Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football Primer: Week 10
Each week, this piece will go position-by-position on the main Yahoo daily fantasy football slate, looking at high-priced and value options who are viable in cash and GPP lineups.
A standard cash line in a Yahoo contest is typically around 125 points. Some weeks I have seen 115 points get in the money, while some weeks it is 135 or slightly higher. But 125, over the course of a season, is a safe bet to try and hit each week.
Much debate has arisen over the past two weeks across DFS sites over the price threshold for Christian McCaffrey and what he would have to cost before DFS owners would not pay up for him in cash games. On Yahoo, it's a pretty simple math equation. In Week 10, McCaffery is $41, his highest price tag of the season. This number represents 20.5% of the $200 salary cap in Yahoo.
McCaffrey is averaging 28.2 fantasy points per game on that site, even including the six points he earned in Week 2. These 28.2 points are 22.6% of the 125 points needed each week, on average, to cash. Applying that percentage to the Yahoo salary cap and using the 28.2 points as weekly production, we learn that McCaffery could see his price rise to $45 before his production towards the 125 point goal would even equal the amount of salary cap required. So, CMC still has 9.7% of upward movement left in his $41 salary before we can even start the conversation that he is too expensive.
Considering this is the only time all season Yahoo has priced a running back over $40, the trends tell the story that we likely won't see the day in 2019 where CMC is not worth jamming into cash lineups every week.
Let's dive into the rest of the position-by-position analysis for Week 10.
Drew Brees ($34) - Brees is in a dome. He is at home -- his quarterback rating is 11 points higher for his career when he is at home. He is playing the Atlanta Falcons, ranked 31st in net expected points (NEP) per passing play. The Falcons have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to both the quarterback and wide receiver position this year.
Looking at quarterbacks who have at least 80 snaps on the season, Brees still leads the league in passing NEP per dropback and passing success rate. The Saints finally have a full complement of weapons on Sunday, and I expect them to come out firing against their divisional foe.
Devin Singletary ($19) - The changing of the guard is fully underway in Buffalo as Singletary, now healthy, played 66% of the snaps to Frank Gore's 34% in Week 9. He also almost doubled Gore's percentage of the rushing shares at 51% to 28%. Any Buffalo Bills running back has the misfortune of also having to compete with Josh Allen, but Singletary is beginning to separate himself as the most dynamic rusher on the team.
Through the first eight weeks of the season (yes, he was injured part of that time), Singletary saw two total red zone touches. In Week 9, he was given five red zone rush attempts in what clearly is an indication the coaching staff trusts him with the high-leverage carries. Against a Cleveland Browns team (26th ranked rushing defense) that is devolving before our eyes, Singletary should continue to see his role and time on the field increase.
Mike Evans ($32) - As noted earlier this week by FanDuel, Mike Evans has taken over the top spot in terms of wide receiver points per game in 2019.
For the first time this season Mike Evans tops the list of WRs pic.twitter.com/aZMqB8Yhoo
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) November 6, 2019
Evans typically comes with a label attached that screams "Inconsistency!", but that has hardly been the case the last three weeks when he has 30, 37, and 16 FanDuel points. We do see a zero and a 3.8 for Evans this season in his gamelog, but he leads the NFL in air yards by almost 200 yards, has the fourth-highest average depth of target (aDOT) in the league, and has the second-highest total receiving NEP in the league -- we are willing to take on the risk for the potential reward. Against the 28th-ranked Arizona Cardinals passing defense, the risk factor seems awful low this week -- Evans is projected for the third-most points at the position this week by our models.
Zach Pascal ($17) - Pascal seamlessly stepped into the alpha wide receiver role with T.Y. Hilton sidelined last week. He was on the field for 94% of the Indianapolis Colts' snaps and led the team with six targets, 76 receiving yards, 80 air yards, and a 13.33 aDOT.
Pascal's reward for the promotion to lead dog (colt) is a matchup against the worst passing defense in the league -- the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins continue to hemorrhage points through the passing game, allowing 0.48 NEP per passing play, basically giving up half a point every time their opponent passes. Take advantage of the depressed price this week with the unquestioned top receiver for his team in the best possible matchup.
Michael Gesicki ($11) - On the other side of the field from Pascal, it won't surprise you to learn that the Miami Dolphins have needed to pass a lot in 2019. In fact, the Dolphins have the third-highest pass-run ratio in the league at 1.94. Week 9 was a solid outing for Gesicki as he led the team with 95 receiving yards. He was also second on the team in targets, air yards, target share, and yards after the catch.
The player who beat Gesicki in those categories -- Preston Williams -- is depressingly done for the year with an injury, opening up even more opportunity for the Dolphins' tight end. Ryan Fitzpatrick has developed into a quarterback who loves targeting the tight end. In the past two years, the Tampa Bay tight ends had 97 and 116 targets. With both Kenny Stills and Williams out of the Dolphins' offensive plans, look for Gisecki to pick up the slack on Sundays.