Fantasy Football: Gdula's Game Notes for Week 13
numberFire has no shortage of tools -- lineup generators, fantasy projections, and more -- to help you round out your rosters, but some extra prep never hurt anyone. So, here are some notes to know about each and every game on FanDuel's main slate for Week 13.
Washington at Carolina
NY Jets at Cincinnati
Tennessee at Indianapolis
San Francisco at Baltimore
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Green Bay at NY Giants
Tampa Bay at Jacksonville
Philadelphia at Miami
LA Rams at Arizona
Oakland at Kansas City
LA Chargers at Denver
Washington at Carolina
|Over/Under | Spread||40.5||-9.5|
|Implied Team Total||15.5||25.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||44%||89%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||69%||94%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||29||4|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||27||6|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||19||32|
A heavy spread in favor of the Carolina Panthers is a little worrisome. We know that Washington wants to run the ball (they're 31st in pass rate over expectation and adjusted seconds per play since Bill Callahan took over as interim coach). The Panthers are dead last against the rush, so there could be volume concerns for their offense.
Washington Offense Notes
- Dwayne Haskins ($6,500) has averaged -0.35 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back on the season, compared to the NFL average of 0.09, and his Passing Success Rate has been 35.2%, compared to the NFL average of 46.7%. Carolina is sixth in adjusted pass defense.
- Terry McLaurin ($5,800) -- in three games with Haskins starting -- has a 26.5% target share and ranks seventh in WOPR (a combination of air yards share and target share) in that split. His role is amazing, but Haskins needs to connect with him for it to matter.
- Kelvin Harmon ($4,800) has a steady 27.1% air yards share over the past three games, on a 16.9% target share, but the offensive expectations are low. He has some low-end appeal if spending up at running back, perhaps someone on the other side of this game.
- Derrius Guice ($5,400) and Adrian Peterson ($5,800) split 20 carries down the middle, and neither are surpassing a 50% snap rate with both healthy. They're hard to play as heavy underdogs.
Carolina Offense Notes
- Christian McCaffrey ($11,000) is priced up $500 from where he has been, so on a per-dollar basis, he projects fairly poorly, but his 75th-percentile outcome in my projections is 24.9 FanDuel points. The median is 19.1. Washington ranks 16th in Rushing Success Rate and 4th in Target Success Rate allowed to backs.
- Kyle Allen ($7,200) came through last week and gets a bottom-five adjusted pass defense this week. Allen has stacking intrigue with McCaffrey and the receivers.
- Since the bye, D.J. Moore ($6,800) has a 29.5% target share and 39.3% air yards share. He also ranks third in air yards per game in this sample. His usage is amazing, and he's still not priced up enough to be a tournament-only option. Washington is 30th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers. Curtis Samuel ($5,800) had just four targets last week but also had four carries. Since their bye, he has a 19.7% target share, a still-good number in this matchup.
- Greg Olsen ($5,100) has a price that just doesn't budge, which helps. He has a 15.8% post-bye target share, a good mark for a tight end. Washington has been league-average against the position, and Olsen is a home favorite with a high total. That's the tight end checklist.
Core Plays: Christian McCaffrey, Greg Olsen, D.J. Moore
Secondary Plays: Terry McLaurin
Tournament Plays: Curtis Samuel, Kyle Allen, Kelvin Harmon
NY Jets at Cincinnati
|Over/Under | Spread||41.5||+3.5|
|Implied Team Total||22.5||19.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||83%||9%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog||93%||9%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||19||7|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||23||30|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||2||22|
We'll get Andy Dalton ($6,000) back under center for Cincinnati, and that helps a lot for the back-and-forth potential in this game. There's a boat load of money on the over. Two bottom-10 pass defenses make this game sneakily stackable despite the low total.
NY Jets Offense Notes
- Le'Veon Bell ($7,300) rates out as a top-three tournament play for me this week against the Bengals' leaky defense. They're 27th in Rushing Success Rate and 32nd in Target Success Rate allowed to backs. Bell has averaged 21.3 opportunities over his past four games, and the poor defensive front helps with Bell's awful offensive line.
- Sam Darnold ($7,600) gets a bottom-three pass defense and has been a matchup-dependent option this year. In four games against bottom-eight pass defenses, Darnold has averaged 274.5 yards and 2.0 touchdowns, pretty much exactly the average in that split. The Bengals are 32nd in adjusted pressure rate. Darnold's New York Jets have allowed the most pressure all season after adjusting for opponent.
