Daily Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Primer: Week 10
Week 10 provides the smallest slate of the season, thanks to a season-high six teams on their bye. As a result, our options are more limited than usual, especially among the elite receivers. However, due to some favorable matchups and players seeing an increased role due to injuries, there's strong list of cheaper receivers on the slate.
Based on the players available, it might be a good weekend to save your money at the receiver position and load up on high-priced running backs.
In this preview, I'll break down the wide receivers into three categories based on FanDuel's prices: players to build around, value plays, and players to avoid.
Players to build around are more expensive, but their ceilings are high enough that you should consider prioritizing them in your lineup. Value plays are cheaper options who usually come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the expensive stars. Players to avoid are guys you might normally consider at their price tag but have tough matchups and are unlikely to live up to their usual expectations.
All references to betting totals and spreads are from the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Receivers to Build Around
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints ($8,700) -- Michael Thomas is the only player to rank among the top-25 receivers every week this season (excluding his bye). On Sunday, he draws a struggling Atlanta Falcons defense that may be without cornerback Desmond Trufant. Given Thomas' consistency and ceiling, he's a tournament and cash game option every week.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($8,600) -- Through Week 5, Chris Godwin was the highest-scoring fantasy receiver in the league and had seen more targets than Mike Evans (43 to 36). Since Week 6, however, Evans is the highest scoring receiver in the league and has 45 targets compared to just 29 for Godwin. It's difficult to pinpoint why this shift occurred, but it's clear Evans has reestablished himself as Jameis Winston's favorite target. This week, Evans faces an Arizona Cardinals defense that's allowed a top-12 wide receiver performance in four of the last five weeks.
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams ($8,100) -- Since acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Pittsburgh Steelers are allowing 29.6 fantasy points per game to receivers lined up in the slot, according to Sports Info Solutions. That's an improvement from their early-season performance but still makes the Pittsburgh defense a good matchup for Cooper Kupp. With a 28 percent target share, Kupp is Jared Goff's weapon of choice, and 89.6 percent of Kupp's targets have come while lined up in the slot.
Zach Pascal, Indianapolis Colts ($6,400) -- Due to T.Y. Hilton's injury and the Miami Dolphins' defense, Zach Pascal might be the most obvious value play of the season. As a result, his ownership will be elevated, which might actually make him a better option for cash games than tournaments. In Hilton's absence last week, Pascal led the Indianapolis Colts with six targets and he will likely be in line for a similar, if not a larger, workload against Miami. In six of its eight games, Miami has allowed a top-15 fantasy output to a wide receiver, giving Pascal a strong ceiling in this matchup.
Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers ($6,100) -- Curtis Samuel's production has been wildly inconsistent, but he draws a favorable matchup this week against the Green Bay Packers in which he'll likely see significant snaps lined up across from struggling second-year cornerback Jaire Alexander. According to Sports Info Solutions, Alexander has allowed 54.7 fantasy points in coverage over the Packers last five games, the second-most among cornerbacks in that span. Green Bay is favored by 5.5 points, which likely dictates a higher passing volume than usual for Kyle Allen, potentially giving another boost to Samuel's value this week.
Robby Anderson, New York Jets ($5,900) -- The New York Jets' offense has been wildly inconsistent, even with Sam Darnold back at quarterback, so Robby Anderson should be viewed strictly as a tournament dart throw. However, he does have a high ceiling due to his role as the Jets' deep threat and the New York Giants' inability to defend the deep ball. According to Sports Info Solutions, New York has allowed seven touchdowns on throws 20 or more yards downfield, the second-most in the league.
Devante Parker, Miami Dolphins ($5,800) -- Considering the Dolphins' struggles, DeVante Parker has been a surprisingly reliable fantasy weapon this season. 60 percent of Parker's targets have come at least 10 yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions, which allows him to produce without a huge volume. His role in Miami's offense makes him an ideal target this week against the Colts, who are allowing a completion percentage of 63.9 percent on throws 10 or more yards downfield, the worst rate in the league.
Josh Reynolds, Los Angeles Rams ($5,200) -- The Rams will be without Brandin Cooks due to a concussion, which opens the door for Josh Reynolds to assume a productive role in the offense. Cooks was knocked out of last week's game early in the first half, which paved the way for Reynolds to rack up 14.3 fantasy points on eight targets. Reynolds already has a good rapport with Goff due to the role he played filling in for Kupp last season. During nine starts at the end of the 2018 season, including the playoffs, Reynolds averaged 6.6 targets per game.
Receivers to Avoid
Odell Beckham, Cleveland Browns ($6,900) -- Odell Beckham has been a frequent visitor to this section of the wide receiver primer, and it remains difficult to make a case for putting him in your lineup. Beckham has finished as 40th or worse among wide receivers in five of eight weeks and has cracked the top-20 just twice. Despite those facts, he's the 11th-highest priced receiver on the main slate. This week, Beckham draws a Bills secondary that has not allowed a top-15 score to a wide receiver all season -- the only defense to accomplish that feat.
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons ($5,300) -- Given his expected workload, this is a reasonable price for Calvin Ridley in a normal week. Unfortunately, he will likely draw consistent coverage from New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore in this matchup. After a shaky start, Lattimore has resumed his role as a shutdown corner in recent weeks. According to Sports Info Solutions, Lattimore is allowing 2.6 fantasy points per 30 snaps in coverage since Week 5, the lowest rate in the league. Even with Matt Ryan expected to return, this looks like a bad spot for Ridley.
Ryan McCrystal is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan McCrystal also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username cfbfilmroom. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.