4 NFL FanDuel Tournament Pivots for Week 6
If you've played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field -- and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership -- can help separate you from your opponents.
The purpose of this article will be to identify some players who will be the chalk at each position and how you can pivot off of them with high-upside options who could go overlooked.
Let's take a look at pivot options for Week 6 of the 2019 NFL season.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
FanDuel Price: $7,500
This game has the third-lowest over/under on the slate at 44.0 points and with four other games at 48 points or higher, we should see no one flocking to this game. In an overall sense, this might be a game to 'avoid,' but that doesn't mean you need to avoid all players. The Eagles come in with an implied team total set at 20.50 -- which also isn't too high -- but that implies three touchdowns from them. I'm here to make the case that Carson Wentz can account for two, if not all three, of their implied touchdowns this week.
The Vikings' defense isn't as vaunted as it was a few seasons ago, which is why they've allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three of their five games this season. On the other hand, Minnesota is only allowing 15.4 FanDuel points per game to running back, a total which is the fourth-best in the league. The Eagles are three-point road underdogs and face a very tough run defense. So what does this all give us? A team who shouldn't be able to run the ball, will be playing from behind, and a game which should be lower-owned.
This should set up Wentz to be forced into passing the ball, which he has no problem doing. He has multiple passing touchdowns in three of his five games this season and can reach towards that against this Vikings defense. It also helps that nearly every quarterback around him is in a better game script, which should keep his ownership low.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
FanDuel Price: $6,700
Yes, that might be a hot take, but there is plenty of reason to believe it can happen, so let's dig in. Henry and the Tennessee Titans are on the road to take on the Broncos in a game with a horribly low 41.0-point over/under, the lowest on the slate. That is not very encouraging for 'overall' fantasy production back and forth, but what is encouraging is the specific matchup for Henry. The Broncos are allowing a whopping 25.6 FanDuel points per game to running backs this season, which is the fifth-worst in the league. The Broncos are also in the top-five when it comes to the fewest points per game allowed to quarterbacks this season.
Let's take a step back here and look at what we have. The Titans are on the road versus a tough pass defense and have their own questions/concerns at quarterback. They have a running back -- Henry -- who is averaging 19.6 carries per game, the third-most in the league, and now faces a bottom-five run defense. We saw what Leonard Fournette did to the Broncos' defense a few weeks ago, and now it's Henry's time.
Miles Boykin, Baltimore Ravens
FanDuel Price: $4,600
Cue rookie Miles Boykin, who has yet to truly make an impact on the Ravens and their offense. In total through four games, he has 8 targets, 5 receptions, 48 yards, and 2 touchdowns. That really isn't encouraging by any means. The touchdowns are nice, but he has a minor role in the offense -- until potentially this week with Brown out. Boykin is sitting with a snap count at 31.9% -- the fourth-highest on the team for wide receivers -- which is just behind Brown. Willie Snead and Seth Roberts have taken the lead when it comes to snap count, but Boykin is tied with Snead in touchdowns and only two receptions behind Roberts.
If we look at the matchup versus the Cincinnati Bengals this week, we see that they are allowing 24.2 FanDuel points per game to opposing receivers, which is in the top-10 of the league. But, at just $100 more than the minimum salary, you are getting a lower-owned option, who could be seeing a new role within the offense. The Ravens' receivers are somewhat all over the place when it comes to their production relative to their role, but one thing is clear -- Boykin has a chance to be on the field a whole lot more this week if Brown is out.
Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints
FanDuel Price: $5,600
The tight end position is a bit of a wasteland, but if you find the right tournament option, it can change your week.
Outside of the top options at tight end, you likely won't find too many players with high-ownership since their production is highly variable and can make things a bit of a dart throw. With that said, Jared Cook could be in for another consistent game. From a top-down view, there is a clear lower-priced tight end option everyone (the fantasy community) has been talking about, which is Gerald Everett, who is just $400 more than Cook. Over his last two games, Everett has 19 targets, 180 yards, and a touchdown. Not bad for a player in the crowded Los Angeles Rams offense.
So the elite tight ends are there and the mid-tier option should be Everett, which leads us to Cook, who is just below $6K. In his last two weeks, Cook's numbers aren't close to Everett, as Cook has 7 receptions, 61 yards, and 1 touchdown. But this isn't a piece to tell you the best options, this is to find a pivot -- the lower-owned player -- away from who should be the chalkier options. Cook sets up to be that pivot, holding a consistent role in his offense with a 64.2% snap percentage.