($4,800), 3 for DaeSean Hamilton ($4,600), and 2 for Tim Patrick ($5,100). Sutton also led with 3 of 7 deep targets and 93 air yards (53.8%). Fant's price dropped after a 5-yard dud last week, yet he had a deep target and a red zone target and still played 71.9% of the snaps. He's a great bounce-back option based on volume, even though Houston is second against tight ends.
- While Freeman has led the backfield in snaps in eight of the past nine games, the recent usage has favored Phillip Lindsay ($6,400). In three post-bye games, Lindsay leads 46-15 in carries and 8-7 in targets. Houston is just 22nd in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs and 26th in Target Success Rate allowed to backs, so it's a good matchup.
Houston Offense Notes
- Fresh off a convincing game against the New England Patriots, the Texans get a slightly-better-than-league-average defense this week, as the Denver Broncos are 14th in adjusted pass defense and 12th in adjusted rush defense.
- Deshaun Watson ($7,700) commands the NFL's sixth-ranked adjusted passing offense. He rates out as the best quarterback play in my model this week.
- Will Fuller ($6,600) returned two weeks ago with very different usages (11 targets, 140 yards, 164 air yards, 3 deep targets in Week 12 on an 89.8% snap rate but 2 targets, 8 yards, 41 air yards, 1 deep target in Week 13 on a 75.0% snap rate). In the two games with him back, DeAndre Hopkins ($8,300) has a 29.8% target share, and Fuller has an unevenly earned 24.1% target share. Duke Johnson ($5,600) is at 13.0%, and Kenny Stills ($5,000) is at 11.1% (6 total). Stills' snap share fell from 98.4% to 62.7% in positive script in Week 13.
- Johnson is an interesting case. His post-bye snap rates are 59.0%, 50.9%, and 67.9%, and he racked up 9 carries and 6 targets last week. Anticipated positive script favors Carlos Hyde ($6,000), who averages a 54.7% snap rate in wins and a 40.1% snap rate in losses. He played just 37.5% last week despite playing with a lead.
- If seeking the right tight end, it's been Darren Fells ($4,700) running more routes than Jordan Akins ($4,900) in recent games.
Core Plays: Deshaun Watson, Noah Fant
Secondary Plays: Phillip Lindsay, DeAndre Hopkins
Tournament Plays: Courtland Sutton, Duke Johnson, Will Fuller
Detroit at Minnesota
|Over/Under | Spread||43.5||-13.0|
|Implied Team Total||15.25||28.25|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||85%||28%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||78%||29%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||9||11|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||25||12|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||24||13|
It's a rematch for these divisional foes, but the Detroit Lions do have a new quarterback in this game to mix things up. Still, the blowout risk is massive, and that could lead to low play volume for the run-heavy Minnesota Vikings.
Detroit Offense Notes
- In David Blough's ($6,900) debut, he posted 0.21 Passing NEP per drop back against a top-10 pass defense. All other passers against top-10 opponents average -0.06.
- He threw 11 times to T.J. Hockenson (now on injured reserve), 8 times to Danny Amendola ($5,400), 6 times to Marvin Jones ($6,400), 5 times to Kenny Golladay ($7,400), and 3 times to Ty Johnson ($4,900) and J.D. McKissic ($4,900). Golladay accounted for 42.6% of the air yards and 5 deep targets (his average target depth was 28.2 yards downfield). Without Hockenson, Golladay, Jones, and Amendola should again get top priority.
- Bo Scarbrough ($5,900) has had 14, 17, and 21 carries in three games with Detroit but is a bust waiting to happen as a huge underdog, as he has just one target in that span.
Minnesota Offense Notes
- Dalvin Cook ($8,700) seems intent on playing despite a shoulder injury, and that robs us of Alexander Mattison ($5,100) week. However, it also throws a wrench into loading up on Cook in cash games. With Minnesota 82.7% likely to win, they probably don't need to run Cook into the ground. Problematically, the Lions are 27th in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs. It's a great matchup, but the context clouds the expectation range for Cook. If we get word he'll play as usual, he's a locked-in core play. I'm still treating him that way until we hear otherwise.
- Kirk Cousins ($8,200) commands the NFL's 3rd-best adjusted passing offense, but Minnesota ranks 28th in pass rate over expectation. They're 23rd since a Week 5 turnaround in efficiency. We could see the bottom fall out in the passing offense.
- With Adam Thielen ($7,300) virtually sidelined since Week 7, the targets have been spread out. Stefon Diggs ($8,000) leads with a 20.0% target share, followed by Dalvin Cook (16.4%), Kyle Rudolph ($4,800; 15.4%), Bisi Johnson ($5,000; 14.4%), and Irv Smith Jr. ($5,300; 13.8%). Diggs has just 34.4% of the deep targets and 36.2% of the air yards -- good but not elite numbers, which makes it tough at his elevated price.
