Fantasy Football: Gdula's Game Notes for Week 11
numberFire has no shortage of tools -- lineup generators, fantasy projections, and more -- to help you round out your rosters, but some extra prep never hurt anyone. So, here are some notes to know about each and every game on FanDuel's main slate for Week 11.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
NY Jets at Washington
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Buffalo at Miami
Houston at Baltimore
Denver at Minnesota
Dallas at Detroit
Atlanta at Carolina
Arizona at San Francisco
Cincinnati at Oakland
New England at Philadelphia
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
|Over/Under | Spread||44.0||-3.0|
|Implied Team Total||20.5||23.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||15%||33%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||17%||21%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||25||23|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||17||12|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||21||20|
- A first-time-around meeting for the divisional opponents sets up for the under, as both teams are bottom-10 in adjusted pace. The betting action tracks. Nick Foles ($7,000) will be returning. Jacoby Brissett ($7,500) is trending for a return, but this one still could wind up a dud.
Jacksonville Offense Notes
- Foles' return should, in theory, help the offense, as Gardner Minshew ultimately owned (at best) league-average efficiency.
- Foles' return, though, throws a wrench into the market shares for D.J. Chark ($6,000), Dede Westbrook ($5,400), and Chris Conley ($5,500), though we should assume Chark leads the pass-catchers in targets. Chark has averaged 95.2 air yards per game, 21st among receivers. Conley has 73.1 (46th) and Westbrook has 45.3 (90th), though the targets rank them Chark (7.8), Westbrook (7.0), and Conley (5.2) on a per-game basis.
- Leonard Fournette ($7,200) brings a stellar workload (25.0 opportunities per game) up against a mid-level rush defense, one that ranks 15th in Rushing Success Rate and 11th in yards before contact allowed to backs. He's a top-five running back play even as a road underdog.
Indianapolis Offense Notes
- Marlon Mack ($7,300) is again a home favorite, up against the NFL's 32nd-ranked rush defense by yards before contact allowed (though they're 12th in Rushing Success Rate). He's a risky play if the Indianapolis Colts trail, so there's extra emphasis on Brissett's health when looking at Mack.
- Since losing Jalen Ramsey, the Jacksonville Jaguars rank 22nd in Passing Success Rate allowed.
- Brissett's target distribution in three games without T.Y. Hilton: 13 for Zach Pascal ($6,200) and Parris Campbell (out), 12 for Jack Doyle ($5,400), 11 for Chester Rogers ($5,200), and 10 for Nyheim Hines ($4,900).
- Eric Ebron ($5,200) had a team-high 12 targets last game from Brian Hoyer.
Core Plays: Leonard Fournette
Secondary Plays: D.J. Chark
Tournament Plays: Marlon Mack, Jacoby Brissett, Jack Doyle, Zach Pascal
NY Jets at Washington
|Over/Under | Spread||38.5||-1.0|
|Implied Team Total||18.75||19.75|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||83%||17%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||92%||12%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||12||29|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||26||28|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||3||18|
- This is a game we can pretty much write off with 10 others from which to choose. The total is low, and neither team is appealing. We also know that Washington wants to grind it out and erase the clock. There's action on the over, but that doesn't mean much with it sitting at 38.5.
NY Jets Offense Notes
- Since Sam Darnold's ($7,300) return, his targets have flowed through Jamison Crowder ($6,500; 22.1%), Demaryius Thomas ($5,200; 20.1%), and Robby Anderson ($5,400; 18.8%). Anderson has 13 deep targets in that span, followed by Thomas (11) and Crowder and Vyncint Smith ($4,600) with 6. Washington is 23rd against the deep pass.
- Darnold has played just one top-16 pass defense. Removing that game, he has averaged 243.6 yards and 1.4 touchdowns. That 0.03 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back is 0.15 points off the NFL average against bottom-half pass defenses.
