College Football Market Share Report: Week 8
Since many of the 2018 law changes that marked the return of college football daily fantasy, it has been quickly growing. After all, more individuals watched the 2020 National Championship Game than any other non-NFL sporting event.
With so many eyeballs on the games, and some monster statistics put up by the elite players in the sport, it is natural for many to gravitate to playing daily fantasy instead of traditional betting. FanDuel offers college football contests each weekend, which can include Thursday, Friday, and Saturday main slates -- depending on game volume.
College football is a unique challenge for DFS, as a lot of necessary information is not easily found. Often, injury news is reported through the schools themselves and newspaper beat reporters. It can also be particularly difficult to find accurate information on which players are on the field, who has the best usage, and where inefficiencies in the salary cap model may reside.
The latter point is the premise for this piece, which in addition to numberFire's betting guides and daily fantasy helpers, is designed to help you find out which college football players are on the field and seeing work.
With that in mind, let's examine the market shares for players on Saturday's main slate on FanDuel.
Note: Players with fewer than 10 pass attempts, 10 rushing attempts, and 5 targets in the previous week will not be featured but may still be viable in daily fantasy formats. For players returning from off weeks, previous reports will contain their most recent sample. All stats are from PFF.com.
|Tyler Van Dyke||MIA||47||22.0||8.38||1.0||25.3|
The top star in college football already might be Oklahoma's new freshman quarterback Caleb Williams ($12,000). Williams has accounted for eight Sooners touchdowns since coming off the bench against Texas, and it's come on fairly low volume in the passing game, but he does already have 13 rushing attempts and 154 yards rushing in that two-game sample. Williams' floor this weekend is elite taking on the lowly Kansas Jayhawks as 38.5-point favorites.
This whole report is about volume, but it can come with a cost. Matt Corral ($11,800) added 14 carries (and 210 yards!) to 40 passing attempts last week against Tennessee, but he now is fairly banged up heading into this weekend. If he cannot play, it would put a damper on an otherwise outstanding matchup with Louisiana State that has a 76.5-point total at the moment. Backup Luke Altmyer ($7,500) has just four pass attempts all season.
After an early-season injury to Phil Jurkovic, it is nice to also see Dennis Grosel ($6,900) growing comfortable in a Boston College offense with concentrated market shares. Grosel, Pat Garwo III ($7,600), and Zay Flowers ($5,900) do most of the heavy lifting for the Eagles, and they make a terrific stack squaring off with Louisville's 115th-ranked overall defense this weekend.
|Brian Robinson Jr.||ALA||19||19.2||50.2%||5||6.5%|
|Pat Garwo III||BC||12||14.2||41.7%||1||1.3%|
|Henry Parrish Jr.||MISS||10||10.7||26.1%||6||9.3%|
Talent won out in Baton Rouge. After seeing just 36 total carries in his first four games of the season, Tyrion Davis-Price ($8,500) saw 36 carries in Week 7 alone for LSU. Davis-Price is averaging 5.57 yards per carry for the entire year, and it was only a matter of time until his role expanded. They now see a Mississippi defense that is just ranked 109th against the rush.
Like a Camaro in snow, it may be best to leave Breece Hall ($11,000) and Jaylen Warren ($9,000) in the garage this weekend. It's not their workload, as especially after Warren saw three targets against Texas, they arguably have the two best workloads in all of college football. Their matchup is just poor. Iowa State is 3rd nationally in total defense, and Oklahoma State is 19th in that same category. This isn't your typical Big 12 shootout -- it carries just a 46.5-point total. Better days will be ahead for these bellcows.
I don't think Travis Dye ($8,700) had his salary increase enough for what his role truly is. Dye handled 16 of 19 running back carries for Oregon last week against Cal, and that will continue now with CJ Verdell out for the season with a knee injury. Dye is a legitimate workhorse back now, and while Anthony Brown ($9,600) may still steal some goal-line work, Dye gets to tee off on a UCLA defense that is ranked just 68th nationally.
|Stephon Robinson Jr.||NW||12||41.4%||7.3||25.1%||34.4%|
|Billy Kemp IV||UVA||11||25.6%||9.6||20.5%||16.3%|
|Velus Jones Jr.||TENN||8||28.6%||5.3||20.2%||27.7%|
|John Metchie III||ALA||8||29.6%||7.6||24.5%||21.7%|
|Kwamie Lassiter II||KU||5||20.8%||5.2||22.5%||23.7%|
After Miami (FL) lost Cam'Ron Harris last week to an injury against North Carolina, they went to an air raid offense that almost pulled out the win. Freshman Tyler Van Dyke ($7,200) flung it 49 times, and he had a pair of favorite targets. Key'Shawn Smith ($5,500) saw 16 targets, and Charleston Rambo ($6,700) added 9 targets of his own. North Carolina State is tough against the pass (ranked 34th nationally), but the Canes are an interesting value stack in a game with a modest 52.5-point total.
As tough as it may be, Ty Fryfogle ($6,400) makes plenty of sense in the fledgling Indiana offense. Both Michael Penix Jr. and Jack Tuttle ($6,000) are averaging fewer than six yards per attempt this season, but they are getting the ball in Fryfogle's direction plenty to make him a candidate to run back Ohio State stacks. Fryfogle is averaging 10.3 targets per game, and he has seen at least 8 targets in every game. While he has yet to break 15 FanDuel points, he also has only scored less than 7 in one game. He is a high-floor value option that's ceiling could potentially be unlocked by a new quarterback.
Speaking of high-floor one-offs, Justyn Ross ($7,000) returned for Clemson last week and picked up right where he left off. Ross saw 10 targets, and he now has at least 9 targets in each of his last three games. The days of Clemson being giant conference favorites are over, as the Tigers are actually 3.5-point underdogs to Pitt entering this weekend. DJ Uiagalelei ($7,300) is at an extremely low salary as well, but Ross is a first-round receiving talent seeing great usage, and that makes him far easier to trust than his struggling quarterback.