Fantasy Football: Gdula's Game Notes for Week 6
With five weeks of data -- and unfortunately, injuries -- now, we have a lot to go off of when examining Week 6's NFL matchups.
Of course, numberFire has no shortage of tools -- lineup generators, fantasy projections, and more -- to help you round out your rosters, but some extra prep never hurt anyone. So, here are some notes to know about each and every game on FanDuel's main slate for Week 6.
Cincinnati at Baltimore
New Orleans at Jacksonville
Washington at Miami
Seattle at Cleveland
Houston at Kansas City
Philadelphia at Minnesota
Atlanta at Arizona
San Francisco at LA Rams
Dallas at NY Jets
Tennessee at Denver
Cincinnati at Baltimore
|Over/Under | Spread||47.5||-12.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||47%||58%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||47%||53%|
|Implied Team Total||17.75||29.75|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||27||30|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||30||29|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||17||31|
- The Cincinnati Bengals enter this one as massive underdogs in a game that features two teams with a slow offensive pace. Play volume will be their biggest concern. The Baltimore Ravens' defense isn't what it used to be and actually ranks 29th in numberFire's adjusted pass defense metric, but if Baltimore can control the clock, Cincinnati players will likely bust while playing with a fourth-string left tackle.
Cincinnati Offense Notes
- Tyler Boyd ($6,400) is priced down despite a 14-target game. With John Ross sidelined for weeks, Boyd should see an elevated target floor in this game of catch-up. The touchdown equity isn't high, but the volume is all but guaranteed. Boyd ranks fourth in targets per game among wide receivers and has scored just once on 405 yards. The general rule of thumb is a touchdown per 100 yards. Scoring regression should be coming. It just may not be this week.
- Alongside Boyd, we have a value option in Auden Tate ($5,400). Tate just played every offensive snap last week and saw three red zone targets.
- Everyone seemed to like Tyler Eifert ($4,500) last week, but he played only 18 snaps and saw 4 targets for 14 yards. He's a touchdown-only option with that type of role, and Cincinnati may not score.
- Joe Mixon ($6,400) is priced fairly here despite the status as an underdog. Mixon has seen at least 60% of the Bengals' offensive snaps in consecutive weeks and has 6 targets in that span. Baltimore grades out as a bottom-five rush defense in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs, yet Mixon's offensive line status puts him in shaky territory.
Baltimore Offense Notes
- Mark Ingram ($7,500) should see plenty of work as a huge home favorite. He has had at least 12 carries in every game so far and just played a season-high snap rate of 65.4%. He's overpriced given his limited skillset, but unless the Bengals get out ahead early, Ingram should be locked into nearly 20 touches with red zone work as well.
- Lamar Jackson ($8,200) has just one blemish this week, and it's the pace of this game, which could reduce his ceiling. Jackson faces a bottom-three adjusted pass defense here. To help, he has run 11.8 times per game over the past four, securing at least 46 rushing yards in each and averaging 76.0 rushing yards per game.
- Marquise Brown ($5,800), a game-time decision, remains relatively inexpensive for his slate-changing upside. He has caught just 1 of 6 deep targets over the past three weeks. The Bengals rank 26th in adjusted yards per attempt allowed on passes traveling at least 16 yards downfield this season. Brown's low floor, however, can ruin lineups. In a game with few expected plays, we should probably treat Brown as a tournament-only play.
- The Bengals rank 31st in FanDuel points per target allowed to tight ends and are 20th in Target Success Rate allowed to the position. Mark Andrews ($6,300), assuming he's healthy, grades out as a top-five tight end in my simulations.
Core Plays: Lamar Jackson, Tyler Boyd, Mark Andrews
Secondary Plays: Mark Ingram
Tournament Plays: Marquise Brown, Auden Tate, Joe Mixon
New Orleans at Jacksonville
|Over/Under | Spread||44.0||-1.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||55%||13%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||11%||16%|
|Implied Team Total||21.5||22.5|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||29||26|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||14||16|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||13||30|
- This game could disappoint, not that expectations are sky high, given the 44.0-point over/under. The public is backing the over, but the money says this is a stay-away. The pace is slow for both teams, the pass defenses rank in the middle of the pack, and the quarterbacks aren't pushing the ball downfield much at all this season. Of 37 qualified passers, Teddy Bridgewater ($7,300) ranks 37th in deep-attempt rate, and Gardner Minshew ($6,900) ranks 23rd.