- Le'Veon Bell ($7,400) is up against a mid-level adjusted rush defense (Washington is also 18th in Rushing Success Rate allowed to running backs) but runs behind the line that generates the fewest yards before contact in the NFL. Having maxed out at 16.1 FanDuel points since Week 2, Bell doesn't have the touchdown equity to consider for cash games.
Washington Offense Notes
- Dwayne Haskins ($6,500) has yet to throw a touchdown pass on the season, and in his two starts, he has generated -0.40 Passing NEP per drop back (the NFL average is a positive 0.10). That lowers the ceiling for the entire offense. Haskins' target distribution in his two starts: 27.9% for Terry McLaurin ($5,500), 20.9% for Paul Richardson ($5,000), 14.0% for Trey Quinn ($4,700). He has thrown deep just three times in those two starts.
- Derrius Guice ($4,700) returns to a backfield that has been dominated by Adrian Peterson ($6,300). Peterson clung to relevancy due to 20.0 opportunities per game since Week 6, and now that floor is probably gone. Guice has some appeal at such a low salary.
Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Le'Veon Bell
Tournament Plays: Derrius Guice, Terry McLaurin
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
|Matchup||New Orleans||Tampa Bay|
|Over/Under | Spread||50.0||+5.0|
|Implied Team Total||27.5||22.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||81%||21%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog||87%||17%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||27||6|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||9||23|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||7||1|
- One of the juiciest games on the docket has a ton of fantasy appeal and only a few paths to busting. It's a second-time-around divisional matchup, but the last game didn't feature Drew Brees ($8,300). Marshon Lattimore is week-to-week. Practically everyone is on the over.
New Orleans Offense Notes
- Brees and the New Orleans Saints fell flat last week in an eruption spot. Brees has doubled-up the NFL average in per-drop back efficiency, primarily from avoiding sacks overall, but his per-pass-attempt production has been a tinge above the NFL rate. That is to say that he hasn't been dominant.
- It doesn't matter for Michael Thomas ($9,000), who has a league-high 33.1% target share, good for 11.4 targets per game (also an NFL best). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 19th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers, not nearly enough to scare us off of Thomas.
- Tre'Quan Smith ($4,900) returned to play 82.6% of snaps, second-most among Saints receivers, out-snapping Ted Ginn Jr. ($5,200; 69.6%).
- Jared Cook ($6,000) also returned to play 71.0% of snaps and faces the NFL's 21st-ranked tight end defense by Target Success Rate.
- We probably didn't get a great glimpse of the proposed split between Alvin Kamara ($7,800) and Latavius Murray ($5,600) last week, when the Saints were thrust into negative game script. Kamara played 78.35 of snaps. Murray played just 24.6%. The Buccaneers have stifled the rush all season, ranking first in Rushing Success Rate and yards before contact allowed to backs. They're also second in Target Success Rate.
Tampa Bay Offense Notes
- If Lattimore is out, Mike Evans ($8,200) would be freed up after a 0-for-3 matchup with the Saints in Week 5. In that game, Chris Godwin ($8,000) went off for 125 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 targets. On the season, Evans has a 26.0% target share and 38.0% of the team's air yards. Godwin is at 24.3% and 24.4%, respectively. Evans has the better workload, but Godwin would have the better matchup.
- Jameis Winston ($7,600) rates out just 25th in Passing NEP per drop back and commands the NFL's 16th-ranked adjusted passing offense, based on numberFire's metrics. In a shootout, he's got a high ceiling, and the floor has been there. He's had 17-plus FanDuel points in seven straight games.
- O.J. Howard ($5,300) returned to run 74.5% of the team's pass routes last week and had 7 targets in a plush matchup. The Saints are 26th in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends, so we could do worse with his price still reasonable.
- Ronald Jones ($6,400) played 47.1% of snaps last week and ran 41.8% of the Bucs' pass routes while seeing 8 targets. He's still splitting the rushing workload with Peyton Barber ($5,500), and the Saints are third in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs. (And sixth in Target Success Rate.)