- Since Darnold's Week 6 return, Jamison Crowder ($6,300) leads with a 22.1% target share. Demaryius Thomas ($5,200) is at 18.8%, and Robby Anderson ($6,100) is at 17.8%. The deep targets have been 16 for Anderson, 11 for Thomas, and 7 for Crowder. Anderson has caught just 4 of 16 deep targets in this sample, so there's big-play regression for Anderson, who has led the team in routes in every game since Week 6.
- Ryan Griffin ($5,600) has had a decent 15.1% target share the past two games without Chris Herndon. The Bengals rank dead last in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends.
Cincinnati Offense Notes
- Dalton had been bad through Week 8, averaging -0.03 Passing NEP per drop back, well off the average of 0.09 for all passers. He averaged 289.0 yards and 1.3 touchdowns in three games against bottom-half pass defenses with subpar efficiency. At minimum salary for a quarterback, there's some intrigue.
- Dalton's target distributions from Weeks 5 through Week 8 (so as to exclude John Ross): 26.1% for Tyler Boyd ($6,000), 22.4% for Auden Tate ($5,200), 17.0% for Alex Erickson ($4,700). Tate dominated the air yards share at 37.9%, while Boyd (27.2%) and Erickson (22.0%) follow with single-digit aDOTs. Boyd is back on the radar. Tate is one of the best value plays on the board.
- Joe Mixon ($6,500) has seen 30, 15, and 18 carries over the past three games and has played 76.0%, 58.7%, and 69.0% of snaps in three post-bye games. However, the Jets are first in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs and second in yards before contact allowed.
Core Plays: Le'Veon Bell
Secondary Plays: Andy Dalton, Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate
Tournament Plays: Robby Anderson, Demaryius Thomas, Sam Darnold, Ryan Griffin
Tennessee at Indianapolis
|Over/Under | Spread||43.5||-2.5|
|Implied Team Total||20.5||23.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||55%||59%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||67%||49%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||22||26|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||14||17|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||4||16|
There's a lot of money on the over in this game. Both pass defenses are middling, but the paces are slow. It's not overly appealing to me, and if it's popular, I'm fine with being underweight.
Tennessee Offense Notes
- I just can't prioritize Derrick Henry ($8,600) at this salary with his lack of receiving work. Henry has no more than three targets in a game this season. The Indianapolis Colts rank 11th in both Rushing Success Rate and yards before contact allowed defensively. Henry is a borderline top-10 DFS play at this price, which puts him well off the cash-game radar and into tournament-only status.
- The Tennessee Titans have a new working sample with Corey Davis ($5,200) back in action. Last week, Ryan Tannehill ($7,300) threw just 18 passes. The split was five targets for A.J. Brown ($5,300) and three for Davis and Adam Humphries ($5,300). Davis led with 44.4% of the air yards and led in snap rate. He or Brown would be the preference, and I'd go with Brown.
Indianapolis Offense Notes
- Jacoby Brissett ($7,200) has a 75th-percentile outcome in my model of just 20.3 points, so he's a hard justification here in a divisional rematch -- no matter that it was back in Week 2.
- In seven games where T.Y. Hilton ($7,000) -- whose status is uncertain -- has played at least half of snaps: he leads with a 26.5% target share, followed by Eric Ebron (15.0%, but he's on injured reserve) and Jack Doyle ($5,000; 13.0%). They simply don’t feature anyone other than Hilton, so it's a guessing game after him. Of note, Hilton has 39.7% of the air yards in that split. Zach Pascal ($5,400) had just one target despite an 88.0% snap rate with Hilton back in Week 12. There should be some volume to go around without Ebron, but nobody has benefitted from absences outside of Pascal (while Hilton was out) all season. Pascal and Doyle would be most likely to see a boost without Hilton and Ebron.
- Jonathan Williams ($6,800) had three targets while playing two thirds of the snaps and seeing 26 of 35 running back carries, but he's priced up for an early-down back. If a healthy Marlon Mack were priced at $6,800, I wouldn't be overly intrigued by it, either, in this spot. Williams did get three targets last week, as did Nyheim Hines ($5,500), who played the other third of snaps and had nine carries and three targets in Week 12. The Titans are sixth in Rushing Success Rate allowed to running backs.
Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Jack Doyle (if no Ebron)
Tournament Plays: Derrick Henry, Jonathan Williams, Jacoby Brissett, Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown, Zach Pascal (if no Hilton)
San Francisco at Baltimore
|Over/Under | Spread||46.5||-5.5|
|Implied Team Total||20.5||26.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||88%||65%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||96%||62%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||10||32|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||2||4|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||12||27|
Two of the best teams in football could have a back-and-forth affair, but both teams are bottom-eight in pass rate over expectation, and the Baltimore Ravens are the NFL's slowest offense, in part because they are so run-heavy. There's a ton of action on the over, so if it winds up being popular, I'm fine shying away -- because of the realistic bust potential.
San Francisco Offense Notes
- Jimmy Garoppolo ($8,000) is priced up for the matchup. Baltimore is up to fourth in adjusted pass defense. Since acquiring Marcus Peters for Week 7, the Ravens have the NFL's best pass defense, yielding -0.32 Passing NEP per drop back and a 43.1% Passing Success Rate.
- In three games with George Kittle ($7,000) and Emmanuel Sanders ($6,400) both playing relevant snaps together, the target share favors Kittle (27.8%). Sanders is at 19.0%. Deebo Samuel ($5,600) has a 15.2% target share, and Tevin Coleman ($6,100) is at 12.7%. Since Week 7 with Peters, Baltimore has let up a league-low 4.9 yards per target to tight ends and are fourth against receivers (6.6). It's a tough matchup, but the 49ers could be forced to throw for a change, and that would elevate the volume for the three main pass-catchers.
- Baltimore has also put the clamps on rushing success, since Week 7, but have been weak over the full season. Coleman is cheap at $6,100 and is getting targets (four in four straight games). He has played at least 50% of the snaps in those four and got up to 60.4% in Week 12's positive script. The targets help us buy in in neutral or negative script for this week.
Baltimore Offense Notes
- Lamar Jackson ($8,700) has a silly floor with his rushing, but the San Francisco 49ers boast a top-two pass defense. We saw Jackson put up 0.53 Passing NEP per drop back against the NFL's best pas defense back in Week 9. He's not a must at the salary, but if you're building multiple tournament lineups, he is someone you need to roster.
- Marquise Brown ($5,600) is priced well enough, but he has averaged a 53.3% snap rate in four games since returning. He has 20.4% of the targets, a team-high share. That's led to only 17.9% of the air yards. Mark Andrews ($6,500) has 19.4% of the targets and a team-high 25.4% target share. Everything is spread out after that.
- Mark Ingram ($7,500) has had 3, 0, 4, and 1 targets the past four games on 44.3%, 48.9%, 45.8%, and 30.3% of the snaps. The Niners are 18th in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs.
Core Plays: Lamar Jackson, George Kittle
Secondary Plays: Mark Andrews
Tournament Plays: Tevin Coleman, Jimmy Garoppolo, Marquise Brown, Emmanuel Sanders
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
|Over/Under | Spread||39.5||+1.5|
|Implied Team Total||20.5||19.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||22%||19%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||20%||15%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||23||24|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||8||3|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||25||3|
The total is low, and the money is on the under. The Pittsburgh Steelers will be turning over to Devlin Hodges ($6,800), mixing up the variables in this divisional rematch from Week 11, one that got more than a little dicey.
Cleveland Offense Notes
- Baker Mayfield ($7,600) has met or exceeded the NFL average in Passing NEP per drop back in four straight games, including meeting it in Week 11 against Pittsburgh albeit while attached to a dreadful Passing Success Rate. Mayfield's schedule has proven to be quite tough this year, and this is another tough matchup on the road against a top-five pass defense.
- In three games with Kareem Hunt ($5,900) in the lineup, Odell Beckham ($7,300) and Jarvis Landry ($7,400) each have a 29.7% target share and 44.4% of the deep targets. Landry also has 40.0% of the red zone targets (2.0 per game). The usage is elite for both, but the matchup and their prices are a mite concerning. Pittsburgh does rank 20th in slot yards per snap allowed, good news for Landry.
- With Hunt in the lineup, Nick Chubb ($8,200) has 68 carries. Hunt has 17. Hunt, though, has 20 targets, and Chubb has just 9. Given Hunt's growing role and Chubb's price, he's someone I won't wind up with much of this weekend.