New Orleans Offense Notes
- Michael Thomas ($8,200) is coming off a spike week but now hits the road against a solid overall pass defense, though Jalen Ramsey doesn't seem close to a return. Thomas leads the league in target market share (35.5%) and is second in targets per game (11.0). He's a high floor play worth his salary if you're spending up for a receiver-heavy lineup, which I don't advise on FanDuel unless we're talking tournaments.
- Alvin Kamara ($7,900) is trending toward playing. He grades out well again in my simulations, primarily because of his involvement in the offense (21.2 opportunities per game). The Jacksonville Jaguars rank 27th in Rushing Success Rate and 22nd in Target Success Rate allowed to backs.
- The only other relevant piece of this offense is Jared Cook ($5,600). For their struggles, the Jaguars have put the clamps on tight ends overall, ranking top-eight in FanDuel points per target and Target Success Rate allowed to the position.
Jacksonville Offense Notes
- The New Orleans Saints' defense ranks third in pressure rate. The Jags are 25th offensively, so we could see Minshew get the ball out of his hands quickly this week to compensate for that. Minshew's fantasy floor has been high all season, and getting the Saints on the road should help. As far as his DFS usability, he's a piece I'd look to for game stacks in case this game goes over, but he isn't cheap enough to build into cash-game lineups.
- My preferred way to access this offense is through Leonard Fournette ($7,300). Fournette grades out as a top-three point-per-dollar play when using the 75th-percentile projections. He has generated 25.5 and 21.7 FanDuel points in the past two games and has played at least 83.5% of snaps in all five contests.
- It should be a Dede Westbrook ($5,400) week for a few reasons. The pressure could force quick passes to Westbrook, whose average target depth is only 5.9 yards downfield. More importantly, Marshon Lattimore should be on D.J. Chark ($6,500). The Saints rank 31st in slot yards per snap allowed this season. Chark always has big-play ability, but Westbrook is a high-floor core play for me this week.
Core Plays: Leonard Fournette, Dede Westbrook
Secondary Plays: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas
Tournament Plays: D.J. Chark, Gardner Minshew
Washington at Miami
|Over/Under | Spread||41.0||+3.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||48%||50%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog||52%||45%|
|Implied Team Total||22.25||18.75|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||8||3|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||28||32|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||16||20|
- We can say what we want about the two teams involved, but they're both top-eight in adjusted pace and bottom-five in adjusted pass defense. This game could be ugly, yet it also could provide plenty of points for cheap DFS assets. It's pretty stackable, all things considered.
Washington Offense Notes
- It's hard to know what the Washington offense will look like under Bill Callahan, though we know he wants his team to run the ball. The Miami Dolphins rank 29th in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs and 20th against the rush overall. It's possible that Washington can control the clock here.
- Case Keenum ($6,500) is set to start if he is healthy enough. He'd be facing the NFL's worst pass defense (by far) and could be in consideration if spending down at quarterback. Keenum ranks 12th in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back among 37 qualified quarterbacks.
- Here is Keenum's target distribution this season: 25 for Chris Thompson ($5,400), 24 for Terry McLaurin ($6,400), 23 for Trey Quinn ($5,100), 20 for Paul Richardson ($4,700), and 17 for Vernon Davis ($4,800).
- McLaurin will always be the preferred option, as he ranks fourth among receivers in high-leverage targets (combined deep and red zone targets) per game.
- Jeremy Sprinkle ($4,500) didn't crack 50% of snaps and still ran only 31.4% of the routes last week.
- If the team does lean on the run, I still can't justify Adrian Peterson ($5,300), who lacks any legitimate upside (his 75th-percentile outcome is just 14.8 FanDuel points). You'd need to hit the rest of your lineup for that to matter, and in cash games, the floor is too low.
Miami Offense Notes
- Josh Rosen ($6,400) is going to be a tournament play for me despite his low 75th-percentile projection of just 17.4 FanDuel points. The Washington defense ranks 30th in Passing Success Rate allowed and in pressure rate. Rosen has a clear stacking candidate in Preston Williams ($5,600). Williams has been targeted on 23.8% of Rosen's attempts this season (catching 8 of 20). DeVante Parker ($5,400) has 14 targets from Rosen but has caught only half. When banking on the few scenarios where this game does get out of hand because of the bad defenses, Rosen stacks could pay off at such low salaries.
Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Terry McLaurin, Adrian Peterson (cash games only)
Tournament Plays: Preston Williams, Josh Rosen, Case Keenum, DeVante Parker, Kenyan Drake ($5,600), Chris Thompson
Seattle at Cleveland
|Over/Under | Spread||47.0||+1.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||52%||6%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog||43%||8%|
|Implied Team Total||24.25||22.75|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||15||16|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||23||13|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||6||22|
- Everyone is on the Seattle Seahawks to cover against the Cleveland Browns, but as far as the fantasy friendliness, this game really could go either way. The total is high (47.0), the paces are middling, the defenses are okay but not great. Seattle will be on extra rest, having played Thursday in Week 5. Cleveland is on a short week after playing Monday night.
Seattle Offense Notes
- Seattle ranks 28th in pass rate over expectation -- pass rate adjusted for game context -- and Russell Wilson ($8,000) is always a hit-or-miss DFS play despite how good he is (he leads the NFL in Passing NEP per drop back). His single-game point totals -- 16.64, 24.42, 41.34, 14.30, 29.92 -- aren't exactly all-or-nothing, but among six quarterbacks priced at or above $8,000, only Dak Prescott hit 20.0 FanDuel points less frequently in my simulations. Cleveland is mid-level in pressure rate defensively, yet Wilson has bottom-eight protection. He could be in for a letdown if the pressure or game script get out of hand.
- Chris Carson ($7,200) carved out a season-high 83.8% snap rate last week despite Rashaad Penny's ($5,400) return. In his three games with at least a 70% snap rate, Carson has averaged 18.8 FanDuel points per game. Cleveland ranks 21st in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs.
- Tyler Lockett ($6,300) has just once surpassed 13.0 FanDuel points and now faces the league's best slot defense in terms of yards per snap allowed. However, they did let up 56 yards and a score in Week 3 and 131 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 4 against Cooper Kupp and the Baltimore Ravens receivers, respectively. D.K. Metcalf ($5,800) is still relegated to boom-or-bust territory, given his low target totals (5.2 per game, ranking 65th among all receivers). However, he has the high-leverage looks (3.6 deep and red zone targets per game, ranking 10th among all wide receivers) we need for a breakout. Having caught none of seven red zone targets, Metcalf could blow up sooner than later.
- Will Dissly ($6,000) has returned double-digit FanDuel points in four straight games while averaging 6.0 targets per game, and the Browns rank 22nd in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends.
Cleveland Offense Notes
- Baker Mayfield ($7,400) has been dreadful, ranking 34th among 37 qualified passers in Passing NEP per drop back. Seattle ranks 10th in pressure rate, which could lead to Mayfield disappointing yet again. However, game stacks are viable in this spot against the NFL's 23rd-ranked adjusted pass defense.
- Odell Beckham ($7,600) has averaged 8.6 targets per game (16th among all receivers) but is 5th in target market share (27.4%). If volume increases in a back-and-forth game, Beckham could erupt. He has 15 deep targets, 3rd-most.
- The safer play is Jarvis Landry ($6,700), who has target totals of 7, 7, 9, 10, and 6 but has sub-70 air yards in 3 of 5 games. Seattle ranks 24th in yards per snap allowed to the slot this season.
- Nick Chubb ($7,800) has played at least 60% of snaps every game this season and has played 97.2%, 63.8%, and 83.7% of snaps the past three weeks. Seattle does grade out 6th in adjusted rush defense but 20th in Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs, implying consistent gains are there to be had. Chubb also has at least four targets in four of five games. He's script proof.
Core Plays: Nick Chubb, Tyler Lockett, Will Dissly
Secondary Plays: Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry
Tournament Plays: D.K. Metcalf, Baker Mayfield
Houston at Kansas City
|Over/Under | Spread||54.5||-5.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||84%||59%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||76%||53%|
|Implied Team Total||24.75||29.75|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||17||2|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||12||5|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||29||27|
- The game of the week is imminently stackable in a lot of different ways, and not many players are actually that expensive. Both pass defenses rank top-12, but that's about the only blemish here.
Houston Offense Notes
- Deshaun Watson ($8,400) is fresh off an eruption game and should see high ownership as a result. Watson ranks 2nd in the NFL in per-drop back Passing NEP and is 5th in deep-pass attempt rate (Kansas City is 15th against the deep pass).
