FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Afternoon-Slate Helper: Week 7
The Week 7 afternoon NFL DFS slate on FanDuel has three matchups, which kick off between 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. EST. The Seattle Seahawks-Baltimore Ravens matchups sits at 49.0, the highest on the slate, so that will likely be a popular game to stack.
Our NFL DFS Matchup Heat Map will be referenced for all implied totals and spreads throughout this article, so be sure to check it out.
Let’s check out the best plays at various prices on this short slate.
High Priced Studs
Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($7,600)
Chris Carson is the closest thing we have to a bell-cow back on this slate, making him an obvious candidate to build a lineup around. He has received at least 22 carries in each of the last three games and has nine catches over that span, as well.
Chris Carson had 124 yards on 24 carries against the Browns.
Per @NFLResearch he had 129 yards after contact.
That means the offensive line provided him with -0.21 yards before contact per rushing attempt.
— John P. Gilbert (@JohnPGilbertNFL) October 13, 2019
The Ravens' replacement for Tony Jefferson, their run-stuffing safety, also suffered a season-ending knee injury, making matters worse for a defense that ranks 26th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play. The Seahawks have been known to rack up rushes to kill the clock in the second half of games, and Baltimore might not have an answer for them.
Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers ($7,500)
Keenan Allen has disappointed in three straight weeks after opening the season as the top fantasy receiver. He hasn't bested 50 receiving yards since Week 3 and also faces a Tennessee Titans defense that ranks seventh in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. But Allen ranks top-five among receivers in air yards and receiving yards. On a small slate, his likely volume is hard to ignore.
Mid-Priced Upside Plays
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans ($6,500)
The Titans have officially made the switch to Ryan Tannehill, sending Marcus Mariota to the bench. While neither are much better than other, this could force the team to feature Derrick Henry. Henry has not been the most impressive runner, averaging -0.08 Rushing NEP per carry, but he's had at least 15 carries in every game this season. The Los Angeles Chargers rank 20th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, so the Titans could find success on the ground with their big back.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks ($6,500)
While we haven't seen a big game from Tyler Lockett in recent weeks, his incredible efficiency from 2018 has carried over. His Reception NEP per target of 0.97 ranks eighth-best among receivers with at least 30 targets, and his 85.37 percent catch rate is by far the highest.
Baltimore has given up big games to slot receivers this season and ranks 25th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. Lockett could hit his ceiling in this matchup.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens ($6,700)
After a monster start to the season, Mark Andrews and Lamar Jackson have cooled off in recent weeks. Andrews is still a dominant force, however, as only Travis Kelce bests his 0.85 Reception NEP per target.
Mark Andrews (foot, ankle, shoulder) not on injury report this week for the first time since Week 1. Meanwhile, Marquise Brown (ankle) still not practicing.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 17, 2019
Andrews is in a great matchup with the Seahawks, as they have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards, the sixth-most receptions, and the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. Andrews is also the Ravens' leader in receiving yards on the season with 410. Our projections have him going for 64 yards, the most among tight ends on the slate.
Bargain Bin Prospects
Latavius Murray, RB, New Orleans Saints ($5,300)
With Alvin Kamara officially ruled out with ankle and knee injuries, Latavius Murray steps into the fruitful role of the Saints' lead back. DFS gamers should certainly temper expectations against a stout Chicago Bears front that ranks fourth in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, but Murray still projects to be our best point-per-dollar value at his position.
The Bears will also be without Akiem Hicks, who landed on Injured Reserve with an elbow injury. The Saints' offensive line is creating the fifth-most adjusted line yards, per Football Outsiders, so they should be able to generate space for Murray in this contest.
Hunter Henry, TE, Los Angeles Chargers ($5,700)
Hunter Henry was supposed to be limited heading into last Sunday night. Instead, he handed in his first 100-yard and multi-touchdown game of his career. His 1.15 Reception NEP per target for the season now ranks first among all tight ends with at least 10 targets.
So great to see Hunter Henry back out there, completely balling out.
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) October 14, 2019
Because he dominated in a late matchup, FanDuel didn't set an appropriate salary for him for Week 7, making Henry the best value at his position, per our numbers.
Jonathan Taylor Smith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice Jonathan Taylor Smith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jtsmittyyy. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.