Pittsburgh Offense Notes
- Hodges has just 40 attempts this season and hasn't given anyone more than 17.5% of his throws. Hodges has been just below league-average in efficiency for what it's worth, but the Cleveland Browns are a top-eight adjusted pass defense, so the Steelers rate out as a poor offense overall. That's reflected in a sub-20-point total.
- Among 49 passers with at least 40 attempts, Hodges ranks 49th in deep attempt rate. He did throw four times to James Washington ($6,200) last week, but Washington is priced up. Diontae Johnson ($5,300) has run 81.8% or more of the pass routes in three of four games.
- Benny Snell Jr. ($6,100) had a 48.7% snap rate and saw 21 of 31 running back carries last week but didn't get a target and ran just 8 pass routes. There's bust potential for Snell if the script goes negative. Jaylen Samuels ($5,500) is priced back down but played just 15 snaps last week.
Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry
Tournament Plays: Nick Chubb, Diontae Johnson
Green Bay at NY Giants
|Matchup||Green Bay||NY Giants|
|Over/Under | Spread||45.5||+6.5|
|Implied Team Total||26.0||19.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||63%||3%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||72%||3%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||20||17|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||10||26|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||31||13|
There's a ton of action on the over here, and that's enticing because the offenses are pretty tight in terms of who we can actually target, especially if the injury news trends a certain way. It has stack appeal for that reason.
Green Bay Offense Notes
- The Green Bay Packers will be without tackle Bryan Bulaga here, which is concerning against a team that ranks 13th in adjusted pressure rate, but it's not enough to divest fully in one of the better shootout bets of the weekend.
- Last week, Aaron Rodgers ($8,100) got stifled by the 49ers' defense but has still nearly tripled up the NFL average in Passing NEP per drop back on the season, and the New York Giants are 26th in adjusted pass defense.
- Davante Adams ($8,000) has feasted since returning three games ago. He has a 33.7% target share and a 43.4% air yards share. Nobody else on the team has better than Jamaal Williams' ($5,600) 15.3% target share. Allen Lazard ($5,400) is third at 12.2%. So if we're into the Packers' passing offense, it's really just Rodgers and Adams.
- There are rumblings to get Aaron Jones ($8,000) more involved for what feels like the 700th time in his career. Jones has had 30.8% of the team's carries and targets over the past five games, good for seventh among all running backs on the main slate. Williams is at 17.9%. The Giants are fifth in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs, so that's a bit concerning from a matchup standpoint.
NY Giants Offense Notes
- In Sterling Shepard's ($5,900) return last week, he led the team with 9 targets but caught 5 for 15 yards. Golden Tate ($6,300) had 7 targets, as did Darius Slayton ($6,300), and Tate led with 73 air yards. Slayton (53) and Shepard (51) just surpassed 50. Tate operated primarily from the slot with Shepard on the outside; Tate is in concussion protocol. If he's out, then Shepard would move inside often and see a target boost. Green Bay is an average receiver matchup across the field.
- Kaden Smith ($4,000) ran every route and played 98.3% of snaps last week, getting 6 targets (2 in the red zone). Green Bay is 26th in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends. If Evan Engram sits, Smith is a really nice punt option.
- Daniel Jones ($7,400) was dreadful last week against an elite pass defense. Green Bay rates out 10th in adjusted pass defense on the full year but are just 30th in (unadjusted) Passing NEP per drop back allowed since Week 4. With a narrower target tree, Jones has some stackability.
- Saquon Barkley ($7,600) is quite cheap against a team that rates out 32nd in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs (but 9th in Target Success Rate). Barkley has averaged a steady 22.4 opportunities per game since returning in Week 7. He rates out as the best per-dollar running back play in my projections.
Core Plays: Saquon Barkley, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Kaden Smith (if no Engram), Sterling Shepard (if no Tate)
Secondary Plays: Aaron Jones, Golden Tate (if healthy), Darius Slayton (if no Tate)
Tournament Plays: Jamaal Williams
Tampa Bay at Jacksonville
|Over/Under | Spread||48.5||-1.5|
|Implied Team Total||23.5||25.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||82%||10%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||79%||3%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||3||28|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||19||22|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||1||30|
The total is high, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' funnel defense should open up a lot for the Jacksonville Jaguars' passing offense. There's a lot of juice on the over, and I think this game -- like the bettors -- is one of the liveliest of the week.