- No team rates out worse against tight ends in Target Success Rate than the Lions, keeping Smith and Rudolph viable plays as home favorites with a huge implied total.
Core Plays: Dalvin Cook
Secondary Plays: Kyle Rudolph, Kirk Cousins
Tournament Plays: Irv Smith, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Stefon Diggs
Carolina at Atlanta
|Over/Under | Spread||47.0||-3.0|
|Implied Team Total||22.0||25.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||73%||57%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||58%||62%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||3||19|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||6||30|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||32||15|
These two teams met in Week 11, a 29-3 demolition by the Atlanta Falcons on the road. This was the second week after their defensive play-calling change. In two games since, they've let up a total of 61 points. And the Carolina Panthers fired head coach Ron Rivera. It's not simply a rematch.
Carolina Offense Notes
- Christian McCaffrey ($11,000) had his second-worst fantasy game of the year last week with 13.7 FanDuel points and 27 opportunities. McCaffrey -- at this price -- is someone who will need to score to pay off, but as far as cash-games go, he's always a justifiable play. Atlanta is 24th in Rushing Success Rate and 15th in Target Success Rate allowed to backs.
- Kyle Allen ($7,100) has topped 23 FanDuel points in consecutive games but was picked four times by the Falcons in Week 11. In three games against bottom-eight pass defenses, Allen has averaged 288.0 yards and 2.0 touchdowns but also 1.7 picks for subpar efficiency.
- Allen's main appeal is easy stacking with D.J. Moore ($7,100), who has a 29.2% target share and 38.9% air yards share since a Week 7 bye. Moore had a 15-target game in Week 11 when Allen threw 50 times, good for a 31.9% target share and 48.1% air yards share.
- Curtis Samuel ($5,800) owns an 18.9% post-bye target share but hasn't cleared 70 yards since Week 2. He's a game-stack option.
- If Greg Olsen ($4,900) plays, he's a low-end option. Olsen has 6, 10, 5, and 7 targets in his four most recent healthy games. If Olsen is out, Ian Thomas ($4,000) steps in as a full-on punt play. Thomas would face a top-12 tight end defense but had 4 targets on 28 routes last week.
Atlanta Offense Notes
- Julio Jones ($7,800) is trending in the right direction and may have played in Week 13 if the game were on Sunday instead of Thursday. Austin Hooper ($6,600) is also looking fairly likely to return to the lineup. Without them last week, we saw Calvin Ridley ($6,900) get 10 targets and Russell Gage ($5,700) and Christian Blake ($5,200) get 9 each. The snaps favored Ridley (93.6%) and Blake (89.3%) over Gage (67.7%), but Gage's role is overall more secure than Blake's if Jones is out. If Jones plays, he's a high-ceiling, low-floor play given the Falcons' lost season and his injury concerns. If Hooper plays, he'll get a good matchup but won't jump off the page when compared to other the other pricey tight ends.
- In four games against top-12 pass defenses, Matt Ryan ($7,600) has outpaced the NFL average, throwing for 277.3 yards per game (44.1 more than the average in that split).
- Devonta Freeman ($6,000) returned to his early-season role last week, securing 22 opportunities (17 carries and 5 targets) on a 66.7% snap rate. The Falcons are just 23rd in yards before contact generated for backs, but the Carolina Panthers are 30th in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs.
Core Plays: Matt Ryan, D.J. Moore, Calvin Ridley, Devonta Freeman, Greg Olsen
Secondary Plays: Christian McCaffrey, Ian Thomas (if Olsen is out)
Tournament Plays: Julio Jones, Austin Hooper, Kyle Allen, Curtis Samuel, Russell Gage
Cincinnati at Cleveland
|Over/Under | Spread||40.5||-7.5|
|Implied Team Total||16.5||24.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||74%||23%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||74%||29%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||10||25|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||29||10|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||23||26|
The total is super low here, but the Cincinnati Bengals' offense is getting better, so I'll probably wind up overweight on game stacks. These teams haven't played yet. The rematch is in Week 17.
Cincinnati Offense Notes
- Andy Dalton ($7,000) returned last week after getting benched. He put up 0.17 Passing NEP per drop back, twice what the New York Jets had let up entering the game. John Ross ($5,500) is set to return to have some role.
- According to The Quant Edge, Dalton averages 6.9 yards per attempt with Ross on the field and 6.0 without him. His touchdown rate is 3.6% with him and 2.0% without him.