Core Plays: Michael Thomas, Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
Secondary Plays: Alvin Kamara, Drew Brees, Jared Cook
Tournament Plays: O.J. Howard, Ronald Jones
Buffalo at Miami
|Over/Under | Spread||41.0||+5.5|
|Implied Team Total||23.25||17.75|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||41%||41%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog||64%||33%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||16||3|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||20||32|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||29||27|
- We have a divisional rematch here, which always makes me a bit nervous. The first showing was a 31-21 Week 7 tilt, but the Miami Dolphins are showing life and have won two straight games. There could be play volume despite the low total -- given the tempos. The money is on the over, but the majority of bets are not.
Buffalo Offense Notes
- Josh Allen ($7,800) has played plenty of subpar pass defenses but doesn't always come through. Against bottom-half pass defenses, Allen has averaged 221.0 yards and 1.1 passing touchdowns in seven games while owning efficiency that would put him as a league-average passer (against all opponents). So, Allen against the league's worst defenses is an average passer.
- The team's target distribution since a Week 6 bye: 27.6% for John Brown ($5,900), 18.1% for Cole Beasley ($5,500), 14.7% for Devin Singletary ($6,500), and 12.1% for Dawson Knox ($4,500). Brown has 16 of 32 deep attempts and a 44.1% air yards share in that span. Miami is 24th against the deep ball. Miami is actually 10th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers but 31st in slot yards per snap allowed, so that bodes well for Beasley.
- Singletary has been right at two-thirds of the snaps in three straight games with opportunity numbers of 9, 24, and 15. As a steady favorite and up against a bottom-five rush defense, he makes some sense as a mid-level play.
Miami Offense Notes
- With their injuries and suspensions, the Dolphins featured Kalen Ballage ($5,300) and DeVante Parker ($5,600) last week. Ballage had 20 carries and 4 targets while playing 81.8% of the team's snaps. Parker had 10 targets last week (30.3%) and 69.4% of the team's air yards. The Buffalo Bills are fifth in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers. He figures to draw shadow coverage from Tre'Davious White.
- Michael Gesicki ($5,100) saw 6 targets last week while running a season-high 74.4% of routes. Buffalo is third against tight ends in Target Success Rate.
- The implied total isn't even 18 points, so there's not much to get excited about unless playing for the over.
Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: John Brown, Josh Allen, Dawson Knox, Mike Gesicki
Tournament Plays: Devin Singletary, DeVante Parker
Houston at Baltimore
|Over/Under | Spread||49.0||-4.5|
|Implied Team Total||22.25||26.75|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||91%||60%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||96%||26%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||19||32|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||14||11|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||14||31|
- A stack-'em-up game with plenty of fantasy appeal, this Houston Texans/Baltimore Ravens matchup should be one of the most popular games on the slate. For good reason. More than 90% of the bets are on the over, and almost all of the money is, as well, but there's sharp action on the Texans' side of the ball.
Houston Offense Notes
- Fresh off a bye, Deshaun Watson ($8,200) faces a top-12 pass defense. Against top-half opponents, he has averaged 254.0 yards and 1.3 touchdowns with well-above-average efficiency. Since Week 5, Watson has generated 0.42 Passing NEP per drop back, more than four times the league average, with a Passing Success Rate of 60.1% and 8.49 yards per attempt.
- Will Fuller ($6,300) practiced Tuesday, and if he plays, we should be bumping down Kenny Stills ($5,500). In games with Fuller playing relevant snaps, the target distribution is 28.1% for DeAndre Hopkins ($8,300), 24.1% for Fuller, 10.1% for Darren Fells ($5,100). Fuller has 37.3% of the air yards, while Hopkins has 29.5%. Baltimore is 20th in adjusted yards per attempt against deep passes.
- The script suggests a bigger role for Duke Johnson ($5,900) than Carlos Hyde ($6,300), as the Texans are road underdogs. In three losses, Hyde has averaged a 41.7% snap rate (it's 57.5% in wins). Johnson has averaged 62.6% of the snaps in losses but 42.7% in wins. Baltimore is bottom-six in Success Rate allowed on the ground and through the air to backs.