Tampa Bay Offense Notes
- Since Week 4 without Jalen Ramsey, the Jaguars' defense ranks 16th in Passing NEP per drop back and 28th in Passing Success Rate allowed.
- Jameis Winston ($7,600) carved up the Atlanta Falcons last week after their temporary defensive turnaround. Winston put up 0.58 Passing NEP per drop back on them. The NFL average this year is 0.09. He rates out as a top-six quarterback play for me this week.
- It was Chris Godwin ($8,200) with the breakout game in Week 12, but Mike Evans ($7,700) leads the duo in target share (25.1% to 23.2%), air yards share (35.8% to 24.9%), deep target share (39.8% to 24.7%), and red zone target share (30.9% to 23.6%). He's the preference for me -- always.
- Ronald Jones ($6,200) is fine for game stacks, as he has been playing around half the snaps (but did get just 30.9% in Week 11). The Jaguars are 30th in adjusted rush defense and 23rd in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs -- as well as 26th in Target Success Rate allowed to running backs.
Jacksonville Offense Notes
- Nick Foles ($7,500) has put up middling efficiency this season, but the Bucs represent his easiest pass defense of the season (by a smidge). The targets are concentrated, and that's important for daily fantasy lineups.
- Since Foles’ return, D.J. Chark ($6,900) has a 23.3% share, Leonard Fournette ($7,600) is at 21.1%, Chris Conley ($6,000) is at 18.9%, and Dede Westbrook ($5,700) is at 16.7%. Conley actually has more deep targets (7) than Chark (6), and each rank top-15 in high-leverage targets per game (deep and red zone targets) in this two-game sample. Tampa is 20th against the deep pass.
- Fournette's elite target share ranks sixth among running backs in this smaller sample and would be third on the full season. Fournette has a terrible matchup from a rushing standpoint, but he has 7, 6, 7, and 12 targets over the past four games to help out. He's still viable, yet the lack of rushing yardage upside pushes him out of core play territory.
Core Plays: Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, D.J. Chark
Secondary Plays: Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, Nick Foles
Tournament Plays: Chris Conley, Ronald Jones
Philadelphia at Miami
|Over/Under | Spread||44.5||+9.5|
|Implied Team Total||27.0||17.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||52%||19%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||32%||8%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||27||5|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||16||32|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||9||26|
This could be a get-right spot for the Philadelphia Eagles against the NFL's worst adjusted pass defense. The majority of the money, though, is on the under, and it's dropped a point since the open. So, maybe the Eagles have some trap potential down south against the Miami Dolphins.
Philadelphia Offense Notes
- Carson Wentz ($7,300) is quite cheap, cheap enough for us to consider going heavy with him. Wentz has fallen shy of the league-average in Passing NEP per drop back (0.04 for him this year), but the Dolphins are the best matchup possible. Tackle Lane Johnson should return this week, and that really elevates the floor for Wentz.
- In five games with Alshon Jeffery ($6,500) healthy and with Dallas Goedert's ($5,200) increased role, the target shares have been: 26.1% for Jeffery, 23.9% for Zach Ertz ($6,900, 15.2% for Goedert, and 14.7% for Nelson Agholor ($4,800)
- Assuming Jordan Howard continues to miss, then Miles Sanders ($5,800) will remain enticing at the price. He has had an 83.0% and 79.2% snap rate the past two games with hardly any production at all on 32 carries and 9 targets. A date with a bottom-eight rush defense awaits him. It'd be an elite spot for him without Howard with Johnson back.
Miami Offense Notes
- The only relevant pieces of the Miami offense are DeVante Parker ($6,000) and Michael Gesicki ($5,000). Parker has had a weighted opportunity rating (WOPR, a combination of air yards and target shares) that ranks him 11th among receivers since Preston Williams went to IR prior to Week 10.
- Gesicki has had 6, 6, 6, and 7 targets the past four games, and the Eagles are 23rd in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends.
Core Plays: Zach Ertz, Miles Sanders (if Howard is out)
Secondary Plays: Carson Wentz, Dallas Goedert, DeVante Parker
Tournament Plays: Mike Gesicki, Alshon Jeffery
LA Rams at Arizona
|Over/Under | Spread||47.5||+3.0|
|Implied Team Total||25.25||22.25|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||53%||59%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog||94%||53%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||1||2|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||20||28|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||8||18|
The two fastest teams in football based on my adjustments meet up in a game with a total not quite as high as you may expect. Almost every dollar is on the over, though, and this game has a lot of stacking potential.