- Auden Tate ($5,500) and Alex Erickson ($4,700) are likely losers with Ross' return, but there should be enough for Tate to consider him at the price. We just don't know Ross' role. Tyler Boyd ($6,300) rates out sixth among receivers in floor/ceiling combo in my model. He led the team with 10 targets and had 5 of 6 deep targets last week with Dalton back.
- Joe Mixon ($6,700) has had at least 18 opportunities in his past five games, but the offensive line ranks 30th in yards before contact generated. The Cleveland Browns are just 25th defensively, though.
Cleveland Offense Notes
- Baker Mayfield ($7,600) has played just three bottom-half adjusted pass defenses all season. In those games, he has averaged 312.3 passing yards and 1.7 passing touchdowns, way underperforming the average in per-drop back passing efficiency but making up for the turnovers with yardage.
- With Kareem Hunt ($6,400) in the mix for four games, the offensive distributions are pretty telling. Jarvis Landry ($7,200) leads with a 30.4% target share, Odell Beckham ($6,800) has a 26.7% target share, and Hunt is at 18.5% with nobody else in double digits. Landry has a league-high 13 deep targets in this span. Beckham's 11 rank him sixth. While Landry justifiably has the higher salary, the Bengals are bad enough for both to emerge as appealing plays.
- Nick Chubb ($7,900) should see a heavy workload if the spread pans out. Chubb has yo-yoing snap rates of 61.0%, 39.4%, 54.3%, and 43.6% in four games with Hunt. He had averaged 23.3 opportunities prior to Hunt's debut and has 23.8 in four games with him. He isn't as safe as he used to be.
Core Plays: Tyler Boyd
Secondary Plays: Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham
Tournament Plays: Joe Mixon, Kareem Hunt
LA Chargers at Jacksonville
|Over/Under | Spread||43.0||+3.0|
|Implied Team Total||23.0||20.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||81%||53%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog||82%||86%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||30||26|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||23||21|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||22||28|
The Jacksonville Jaguars are turning it back over to Gardner Minshew ($6,600) and his horizontal passing. Both teams are slow, yet both defenses are bad. There are interesting individual pieces here, though both offenses have been underwhelming. Sounds like a game I'll stack way too often!
LA Chargers Offense Notes
- Amidst concerns of getting benched, Philip Rivers ($7,300) is pretty much untouchable despite a good matchup. The Jaguars are 28th in Passing Success Rate allowed since losing Jalen Ramsey.
- Since an offensive coordinator change in Week 9, the Los Angeles Chargers' target distribution has been 25.0% for Keenan Allen ($6,800), 22.0% for Hunter Henry ($6,400), 17.4% for Austin Ekeler ($7,000), and 14.4% for Mike Williams ($5,900). Williams still is dealing with touchdown regression from last year, apparently, but he has 34.6% of the deep targets and 32.8% of the air yards in this sample. Without Ramsey, the Jaguars rank 27th in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends and 23rd allowed to receivers, so it's a good matchup overall. Allen, Williams, and Henry are priced to tempt.
- Since the coordinator change, the backfield work has mostly favored Melvin Gordon ($7,300), who has 76 carries and 13 targets. Ekeler has 32 carries and 13 targets. Jacksonville's weak rush defense sets up for Gordon to have a high touch floor and be cash-game viable in the right builds.
Jacksonville Offense Notes
- Minshew has not lived up to the NFL average in per-drop back passing efficiency this season (0.04; league average is 0.08). The Chargers got healthy last week with safeties Adrian Phillips and Derwin James returning. Minshew's price does make him a viable low-end quarterback play if spending down.
- In games started by Minshew this season in which Dede Westbrook ($6,200) played, the target distribution has been 25.1% for D.J. Chark ($6,200), 22.0% for Dede Westbrook, 17.2% for Leonard Fournette ($7,500), and 14.5% for Chris Conley ($5,400). Conley leads with a 14.5-yard average target depth. Chark is at 11.1 yards, and Westbrook is at 7.1. Chark is priced down but has returned double-digit FanDuel points in two of his past seven games.
- Fournette has notoriously underperformed in the touchdown column this season yet has averaged 25.0 opportunities per game. The Chargers rank 22nd in yards before contact allowed to backs, so he may finally have some breathing room. Fournette has at least 6 targets in 10 games this season. He's game-script proof.
