Daily Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Primer: Week 7
You might have dig a little deeper than usual to find value at the wide receiver position this week. The reliable Kansas City Chiefs offense played on Thursday night, while other big-name receivers such as Odell Beckham, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are on byes. Injuries may also remove other go-to options such as Amari Cooper and Davante Adams from the slate.
In this preview, I'll break down the wide receivers into three categories based on FanDuel's prices: players to build around, value plays, and players to avoid.
Players to build around are more expensive, but their ceilings are high enough that you should consider prioritizing them in your lineup. Value plays are cheaper options who usually come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the expensive stars. Players to avoid are guys you might normally consider at their price tag but have tough matchups and are unlikely to live up to their usual expectations.
All references to betting totals and spreads are from the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Receivers to Build Around
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams ($7,800) -- The Los Angeles Rams are coming off a brutal offensive performance against the San Francisco 49ers, during which Cooper Kupp caught just 4 passes for 17 yards. Fortunately, the Atlanta Falcons are the ideal defense to face to get Kupp and the Rams back on track. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Falcons' defense is allowing a 76.6 completion percentage and 9.4 yards per target to slot receiver, where Kupp primarily lines up.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts ($7,600) -- In five games against the Houston Texans since the start of the 2017 season, T.Y. Hilton is averaging 117.6 yards per game. That stretch includes a game with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback in 2017, when Hilton went off for 175 yards and 2 touchdowns. Further hurting the Texans' chances of slowing down Hilton is the health of starting cornerbacks Johnathan Joseph and Bradley Roby. Both Joseph and Roby are banged up and will either be inactive or less than 100 percent.
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings ($7,100) -- As the Minnesota Vikings have become a more run-heavy team this season, Adam Thielen's fantasy value has dropped off. However, he's still ranked among the top-13 receivers three times in six weeks. Thielen could see an increase in opportunities against the Detroit Lions this week due to their coverage scheme. According to Sports Info Solutions, Detroit plays the highest rate of man coverage in the league. And when Kirk Cousins has thrown into man coverage, he's targeted Theilen at a 45.2 percent rate. That number might be slightly elevated due to a relatively small sample size, but Thielen also saw increased usage versus man in 2018. Last season, Thielen's target share was 30 percent versus man, compared to 23 percent versus zone.
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys ($6,300) -- With Amari Cooper likely sitting out due to injury, Michael Gallup steps up as the Dallas Cowboys' number-one receiver against a helpless Philadelphia Eagles secondary. The Eagles have allowed an opposing receiver to post a top-12 fantasy score in five of six weeks so far this season, including three top-three finishes. The only team unable to take advantage of the Eagles' secondary was the New York Jets, who were starting since-released quarterback Luke Falk. Here's the full list:
|Week 1||Terry McLaurin, WSH||12th|
|Week 2||Julio Jones, ATL||3rd|
|Week 3||Marvin Jones, DET||9th|
|Week 4||Davante Adams, GB||2nd|
|Week 5||Vyncint Smith, NYJ||36th|
|Week 6||Stefon Diggs, MIN||1st|
John Brown, Buffalo Bills ($5,900) -- John Brown was a surprise addition to the Buffalo Bills' injury report on Wednesday, so be sure to check his status before inserting him into your lineup this week. If he plays, however, the Miami Dolphins represent the most favorable matchup he'll see all year. The Dolphins have struggled to defend the deep ball, allowing a 52.4 percent completion rate on passes 20 or more yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions. Brown has been the Bills' primary deep threat, with 23 percent of his targets coming at least 20 yards downfield. Miami has also allowed an NFL-worst six touchdowns of 20 or more yards.
Larry FItzgerald, Arizona Cardinals ($5,600) -- After posting 21.3 points in Week 1, Larry Fitzgerald has been limited to modest fantasy outputs and has been held to single digits in three consecutive games. However, the usage rate remains high as he seen at least seven targets in five of six games. This week, he draws a dreadful New York Giants pass defense which has allowed 20 or more yards on 14 percent of opponents' pass plays, the second worst rate in the league. Fitzgerald has been Arizona's big-play weapon, with a team-high six receptions of 20 or more yards. At this price, he's a safe cash-game play, but also has a high enough ceiling to warrant tournament consideration.
Trey Quinn, Washington Redskins ($4,900) -- Despite seeing just six fewer targets than leading receiver Terry McLaurin, Trey Quinn hasn't made a fantasy impact this season. Operating in the slot, he hasn't been able to produce big plays -- he's averaging 6.8 yards per reception -- and he's seen just three red-zone targets. That said, the Washington Redskins could be forced to give Quinn a bigger role this week. According to Sports Info Solutions, the San Francisco 49ers' defense has allowed a completion rate of just 36.1 percent to receivers lined up wide but have been more vulnerable against slot receivers.
|WR Position||Comp Pct||Yds/Att||TD-Int|
With a modest ceiling, Quinn might be a better cash game play than in tournaments. But as one of the few players with a clearly defined role in the offense and a price tag this cheap, he's worth consideration.
Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers ($4,500) -- Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison were all listed as non-participants in Green Bay Packers practice on Thursday, so there's a chance Allen Lazard could earn his first career start on Sunday. The Oakland Raiders have allowed a top-10 fantasy receiver in three of their five games this season, which gives Lazard a high ceiling if he's Aaron Rodgers' go-to target. Lazard's value diminishes greatly if any of the Packers top three wideouts are active, but if he's forced into a starting role, he looks like a must-play at this price tag against a weak Raiders defense.
Receivers to Avoid
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers ($7,500) -- After a red-hot start to the season, Keenan Allen has been held to seven or fewer fantasy points in three straight games, and he draws a tough matchup against the Tennessee Titans this week. The highest scoring receiver against the Titans has not ranked higher than 14th overall in a given week (Mohamed Sanu in Week 4) and has ranked outside the top 20 in four of six games. Obviously, we know Allen has the talent to break that trend, but given the Chargers' recent inability to get him the ball, it's tough to trust him this week.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks ($6,500) -- Tyler Lockett has been consistently productive this season, posting double-digit fantasy points in five of six games. However, he draws a tough matchup this week against Baltimore Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey. According to Pro Football Reference, Humphrey has allowed just 22.1 fantasy points this year, the fewest among players who have faced at least 25 targets in coverage.
Ryan McCrystal is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan McCrystal also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username cfbfilmroom. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.