Baltimore Offense Notes
- Lamar Jackson ($8,800) is very much a cash-game viable quarterback despite the price. He has scored at least 21 FanDuel points in every game but one. The one blemish is the mid-level matchup, but Jackson has produced 0.07 Passing NEP per drop back against top-half pass defenses while the NFL average in that split is 0.03.
- Marquise Brown ($5,600) has just 44 air yards on 8 targets since returning (an anomalistic 5.5 yard average target depth compared to 13.7 prior). Houston has capped the deep ball and ranks sixth in adjusted yard per attempt allowed on passes traveling 16-plus yards downfield. I'd really only be using Brown in tournaments given the usage.
- The toughest tight end defense in the NFL (first in Target Success Rate and third in FanDuel points per target) awaits Mark Andrews ($6,900). Even in two games with Brown back, Andrews has a 25.6% target share and 37.7% of the air yards.
- Sure, Mark Ingram ($7,500) is in a high-totaled game against an average rush defense, but he has played 44.3% and 48.9% of snaps in two post-bye games with 15 and 9 carries. He has not had 20 carries in a game due to his role and the Ravens' play volume, and he has just once had more than 3 targets.
Core Plays: Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Mark Andrews
Secondary Plays: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller
Tournament Plays: Marquise Brown, Mark Ingram, Duke Johnson
Denver at Minnesota
|Over/Under | Spread||40.5||-10.5|
|Implied Team Total||15.0||25.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||76%||70%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||92%||70%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||12||20|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||10||8|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||13||5|
- This one looks to be a runaway for the Minnesota Vikings, one that features few points on either side and some clock-draining tempo from the Vikings. You probably won't regret avoiding this one -- outside of a piece or maybe two. There's action on the over, for what it's worth.
Denver Offense Notes
- In the first start for Brandon Allen ($6,800), he was pretty much not great, posting a 39.1% Passing Success Rate on 23 drop backs. He did accrue a pair of touchdowns, but one was a gnarly end-zone grab by Courtland Sutton ($6,600) and the other a 75-yard catch-and-rumble by Noah Fant ($5,100).
- Allen did feature Sutton on 8 of his 20 pass attempts and gave Fant 4. Sutton also had two of the four deep targets; Fant had one, as did Diontae Spencer ($4,800).
- Royce Freeman ($5,800) has led the backfield in snap rate in six straight games over Phillip Lindsay ($6,600), though Lindsay has a 64 to 51 carry lead in that sample. It's about as close of a timeshare as we can get, and the touchdown equity is quite low this week.
Minnesota Offense Notes
- Dalvin Cook ($8,600) is a double-digit home favorite against a team that ranks 13th in adjusted rushing defense and 8th in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs. His overall workload (25.1 opportunities) makes him the top running back play in my projections.
- Without Adam Thielen ($7,000) since -- virtually -- Week 7, Stefon Diggs ($7,300) has carved out just a 21.0% target share, compared to 25.5% prior. His air yards share fell from 49.6% to 35.4%, as well. Diggs should benefit if Thielen returns but still runs into a matchup with Chris Harris.
- Irv Smith Jr. ($4,700) and Kyle Rudolph ($4,500) have gotten bumps with Thielen limited. Smith has 5.3 targets per game, while Rudolph has 4.8. Both have run at least 60% of routes in those four games, with Rudolph having the edge. As huge home favorites, it's a good script for tight ends.
Core Plays: Dalvin Cook
Secondary Plays: Noah Fant
Tournament Plays: Courtland Sutton, Irv Smith Jr., Kyle Rudolph, Stefon Diggs, Royce Freeman, Phillip Lindsay
Dallas at Detroit
|Over/Under | Spread||49.0||+3.5|
|Implied Team Total||26.25||22.75|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||N/A%||5%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog||N/A%||2%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||9||7|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||22||16|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||19||23|
- The high total, tight spread, and fast paces make this game very, very intriguing, and we generally know where the ball is going in these offenses. But we will need to monitor Matthew Stafford's health.