LA Rams Offense Notes
- After his disappointing island game performance in Week 12, Jared Goff ($7,900) should be virtually unowned despite a cake matchup. Goff draws the league's 28th-ranked adjusted pass defense, one that is 20th in adjusted pressure rate. In (only) three games against bottom-half pass defenses, Goff has thrown for two touchdowns in each game while accumulating 517, 268, and 372 yards in them.
- Brandin Cooks ($6,700) returned to play 77.8% of snaps in Week 12 and run 74.4% of the Los Angeles Rams' pass routes. He drew just 4 targets but had an aDOT of 18.0 yards downfield.
- In that Week 12 game with both Cooks and Robert Woods ($7,100) back, Cooper Kupp ($7,800) led with a 27.8% target share. Woods had 25.0%. Tyler Higbee ($5,500) had 16.7%. Cooks had 11.1%, and Todd Gurley ($7,400) had 8.3%. Gerald Everett ($6,300) saw just 2 targets (5.6%) while playing 31.5% of the snaps and running 23.1% of the routes. He's unplayable at the salary.
- Patrick Peterson hasn't been his usual self this year, but he should land on Woods most often. Per-dollar, I'd prioritize Cooks first, followed by Kupp and Woods.
- Gurley has played 74.0%, 74.6%, and 96.3% of the snaps in three post-bye games. The production isn't always there, though. The Arizona Cardinals are 7th in Rushing Success Rate but 31st in Target Success Rate allowed to backs. Gurley is still in the mix for a borderline core play at his salary.
Arizona Offense Notes
- Kyler Murray ($7,700) returns after a bye to face a tough defense. Since Week 7 with Jalen Ramsey, the Rams' pass defense ranks 13th in Passing NEP per drop back and 9th in Passing Success Rate allowed. Against top-half pass defenses (five games), Murray has averaged -0.05 Passing NEP per drop back (compared to 0.01 for all other passers in that split). He's averaged 226.4 passing yards and 1.2 touchdowns. He has rushing juice, but the matchup isn't one to chase without any pause.
- In three games with Christian Kirk ($6,100) and Kenyan Drake ($6,400) in the lineup, the Cardinals' target shares have been: 24.2% for Kirk, 18.2% for Drake, 17.2% for Larry Fitzgerald ($5,700), and 11.1% for Pharoh Cooper ($5,100). Kirk also owns a team-high 36.1% air yards share; Cooper is at 26.0%. As far as the matchups go, Kirk could be looking at shadow coverage from Ramsey, and no team is better against the slot than the Rams, which is bad news for Fitzgerald.
- The backfield has been dominated by Drake the past two games with David Johnson ($5,700) in the lineup, but now Chase Edmonds ($5,000) should be back. Drake has 38 of 44 touches between he and Johnson the past two games. Neither of the backs are particularly appealing in this game environment unless a full-on shootout comes, and Johnson is pretty impossible to justify at all.
Core Plays: Todd Gurley
Secondary Plays: Kyler Murray
Tournament Plays: Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, Christian Kirk, Kenyan Drake
Oakland at Kansas City
|Over/Under | Spread||51.5||-9.5|
|Implied Team Total||21.0||30.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||N/A||N/A|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||N/A||N/A|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||31||8|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||29||5|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||21||29|
These teams met back in Week 2, a 28-10 win for the Kansas City Chiefs. Through 12 weeks, we know that the rush defenses here are pretty weak, and we know that the Oakland Raiders' pass defense isn't anything to fear. Both teams rank top-two in adjusted pressure rate on offense and top 12 on defense.
Oakland Offense Notes
- Josh Jacobs ($7,700) is in a troublesome spot in terms of game script, as the Raiders are nearly double-digit underdogs. The individual matchup is nice: Kansas City ranks 31st in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs. Jacobs averages a 61.8% snap rate in wins and 47.8% in losses. He's just a game stack piece.
- Derek Carr ($7,200) tanked a great matchup last week on the road and now heads into a tough one in Arrowhead. Carr struggled in Week 2 against Kansas City, netting 198 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 2 picks on 38 attempts (-0.18 Passing NEP per drop back). The ceiling is never really there with Carr, who has yet to get to 300 yards in a game.