- With Will Fuller ($6,600) priced affordably and coming off his monstrous outing, he should carry ownership, which is a scary proposition for tournaments. Fuller ranks fourth on the full season in air yards and has the sixth-most deep targets in the NFL. DeAndre Hopkins ($8,400) won't be an off-the-radar play by any means, but he has not scored since a two-touchdown game in Week 1. Problematically, he has just 24.2% of the team's air yards since Week 2, compared to 36.0% for Fuller. Hopkins also has just 2 of the team's 19 red zone targets this season and 0 of the 15 since Week 2. He's a tournament priority.
- Carlos Hyde ($6,000) has out-snapped Duke Johnson ($5,300) in three of five games. Even last week when the Texans blew up offensively, Hyde secured 12.0 FanDuel points, the most from either all season.
- Tight ends Darren Fells ($5,200) and Jordan Akins ($4,600) have scored 3 times on a combined 19 targets the past two games. The Chiefs rank 11th in Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends.
Kansas City Offense Notes
- Patrick Mahomes ($9,200) has totaled one passing touchdown over his past two games, and his Passing NEP marks don't exactly indicate that he fared well in either of those contests despite throwing for 300-plus yards in each (something he has done in every game so far). Houston ranks sixth in pressure rate defensively, but Mahomes has had solid offensive line play this season (Kansas City ranks ninth offensively).
- Tyreek Hill ($7,400) has a chance to play this week and would elevate the expectations for the entire offense, while slotting in as a firm play himself despite the fact that the Texans rank eighth in defense against the deep pass.
- Travis Kelce ($7,500) is up against the NFL's fourth-ranked tight end defense by Target Success Rate allowed to tight ends, but his usage has been so good relative to other tight ends that it doesn't matter much. Kelce has surpassed 100 air yards in 3 of his past 4 games and ranks first at the position (481). Zach Ertz (367) and Mark Andrews (363) are the only others above 300, and Kelce has a massive lead on them. Kelce also has just one touchdown despite 439 receiving yards and 7 red zone targets (of which he caught only 1).
- If Hill is back and Sammy Watkins ($6,800) is healthy, then Demarcus Robinson ($6,700), Mecole Hardman ($6,400), and Byron Pringle ($4,500) will be left with scraps -- valuable scraps but scraps nonetheless. If Watkins does miss the game, then Robinson stands out as the most likely beneficiary. In this offense, any one of these wideouts can post a huge day, though predicting it with Hill and Watkins in the mix will be tricky. We should wait on news out of Kansas City. To update, there's a "serious" chance that Hill plays. Watkins is out.
- Damien Williams ($6,600) returned to play the majority of snaps last week (55.6%), leaving just 22.2% for LeSean McCoy ($6,400) and Darrel Williams ($6,100). The trio is all overpriced to a degree, but a $6,600 tag for a back playing more than half the snaps on what could be the week's highest-scoring offense isn't too bad for Damien.
Core Plays: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Deshaun Watson, Tyreek Hill, Will Fuller
Secondary Plays: DeAndre Hopkins, Damien Williams
Tournament Plays: Demarcus Robinson, Jordan Akins
Philadelphia at Minnesota
|Over/Under | Spread||44.0||-3.0|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||81%||9%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||65%||6%|
|Implied Team Total||20.5||23.5|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||28||21|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||22||8|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||14||2|
- Two slow offenses square up with a middling over/under in a game where 81% of the bets are on the over but only 65% of the money is, a game that is interesting for finding game stack angles but ultimately looks underwhelming. Full disclosure: I may be too low on it.
Philadelphia Offense Notes
- Carson Wentz ($7,500) ranks 13th in Passing NEP per drop back among 37 qualified passers but is a less appealing 23rd when removing sacks and looking at pure passing efficiency. He is just 9 of 26 on deep attempts and ranks 26th in deep-ball rate. The Minnesota Vikings rank eighth in adjusted pass defense this season and fifth in pressure rate. Wentz looks overpriced.
- Wentz fixates on Alshon Jeffery ($6,400) and Zach Ertz ($6,600), giving them 7.7 and 9.0 targets per game, respectively. The Vikings rank 16th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers despite their strong overall pass defense. They're 12th against tight ends, but Ertz does rank third in target share among all tight ends. Ertz is a borderline core play for me given the state of tight end. Jeffery's lack of yardage upside makes him mostly unappealing unless stacking this game.