Dallas Offense Notes
- Dak Prescott ($8,100) has carved up non-elite defenses, producing 282.2 yards and 2.2 touchdowns (for 0.40 Passing NEP per drop back, four times the NFL's full-season average) against pass defenses outside the top 12.
- Since Michael Gallup's ($6,700) Week 5 return, the target shares are 22.7% for Amari Cooper ($8,100), 22.2% for Gallup, 15.7% for Jason Witten ($5,600), 13.5% for Randall Cobb ($5,400), and 10.8% for Ezekiel Elliott ($8,400). Cooper barely played in Week 6. Removing that game, his share jumps to 26.0%. Despite a one-target lead over Gallup (42 to 41) over that full sample (so, without removing Week 6), Cooper's 16 deep targets still rank sixth among receivers in that split, and Gallup has just 6. Cobb actually has nine. As a team, the Detroit Lions rank 6th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers but are 27th since Week 5. They're 29th against tight ends on the full season. The arrow is up on the three receivers and Witten.
- Elliott's limited receiving has really done a number on his ceiling and floor. Elliott has three targets over the past two games but has averaged 5.0 since Gallup's return. That may not matter, as Detroit ranks 25th in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs.
Detroit Offense Notes
- Assuming Stafford sits again, we'll have another week of Jeff Driskel ($6,700) under center. Driskel was dreadful against a top-five pass defense last week, losing 0.17 Passing NEP per drop back. He did throw deep 11 times, so 23.9% of his drop backs. That rate would rank him fifth on the full season. The Dallas Cowboys rank ninth against the deep pass, though, and they're first in adjusted pressure rate. The stock is down on this offense.
- Driskel threw 43 targeted passes in Week 10. Kenny Golladay ($7,600) had 9, Danny Amendola ($5,400) had 8, J.D. McKissic ($5,800) had 7, Marvin Jones ($6,600) and T.J. Hockenson ($5,300) had 6. Jones had five deep targets; Golladay had four. Dallas rates out 15th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers and 7th since Week 5. They're 23rd against tight ends.
Core Plays: Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper
Secondary Plays: Ezekiel Elliott
Tournament Plays: Michael Gallup, Randall Cobb, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones
Atlanta at Carolina
|Over/Under | Spread||49.5||-5.5|
|Implied Team Total||22.0||27.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||48%||55%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||29%||47%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||22||3|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||30||3|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||15||32|
- This is the first meeting between the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons on the season, and this game is ripe with fantasy appeal on both sides of the ball. However, a lot of the money is coming in on the under.
Atlanta Offense Notes
- Austin Hooper is dealing with a sprained MCL, which should funnel even more of the volume to Julio Jones ($7,800), Calvin Ridley ($5,500), and Russell Gage ($5,300). In two games without Mohamed Sanu, Jones has 25.9% of the targets, Gage has 17.3%, and Ridley, Hooper, and Devonta Freeman have 14.3%. Hooper and Freeman should both be out this week. Everything points to steady volume for Jones and Ridley. Gage has run 64.8% and 86.8% of routes in these two games and is certainly viable in game stacks.
- Matt Ryan ($7,600) rates out 14th in Passing NEP per drop back in a pass-heavy offense. The Panthers are top-six in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play and Passing Success Rate.
- Brian Hill ($5,900) could be a featured back against the NFL's 32nd-ranked adjusted rush defense, one that is also 30th in Rushing Success Rate allowed to running backs. He's in the cash-game consideration set despite the lack of guaranteed volume. He played 50.6% of snaps last week.
Carolina Offense Notes
- Christian McCaffrey ($10,500) played 100% of snaps last week after rates of 78.3% and 85.9% in two games prior. He has averaged 27.6 FanDuel points in three since the bye.
- Kyle Allen ($7,200) is down to 0.03 Passing NEP per drop back on the season, 25th among 35 qualified quarterbacks. He had been hovering around league-average efficiency through his first few starts. But in three games against bottom-half pass defenses, Allen has posted 0.29 Passing NEP per drop back. The average in that split is 0.18. That has led to 223.0 yards but 2.3 touchdowns per contest.