Core Plays: Leonard Fournette, Melvin Gordon, Hunter Henry
Secondary Plays: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Gardner Minshew
Tournament Plays: DJ Chark, Dede Westbrook
Pittsburgh at Arizona
|Over/Under | Spread||43.5||+2.5|
|Implied Team Total||23.0||20.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||28%||13%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog||31%||12%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||23||2|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||3||31|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||3||16|
It's a combination of a great visiting Pittsburgh Steelers defense and an uptempo, fun offense and bad defense in the Arizona Cardinals. It's fairly stackable, but this one could be a bust despite no weather concerns. A lot of the betting action is on the road team and the under.
Pittsburgh Offense Notes
- None of the Steelers rate out as anything other than game stack plays for me this week.
- Devlin Hodges ($7,000) isn't cheap, but he's been better than the NFL average on a per-drop back basis, and the Cardinals are a cakewalk matchup. Hodges ranks 31st in downfield pass rate, keeping it close to the vest for a 7.5-yard average target depth. It's not awful, but it's not great.
- Hodges has 61 attempts. His targets have been super spread out. Diontae Johnson ($5,100) leads with 11 targets (just 18.0%), followed by James Washington ($6,700) with 9. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,800) also has seven but is unlikely to play. Washington's the one with the role worth targeting, but boy, he's too expensive for anything other than stacks.
- Benny Snell Jr. ($6,100) has had 21 and 16 carries the past two games with 11 red zone carries in that span. He'd be the guy to target if James Conner ($7,100) is out again.
Arizona Offense Notes
- Kyler Murray ($7,500) faces a top-three pass defense this week, but 8 of his 12 games have been against top-half pass defenses, and 6 were against top-12 opponents. In those six games, Murray has totaled 1,373 yards but only 6 touchdowns with 3 interceptions. That works out to 228.8 yards and 1.0 passing touchdowns per game. His passing efficiency has been dead even with the averages in that split, 6.7 yards per attempt, 45.2% Passing Success Rate, and -0.05 Passing NEP per drop back. It's not great, but it's not as if he collapses in these matchups. Murray also averages 5.0 rushing attempts and 35.7 rushing yards per game, about a passing touchdown's worth of fantasy points.
- Since Kenyan Drake's ($6,100) arrival in Week 9, Christian Kirk ($5,900) has a 23.5% target share, Larry Fitzgerald ($5,700) has an 18.2% target share, Drake has a 17.4% target share, and Pharoh Cooper ($4,900) has a 12.9% target share. Kirk has a 38.1% downfield target share, followed by Cooper (23.8%) and Fitzgerald and Andy Isabella ($4,700) at 14.3%. Kirk is a bounce-back candidate despite another tough matchup.
- The backfield guarantees to be a mess with Drake, David Johnson ($5,400), and Chase Edmonds ($4,800) all in the mix. Drake has played 84.2%, 64.3%, 88.4%, and 79.7% of snaps in four games with the team. If we project him for the workload he's been getting (17-plus opportunities in all four games), he's a top-five per-dollar play, though.
Core Plays: Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk
Secondary Plays: Benny Snell Jr., Kenyan Drake
Tournament Plays: James Washington, Diontae Johnson
Tennessee at Oakland
|Over/Under | Spread||46.5||+2.5|
|Implied Team Total||24.5||22.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||64%||21%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||49%||19%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||22||31|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||18||28|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||4||21|
The over/under is quite high for two teams that are so slow, but with below-average pass defenses, I guess I can see it. It's just not the most appealing game for daily fantasy because the Tennessee Titans spread the ball out, and the Oakland Raiders' offensive ceiling is the roof.
Tennessee Offense Notes
- The key cog for this offense is Derrick Henry ($9,100). I haven't played him much lately, which hasn't worked out well, but Henry has road favorite status this week. The Raiders' defense ranks 19th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 12th in yards before contact allowed to backs. The Titans' offense is 31st in yards before contact generated for their rushers. Henry's price requires him to hit the nuts on his rushing upside, as the targets and receiving yardage just aren't there.
- Ryan Tannehill ($7,300) has posted at least 18.94 FanDuel points in five of six starts and has run for 7, -3, 38, 37, 40, and 5 yards in them. There's some rushing potential for him. Oakland's bottom-five pass defense should let him convert on his passes, though he has had just 59 attempts over his past three games. In three matchups with bottom-half pass defenses, Tannehill has doubled the NFL average in per-drop back efficiency and averages 251.0 yards and 2.0 touchdowns in them.
- Tannehill hasn't given a single receiver even a 20.0% target share. A.J. Brown ($5,400) is close at 19.9%, but that's worked out to only 5.2 targets per game. Jonnu Smith ($4,900) has punt appeal at tight end. He owns a 16.5% target share from Tannehill.