- The backs -- Jordan Howard ($6,200) and Miles Sanders ($5,700) -- each played 42.6% of snaps last week, and the split has been pretty even all season with each back getting 53 carries. Sanders leads with 15 targets (Howard still has 9 of his own), and should be the better play in expected negative script.
Minnesota Offense Notes
- Dalvin Cook ($8,200) has averaged 22.5 FanDuel points per game and hasn't returned fewer than 16.0 in any game. The Philadelphia Eagles do rank 1st in Rushing Success Rate allowed to running backs but are 28th in Target Success Rate, which bodes well for Cook, who has target totals of 2, 3, 5, 8, and 6 to start the season. He's a firm core play regardless of matchup.
- Adam Thielen ($7,200) came to life last week, turning 8 targets into 130 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he has yet to see more than 8 targets in a game while playing for the NFL's most run-heavy team in the NFL when adjusting for game context. Despite the pushover narrative about their secondary, the Eagles rank 12th in Target Success Rate allowed to receivers. I'm less concerned about the matchup and more unwilling to pay up for Thielen when the floor can bottom out, but he's still a secondary play.
- Stefon Diggs ($5,800) has maxed out at 12.3 FanDuel points and has averaged just 7.1 per game on target totals of 2, 7, 3, 7, and 4 with corresponding air yards marks of 29, 161, 13, 73, and 53. The usage is bad, sure, yet the price is too low for the talent.
- It's worth noting that Kyle Rudolph ($4,500) has played at least 83.9% of snaps in every game and has averaged a 70.8% route rate the past four weeks.
Core Plays: Dalvin Cook, Zach Ertz, Stefon Diggs
Secondary Plays: Adam Thielen
Tournament Plays: Carson Wentz, Alshon Jeffery, Miles Sanders, Kyle Rudolph, Kirk Cousins ($7,000)
Atlanta at Arizona
|Over/Under | Spread||51.0||+2.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||74%||20%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog||73%||18%|
|Implied Team Total||26.75||24.25|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||24||4|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||31||25|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||10||28|
- This game features two bad pass defenses and capable offenses. With all eyes on Houston and Kansas City, this Atlanta Falcons/Arizona Cardinals game stands out as a differentiation point. It won't be overlooked -- especially looking at how heavily the over is being bet -- but it's nearly just as appealing.
Atlanta Offense Notes
- Matt Ryan's ($8,100) seven interceptions are making headlines. Even with that, he's been good this season. He ranks 10th in Passing NEP per drop back in the NFL. Now, he gets a bottom-eight pass defense in a pace-up spot. He isn't priced down, but spending up for him in tournaments will be a main strategy for me this week to pivot away from Watson and others.
- Julio Jones ($8,500) is due for a bounce-back after single-digit fantasy performances the past two weeks. His air yards data is pretty much unchanged from the first three weeks. He has 14 deep targets, 4th-most in football, but has caught only 5 of them. Arizona is 24th against the deep pass this season.
- Austin Hooper ($6,400) and Calvin Ridley ($5,500) each grade out well in my simulations in terms of 75th-percentile value. Ridley has averaged 117.5 air yards, excluding a Week 3 disappearing act. Hooper is 3rd among all tight ends in targets per game (8.4). Mohamed Sanu ($6,000) is fine for game stacks but is overpriced for averaging just 53.2 air yards per game.
- Devonta Freeman ($6,600) and Ito Smith ($5,000) are in a 60/40 split. Arizona ranks 29th in Target Success Rate allowed to backs and is 28th in adjusted rush defense. The matchup is fine but the workloads aren't.
Arizona Offense Notes
- Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600) remains too cheap and is an easily justifiable cash-game play this week against the NFL's 32nd-ranked wide receiver defense. His yardage totals have been down (36, 47, 58) and he has just 6.7 targets per game in that span, but the matchup and price are just too good.
- Even if Christian Kirk ($5,600) returns (which is unlikely), KeeSean Johnson ($4,600) could be tournament viable in this shootout as well after playing 94.8% of snaps last week and getting 7 targets. Kirk would be a core play in his own right, as he is ninth in targets per game among wide receivers.
- David Johnson ($6,900) still is shy of $7,000 after generating 17.1 or more FanDuel points in all 4 games with at least 70% of snaps played. Atlanta is 10th in Target Success Rate allowed to backs and 13th on the ground, but Johnson's workload is more valuable than his price tag suggests. If Johnson can't play, Chase Edmonds ($5,200) would be a very strong value play.