- Since Week 3 with Allen under center, the Panthers' targets have fixated on four players. D.J. Moore ($6,000) has a 24.7% share, Curtis Samuel ($6,300) is at 22.9%, McCaffrey has 19.3%, and Greg Olsen ($5,100) is at 16.6%. Both Moore and Samuel are top-15 among receivers in deep targets in that span. Atlanta is 32nd in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers and 25th against deep passes.
Core Plays: Calvin Ridley, D.J. Moore, Brian Hill, Julio Jones, Greg Olsen
Secondary Plays: Matt Ryan, Kyle Allen, Curtis Samuel
Tournament Plays: Russell Gage
Arizona at San Francisco
|Over/Under | Spread||45.0||-11.5|
|Implied Team Total||16.75||28.25|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||79%||17%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||77%||9%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||2||11|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||29||2|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||24||11|
- This will be the second time in three weeks that the San Francisco 49ers have played the Arizona Cardinals, the first meeting being a 28-25 win for the 49ers on Thursday night in Week 9 (though the game wasn't really that close). While Arizona's low total initially makes them look tough to love on an 11-game slate, heavy money is on the Cardinals and the over.
Arizona Offense Notes
- Kyler Murray ($7,600) threw for 241 yards and 2 touchdowns against San Francisco two weeks ago, good for a mark three times the NFL average in per-play Passing NEP. Given how good San Francisco has been all season, we should treat Murray as a tournament-only play.
- That concern trickles down to Christian Kirk ($6,200), who has a 26.5% target share and 38.5% air yards share in three games since returning from injury. Larry Fitzgerald ($5,400) is at 16.3% and 9.1%, respectively. In their Week 9 matchup, Kirk had 8 yards and 18 air yards on 5 targets; Fitzgerald had 38 yards and 10 air yards on 4 targets.
- Last week with Kenyan Drake ($6,300) and David Johnson ($6,200) in action, Drake played 64.3% of snaps while Johnson played 42.9%. Drake also had 10 carries and 7 targets; Johnson had 5 and 1, respectively.
San Francisco Offense Notes
- Tevin Coleman ($6,700) has averaged a 54.8% snap rate over the past five games. Matt Breida (out) is at 31.7% in that span. The rushing split is just 45.5% for Coleman and 37.0% for Breida, though, so it's closer than you may think. As huge home favorites, Coleman has appeal. Raheem Mostert ($4,600) also has some juice at near-minimum, as he should take over Breida's role.
- Jimmy Garoppolo's ($8,000) only 300-yard game this season came against the Cardinals in Week 9 -- and he threw 4 touchdowns in that game. Arizona is 29th against the pass, and even if Patrick Peterson plays, he's not going to be 100%. The price is high for someone who hasn't been bankable this year.
- George Kittle ($7,500) may play.Emmanuel Sanders ($6,900) is a game-time decision. Sanders played just 29.6% of snaps in Week 10, but in Weeks 8 and 9, he had 23.3% of the team's targets and 38.6% of the air yards. If Sanders and Kittle play, they're in play even at elevated salaries but not musts at those prices. If not, Deebo Samuel ($5,600) would stand out after getting 11 of 44 targets in Week 10.
Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Tevin Coleman, Christian Kirk, Deebo Samuel
Tournament Plays: Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake, George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders
Cincinnati at Oakland
|Over/Under | Spread||48.5||-10.5|
|Implied Team Total||19.0||29.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||26%||75%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||77%||72%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||10||30|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||31||27|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||22||17|
- This game should be lopsided in favor of the Oakland Raiders, and the Cincinnati Bengals with Ryan Finley ($6,300) just may not have the ability to close the gap. There's still a lot of money on the over, which is intriguing for differentiation game stacks.
