FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 11 Thursday Night
If you like points, you may want to watch something else tonight.
The matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers has a mere 41.5-point total, with Cleveland a 3.0-point home favorite. The betting public likes the Steelers a lot. A whopping 92% of the bets -- and 73% of the cash -- on the moneyline are coming in for Pittsburgh, per oddsFire.
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
Nick Chubb, RB, Browns ($14,000)
The low total (41.5) makes quarterbacks slightly less appealing MVP choices than usual, and it makes this a fun slate, one where you can go any number of ways when building your lineup.
Nick Chubb may wind up being this slate's highest-owned player. Our models have him as the night's top option, projecting him for 16.7 FanDuel points. The matchup is a brutal one as Pittsburgh sits third in overall defense and second in run D, per our schedule-adjusted metrics. Volume is a heck of a drug, though, and Chubb has seen exactly 20 carries in four straight, amassing 434 rushing yards in that span, including big games against the solid defenses of the Buffalo Bills (116 rushing yards) and New England Patriots (131 rushing yards).
Kareem Hunt was a factor in the passing game last week in his debut, so if you're running with the idea of a Pittsburgh win, you may want to lessen your exposure to Chubb. If you're building under the assumption of a Browns win -- they're 3.0-point favorites -- Chubb is incredibly enticing.
James Conner, RB, Steelers ($14,500)
It's rare for neither quarterback to be one of the top-two projected plays on a single-game slate, but that's what we have tonight as James Conner comes in on Chubb's heels, per our models, with a projected total of 16.5 FanDuel points.
Conner got in a full practice Tuesday and was left off the final injury report, so he should be locked and loaded for this AFC North matchup. In his last two games, Conner averaged 19.5 carries and 5.5 targets, and we project him to see plenty of opportunities tonight (16.6 carries and 5.6 targets).
Cleveland has struggled versus the run this season, ranking as the seventh-worst run D by our numbers. They're roughly at the league average against the pass, so with Mason Rudolph at the controls, the path to a win for the Steelers will likely be riding Conner.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns ($15,500)
Quarterbacks are never going to be all that contrarian on single-game slates, but with the low total and overall meh play from Rudolph and Baker Mayfield this season, using one of them in your MVP slot could be a way to gain some leverage on the field.
I'd lean Mayfield over Rudolph, and our models agree, projecting Baker for 16.0 FanDuel points, 1.6 more than Rudolph.
While the matchup is difficult as Pittsburgh has been outstanding against the pass since landing Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Steelers have also feasted on weak competition, facing Road Goff, Brian Hoyer, and Ryan Fitzpatrick the last three games. Is Mayfield much better than those three? Maybe not. But stacking the Cleveland passing game could pay off in a big way today if the masses load up on Conner and Chubb.
Odell Beckham, WR, Browns ($11,500)
But, per AirYards.com, OBJ sits in the top 12 among wideouts in air yards, air yards market share, yards after the catch, targets and target share. What's missing is touchdowns as he's got one score on the year.
Given his usage, Beckham is going to pop for a big game at some point. Yes, the matchup with Pittsburgh is a rough one, but one big play from OBJ can swing this slate. Plus, the salary makes him just the sixth-most expensive player on the slate while our projections rank him as the top receiver by a wide margin, forecasting him for 3.4 more FanDuel points than any other wideout.
Austin Seibert, K, Browns ($9,000)
Kickers are worth looking into on single-game slates, especially when the game has a total as low as 41.5. Our models give Austin Seibert the edge over Chris Boswell, pegging Seibert for 9.1 FanDuel points.
While it's not going to be ideal kicking weather (34 degrees with an 11 MPH wind), Seibert has been superb on his field goal tries this season, going 16 for 16, though he hasn't attempted one from 50-plus.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers ($8,500)
Diontae Johnson earned his first start in Week 3. Since then...
WR Rating: 87.7
WR Rating: 130.8
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 11, 2019
Johnson has at least six targets in five of the Steelers' past seven games, though the pair of exceptions were two-target outings. We have Johnson as the slate's best point-per-dollar value among players priced below $9,000.