- Kyler Murray ($7,700) has attempted 22 rushes for 185 yards over the past three games and re-kindled the deep pass last week, going 6 of 7 for 142 yards. The Falcons rank 29th in adjusted yards per attempt allowed on passes traveling at least 16 yards downfield.
Core Plays: David Johnson, Kyler Murray, Larry Fitzgerald, Matt Ryan, Austin Hooper, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley
Secondary Plays: Devonta Freeman, Chase Edmonds (if David Johnson is out)
Tournament Plays: KeeSean Johnson, Mohamed Sanu
San Francisco at LA Rams
|Matchup||San Francisco||LA Rams|
|Over/Under | Spread||50.5||-3.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||73%||48%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||75%||48%|
|Implied Team Total||23.5||27.0|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||18||1|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||1||21|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||11||12|
- A high-totaled game between divisional foes is a little scary, but more than 75% of the money and bets are on the over, so maybe I should just follow the money despite my concerns.
San Francisco Offense Notes
- The 49ers rank 31st in pass rate over expectation this season, meaning that only one team (Minnesota) runs more often when adjusting for game context. That has played part in Jimmy Garoppolo ($7,200) failing to hit 300 passing yards in any of his four games despite ranking sixth in Passing NEP per drop back. He should be able to move the ball against the Los Angeles Rams.
- George Kittle ($6,500) ranks 2nd among tight ends in target share (25.9%) but is 7th in targets per game (7.3) and has just 2 of 13 deep targets. His average target depth (7.5) is still higher than it was last year (7.1), but the percentage of his targets that are 16-plus yards downfield is down from 24.7% to 15.4%. He also has concerns about playing the full game, so he should be downgraded.
- Matt Breida ($5,900) is probably too cheap after a breakout island game on Monday night. He did play just 34.2% of snaps and has yet to surpass 44.1% so far this season. Tevin Coleman ($5,000) also played 34.2% of snaps, and Raheem Mostert ($5,700) played 31.6%. I don't think I'll be chasing any back in this committee unless I'm game stacking this contest.
- No receiver has higher than a 15.0% target share.
LA Rams Offense Notes
- The 49ers boast the NFL's best adjusted pass defense through Week 5, and they're eighth in pressure rate. That should get us a little concerned about Jared Goff ($7,600), who has been pressured on a league-high 101 drop backs, according to ProFootballFocus. Goff ranks 16th among 26 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating when pressured. Even accounting for seven drops, he ranks 20th in adjusted completion rate in that sample.
- It's possible Brandin Cooks ($6,500) misses due to his concussion, which would dampen the team's offensive ceiling without their primary field stretcher against a team that already puts the clamps down on vertical passing. Still, Cooper Kupp ($7,800) and his league-high 63 targets are a great cash game play, as San Francisco ranks 23rd in yards per snap allowed to the slot, though spending up at receiver isn't the right recipe on FanDuel.
- Robert Woods ($7,100) is due for touchdown regression after recording 355 yards but no touchdowns. I'm just down on the offense here outside of game stacks.
- Gerald Everett ($6,000) is pretty much priced out for me after seeing 19 targets the past two weeks. He has played 87.9%, 57.1%, and 80.6% of snaps the past three games.
- Todd Gurley ($7,100) has a better matchup than the passing game does and just played 93.1% of snaps. He has yet to see fewer than 15 opportunities and is getting more and more involved in the offense, including 16 targets the past two games. Update: With Gurley out, Malcolm Brown ($4,800) sets up as the punt play of the week, as he is expected to be the featured back for the Rams' offense.
Core Plays: Malcolm Brown, Cooper Kupp
Secondary Plays: Jared Goff
Tournament Plays: George Kittle, Robert Woods, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman, Gerald Everett
Dallas at NY Jets
|Over/Under | Spread||43.0||+7.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Underdog||60%||17%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Underdog||53%||22%|
|Implied Team Total||25.25||17.75|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||11||12|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||20||18|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||23||4|
- With Sam Darnold ($6,700) back, this game could wind up being closer than something other than an unmitigated blowout, and that is an encouraging thought. Both teams play at a top-12 pace and offer below-average pass defenses.
Dallas Offense Notes
- Dak Prescott ($8,000) is expected to have left tackle Tyron Smith back in action, which will help give him a clean pocket often against a below-average pass rush (21st in pressure rate). Prescott ranks third in Passing NEP per drop back and is back in play as a recency-bias-plagued tournament option.