Oakland Offense Notes
- Derek Carr ($7,000) still hasn't thrown for 300 yards in a game, and he has maxed out at 32 attempts since Week 4. He's totaled three passing touchdowns over the past four games. Despite this, he is 9th in Passing NEP per drop back. Ranking 35th in downfield rate has led to a lack of ceiling for Carr, whose average target depth is third-lowest among starting quarterbacks.
- As an underdog, Josh Jacobs ($7,700) can't be viewed as a primary play. Jacobs has averaged a 61.8% snap rate and 24.2 touches in wins and a 49.3% snap rate and 15.2 touches in losses.
- Last week without Hunter Renfrow, the targets were fixated on Darren Waller ($6,200). He had 9 targets (33.3%) and 82 air yards (51.2%). After that, Tyrell Williams ($5,700) had 4 targets (14.8%) to rank second -- and he had just 16.9% of the air yards. Zay Jones ($4,700) and DeAndre Washington ($5,000) had three targets. Waller's floor is elevated, but Williams still is an all-or-nothing play, and nobody else has bankable volume even against the NFL's 24th-ranked receiver defense.
Core Plays: Darren Waller
Secondary Plays: Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr (cash games)
Tournament Plays: A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, Tyrell Williams, Josh Jacobs
Kansas City at New England
|Matchup||Kansas City||New England|
|Over/Under | Spread||48.5||-3.0|
|Implied Team Total||22.75||25.75|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||35%||26%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||31%||11%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||8||7|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||4||2|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||30||5|
The marquee game of the weekend has some fantasy allure for certain, but both pass defenses are top-four units. Still, the total is high and the paces are fast. The betting action is on the under.
Kansas City Offense Notes
- Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) has played just one top-12 pass defense this year (Baltimore in Week 3). Mahomes averaged more than 10 yards per attempt (374 yards on 37 passes) and 3 touchdowns. From a NEP perspective, that works out to 0.53 Passing NEP per drop back. Top-five pass defenses allow an average of -0.13 Passing NEP per drop back. He also shredded the Jaguars with Jalen Ramsey early in the season. We shouldn't totally ignore the matchup here, but Mahomes can overcome it.
- Due to Mahomes' injury -- and injuries to Tyreek Hill ($8,300) and Sammy Watkins ($5,600) -- it's really hard to pinpoint the most useful sample. But with everyone back last week, Travis Kelce ($7,100) led with nine targets, Hill had eight, and nobody else had more than three. Kelce also had 51.5% of the air yards. Hill and Kelce are the guys, and everything else behind them is a question mark, as Watkins has not hit 65 yards since Week 1.
- Damien Williams ($6,000) and Darrel Williams ($5,500) missed practice Wednesday, so the backfield trio could be LeSean McCoy ($6,100), Darwin Thompson ($5,200), and Spencer Ware, who was signed this week. That points to one or both Williams sitting out. McCoy stands to start and see the first crack at the work, but Thompson did see 11 carries for 44 yards and a touchdown last week, mostly late in the game. This is most likely a backfield to avoid in the tough matchup. No back projects for a workhorse role, but McCoy and even Thompson have appeal if assuming certain game scripts.
New England Offense Notes
- Tom Brady's ($7,700) New England Patriots rank 18th in adjusted passing offense; the Kansas City Chiefs are 4th defensively but 19th in adjusted pressure rate. There are certainly paths to production for Brady. In four matchups with top-12 opponents, Brady has averaged 258.8 yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns with plus efficiency. Surprisingly, in two matchups with top-five pass defenses, Brady has averaged 313.0 yards and 2.0 passing touchdowns for 0.15 Passing NEP per drop back (compared to the in-split average of -0.13).
- The revolving rotation at wide receiver has most recently settled on Julian Edelman ($7,600), Phillip Dorsett ($5,400), and Jakobi Meyers ($5,100). Last week, Edelman played 92.0% of the snaps, Dorsett played 71.3%, and Meyers played 70.1%. N'Keal Harry ($5,500) played 25.3%, and Mohamed Sanu ($5,800) played 21.8%. The route rates were pretty much in line with the snap rates.
- Last week's targets: 12 for Edelman, 11 for James White ($6,000), 7 for Meyers, 6 for Dorsett, 5 for Sanu.
- White dominated the snaps (78.2%) last week in negative game script and probably earned himself elevated numbers. However, the Chiefs are 32nd in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs and 30th in overall adjusted rushing defense. The game plan could be to opt for keep-away from the Chiefs' offense and feature Sony Michel ($6,600) and White on the ground.
Core Plays: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Julian Edelman
Secondary Plays: Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, James White, Phillip Dorsett
Tournament Plays: LeSean McCoy, Darwin Thompson, Jakobi Meyers