- With recent target share leader Hunter Renfrow out, targets should be elevated for Darren Waller ($6,100) and Tyrell Williams ($6,200). Waller is priced down to help matters.Through Week 7, Waller had a 27.8% target share. That's down to 18.9% with Williams back and healthy. Williams is at just 16.9% himself but gets plenty of downfield work.
Kansas City Offense Notes
- Patrick Mahomes ($8,600) tallied 443 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Raiders back in Week 2 on the road. He has ranked second in Passing NEP per drop back on the season. He is good.
- In games with Mahomes starting, we have just two where Tyreek Hill ($8,300) has played at least half the snaps. Sammy Watkins ($6,100) played in just one of those. So we have a hard time pinpointing specific market shares, but they've treated Hill, Travis Kelce ($7,100), and Watkins as the clear-cut top trio when healthy, and they're the three worth targeting both in stacks with Mahomes and without him.
- Oakland ranks 18th in Target Success rate against receivers and 5th against tight ends.
- With the status of Damien Williams ($6,000) up in the air, we could see a healthy dose of Darrel Williams ($5,400), who played 42.7% of snaps in Week 11 when Damien Williams left after a 17.7% snap rate. LeSean McCoy ($5,800) played 39.7%. Darrel Williams rates out better than McCoy.
Core Plays: Darren Waller, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce
Secondary Plays: Sammy Watkins
Tournament Plays: Tyrell Williams, Josh Jacobs, Darrel Williams, LeSean McCoy
LA Chargers at Denver
|Over/Under | Spread||38.5||+2.5|
|Implied Team Total||20.5||18.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||27%||34%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog||71%||14%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||30||13|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||25||9|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||24||11|
The public numbers are on the under, but there's so much money on the over that it makes you wonder. Problematically, we can't trust the Denver Broncos to take advantage of a plus matchup. The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off a bye, and well, they haven't exactly been predictable either. Still, this game is somewhat fun.
LA Chargers Offense Notes
- Philip Rivers ($7,300) is a puzzling case. In seven games against top-half pass defenses, he has thrown for 291.6 yards per game (52.3 more than the NFL average in that split) with above-average passing efficiency, but he has more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (9) there. This offense has looked inept at times.
- Since having Hunter Henry ($6,600), Melvin Gordon ($7,000), and Mike Williams ($5,700) back in the lineup in Week 6, the team's target distribution has been 25.4% for Keenan Allen ($6,800), 23.0% for Henry, 16.0% for Williams, and 15.5% for Austin Ekeler ($6,700). Williams has yet to score this season and is inevitable for a touchdown soon. Allen has had 11, 10, 4, 11, and 12 targets the past five games after averaging 14.0 through the first three weeks and 6.0 from Weeks 4 through 6. Allen also leads the team with 16 deep targets since Week 6. Williams has 13. Henry has nine. Problematically, Allen will have to deal with Chris Harris, though the coverage was spread out with Allen in Week 5. It could be a Mike Williams breakthrough.
- Henry ranks third among all tight ends in target share in this split. Denver is 25th against tight ends in Target Success Rate allowed.
- Gordon has 71.8% of the carries between he and Ekeler over the past five games. Ekeler has 64.4% of the targets, including 12 of 17 in Week 11. Gordon is a good game theory bet if you play the angle of a Chargers rout.
Denver Offense Notes
- Brandon Allen ($6,600) has been awful this year but has thrown over half his passes to Courtland Sutton ($6,600; 31.6%) and Noah Fant ($5,100; 25.3%). Sutton also has 48.3% of the air yards, while Fant is at 20.5% in this three-game sample.
- The Chargers rank just 27th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers, putting a lot of emphasis on Sutton, despite his quarterback's passing efficiency. Fant's price keeps him in play despite the low total and tougher matchup (the Chargers are 12th against tight ends).
- Phillip Lindsay ($6,300) has overtaken Royce Freeman ($5,300) in the opportunity category of late, generating 9, 18, and 16 the past three games (43 total). Freeman has had 6, 9, and 4 (19 total). The Chargers are a soft matchup against backs, so Lindsay is looking like a fine mid-level play.
Core Plays: Hunter Henry
Secondary Plays: Phillip Lindsay, Melvin Gordon, Courtland Sutton, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Noah Fant
Tournament Plays: Austin Ekeler