- Amari Cooper ($8,100) is coming off a 226-yard game and faces a team that ranks 18th in adjusted pass defense. The only issue I have with him is the price. He needs to go off again to be worth it. Michael Gallup ($6,100) will have a much easier time paying off his price tag. In his return last week, he drew 14 targets for 113 yards and a touchdown in a comeback effort.
- Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500) has yet to hit 20 FanDuel points but has returned at least 12.8 in every game while seeing at least 15 opportunities in each, as well. The New York Jets rank fourth in both adjusted rushing defense and Rushing Success Rate allowed to backs but are dealing with injuries. Either way, the workload makes Elliott a secondary play at worst.
NY Jets Offense Notes
- Darnold ($6,700) has a tiny 2019 sample that would grade him 34th in per-drop back efficiency among 38 qualified passers, but that came against the NFL's 10th-ranked pass defense (the Buffalo Bills). Dallas ranks 20th, same as their pressure rate rank. Overall, the Jets' passers have been pressured at the highest rate in football. Darnold has tournament appeal in case this becomes a back-and-forth game. We know where he's throwing the ball to help with stacking.
- Darnold's target distribution in 2019 has been: 17 for Jamison Crowder ($5,400), 9 for Le'Veon Bell ($6,800), 7 for Robby Anderson ($5,300), 4 for Ryan Griffin ($4,000), 3 for Quincy Enunwa, and 1 for Josh Bellamy ($4,500). Crowder, Anderson, and Bell are all immediately intriguing DFS plays at their depressed prices.
- Bell has at least 22 opportunities in every game and scored his only touchdown in Week 1 with Darnold.
- Chris Herndon ($5,400) seems unlikely to play in Week 6 due to a hamstring injury.
Core Plays: Le'Veon Bell
Secondary Plays: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder, Michael Gallup
Tournament Plays: Dak Prescott
Tennessee at Denver
|Over/Under | Spread||39.0||-2.5|
|Percentage of Bets on: Over | Favorite||39%||24%|
|Percentage of Money on: Over | Favorite||11%||25%|
|Implied Team Total||18.25||20.75|
|Adj. Seconds/Play Rank||25||22|
|Adj. Pass Defense Rank||9||17|
|Adj. Rush Defense Rank||7||24|
- This game features the lowest implied total, and despite that, only 11% of the money is backing the over. Woof. This game features two slow offenses that lack players with elite market shares.
Tennessee Offense Notes
- Neutral game script could lead to a big game for Derrick Henry ($6,700), but with his price so close to Damien Williams', David Johnson's, and Le'Veon Bell's, it's a tough sell. Henry has averaged 26.8 opportunities per game, and Denver ranks 24th in adjusted rush defense. Touchdown equity is low, but he shouldn't be scripted out.
- Marcus Mariota ($6,500) ranks 23rd in per-drop back passing efficiency, which accounts for sacks taken, among 37 qualified passers. Removing sacks and looking just at his pass attempts, he ranks 13th. Denver is just 22nd in pressure rate, so he could set up for a sneaky game.
- Problematically, no Tennessee Titan has even a 20% target share. Delanie Walker ($5,200) leads at 19.1%, which equates to 5.0 targets per game. He has been phased out of the offense the past two games, as well. Over the past two, Corey Davis ($5,100) has a team-high 22.7% target share (10 targets).
Denver Offense Notes
- Royce Freeman ($5,200) has led the backfield in snap rate two straight weeks and in three of five games this season over Phillip Lindsay ($6,700). Freeman is a cheap punt play running back, but that's generally a bad philosophy on FanDuel unless you're merely looking for a different roster construction for tournaments.
- Courtland Sutton ($5,900) has led the team in snap rate in four straight games and grades out as a top-five receiver play when looking at his 75th-percentile outcome. Sutton has carved out a 23.9% target share to lead the team (7.8 per game) while seeing at least 7 targets in every game.
- Emmanuel Sanders ($5,500) has fallen a tad behind with 6.8 targets per game and is coming off a single target last week. His usage has become more sporadic than Sutton's. In a game with anticipated low volume, Sanders is off my list after riding him in cash games for a few weeks.
Core Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Derrick Henry, Courtland Sutton
Tournament Plays: Royce Freeman, Marcus Mariota, Phillip Lindsay