Cincinnati Offense Notes
- Finley lost -0.65 Passing NEP per drop back in his Week 10 debut and threw only 4 deep passes (out of 30). Thankfully, at least, he threw often to Tyler Boyd ($5,900; 8 targets), followed by Auden Tate ($5,300; 6), Tyler Eifert ($5,000; 4), and Stanley Morgan Jr. ($4,500; 4). The ceiling is capped unless Finley takes advantage of the NFL's 27th-ranked pass defense.
- Joe Mixon ($6,600) handled 30 carries last week for 114 yards and also had 3 targets. He played a season-high 76.0% snap rate, though Giovani Bernard ($4,700) did leave mid-game due to injury before returning. As a 10.5-point underdog, he's a tough sell.
Oakland Offense Notes
- Josh Jacobs ($8,000) is priced way up here in a spot against the NFL's 27th-ranked rush defense by Rushing Success Rate allowed to running backs. He's a huge home favorite, so it makes sense. He rarely cracks a 60% snap rate but gets heavy usage when on the field. It's just a really steep price for a back who won't see 80% of the snaps, but that probably doesn't matter this week with value elsewhere.
- Derek Carr ($7,400) ranks fourth in Passing NEP per drop back, and the Raiders are second in adjusted passing offense as a result. Cincinnati is 24th in adjusted pressure rate in addition to being a bottom-three pass defense.
- In three games with Tyrell Williams ($6,200) back in the lineup, it's Hunter Renfrow ($5,700) who leads the team with an 18.4% target share. Williams and Darren Waller ($6,700) have a 17.2% share. Jalen Richard ($5,000) is fourth at 12.6%. Williams has the majority of the deep work and air yards (36.5%). Waller's target share was 26.7% prior to these past three games. The matchup is green across the board.
Core Plays: Darren Waller, Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs
Secondary Plays: Tyrell Williams
Tournament Plays: Tyler Boyd, Hunter Renfrow, Auden Tate
New England at Philadelphia
|Over/Under | Spread||44.5||+3.5|
|Implied Team Total||24.0||20.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||82%||28%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog||66%||19%|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||16||26|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||1||21|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||10||9|
- The New England Patriots' defense is not one to pick on, Carson Wentz ($7,000) hasn't been that great, and the Philadelphia Eagles are always a messy team for DFS. The Patriots aren't exactly the most trustworthy team, either. Still, there's action on the over, and that's not nothing.
New England Offense Notes
- The Eagles are 21st in adjusted pass defense overall but 2nd in adjusted pressure rate. Tom Brady ($7,800) ranks just 14th in Passing NEP per drop back.
- Mohamed Sanu ($5,800) played 100% of snaps in his second game with the Patriots (after 53.6% in his debut). Julian Edelman ($7,400) played 100% as well, and Phillip Dorsett ($5,300) played 98.5%. There's no Josh Gordon here anymore, either. In that game, Sanu had 14 targets (34.1%). Edelman had 11 (26.8%). Benjamin Watson ($4,900) had 5 (12.2%). Dorsett had 4 (9.8%).
- James White ($6,100) led the backfield in that game with a 41.8% snap rate. Rex Burkhead ($4,900) played 35.8%. Sony Michel ($6,300) played 22.4%. There isn't enough for any single back.
Philadelphia Offense Notes
- Wentz has commanded the 22nd-best adjusted passing offense this year and has averaged 228.9 passing yards per game. The Pats are the NFL's best pass defense by far.
- Since Week 4 with Alshon Jeffery ($6,200) back, he has a 26.1% target share. Zach Ertz ($6,200) has a 23.9% share. Dallas Goedert ($5,000) is at 15.2%, and Nelson Agholor ($4,800) has had 14.7%. The low-upside nature of the matchup keeps them all outside of DFS confidence territory.
- Jordan Howard ($6,100) and Miles Sanders ($5,600) should split about 90% of the snaps, as usual, but the majority of those will depend on game script. Based on the 3.5-point spread, Sanders should be that guy, yet neither are of particular interest here.
Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Zach Ertz, Julian Edelman, Mohamed Sanu
Tournament Plays: Miles Sanders