College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 11/8/19
After a few quiet Fridays with just one game on the slate, we're finally back to filling out a full lineup this week with two games on the docket. We're also lucky enough to have some quality teams in action on a Friday for the first time in awhile, which could lead to some high-scoring fantasy lineups.
In this preview, I'll break down the Friday slate into three categories based on FanDuel's prices: players to build around, value plays, and players to avoid.
Players to build around are more expensive, but their ceiling is high enough that you should consider prioritizing them in your lineup. Value plays are cheaper options who usually come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the expensive stars. Players to avoid are guys you might normally consider at their price tag, but who have a tough matchup this week and are unlikely to live up to their usual expectations.
All references to betting totals and spreads are from the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Players to Build Around
QB Dillon Gabriel, UCF ($10,200) -- Dillon Gabriel has been remarkably consistent this season, scoring over 20 fantasy points in six of nine games. Tulsa's defense should allow for another strong output, as the Golden Hurricanes are allowing 22.3 fantasy points per game to opposing starting quarterbacks.
QB Jacob Eason, Washington ($9,000) -- Jacob Eason's fantasy performance has been inconsistent this season -- he's averaging 17.98 points per game but also has three games in which he's been held to single digits. This is an ideal matchup for Eason, however, as Oregon State's defense has allowed 25 or more fantasy points to an opposing quarterback in five of seven games against FBS schools.
WR Gabriel Davis, UCF ($9,200) -- Gabriel Davis is averaging 20.3 fantasy points per game this season, and that's despite coming off consecutive outings in which he's been held in the single digits. Given Davis' 32.8 percent target share, it's unlikely his production will be limited for a third straight game. Tulsa's secondary has been burned by the more talented receivers it has faced, allowing three players to reach at least 20 fantasy points against them this season, including Oklahoma State's Tylan Wallace and Southern Methodist's James Proche. Davis certainly belongs in a category with those two and should have a big game on Friday.
RB Salvon Ahmed, Washington ($8,900) -- Five different running backs have posted at least 20 fantasy points against the Oregon State defense this season, including two games over 30 points. If this game plays out as expected -- Washington is favored by 10 points -- Salvon Ahmed is likely to see a significant workload, especially in the second half. However, Ahmed's value could take a hit if goal-line back Richard Newton returns from injury this week. Through Washington's first six games, Newton led the team with 10 carries, including five touchdowns, inside the 10-yard line, according to Sports Info Solutions. In Newton's absence, Ahmed has scored four touchdowns inside the 10-yard line -- those are valuable opportunities he likely won't see once Newton returns.
QB Zach Smith, Tulsa ($7,400) -- Tulsa is a 17-point underdog, but that doesn't mean you should avoid Zach Smith, the cheapest starting quarterback on the slate. Central Florida's defense is nothing to fear, as it is allowing 20.4 fantasy points per game to opposing starting quarterbacks. Among those who have found success against UCF are Connecticut's Steven Krajewski (24.5 points) and East Carolina's Holton Ahlers (26.2 points).
WR Marlon Williams, UCF ($7,200) -- If you're looking for a tournament play with low ownership but high upside, Marlon Williams appears to be a strong candidate on this slate. Williams is the third option in UCF's passing game with a modest target share of 11.5 percent, according to Sports Info Solutions. However, he makes up for it with his big-play ability. 20.6 percent of WIlliams' targets have resulted in plays of 20 or more yards.
RB Corey Taylor, Tulsa ($6,600) -- Playing the backup running back for an underdog is counterintuitive, but Tulsa's strategy as a heavy underdog has been to lean heavily on the run game in an effort to control the clock. So while Shamari Brooks is entrenched as the starter, Corey Taylor still saw 13 carries against Oklahoma State, 12 against Cincinnati and 13 against Memphis. As the backup, Taylor obviously has a low floor, but if you need a cheaper option at running back, Taylor has the potential to provide some value.
WR Trevon Bradford, Oregon State ($6,000) -- Beavers slot receiver Trevon Bradford saw 88 targets in 2018 but has missed the majority of this season due to a foot injury. He made his debut last week against Arizona and will appear in three of Oregon State's final four games in order to preserve this season as a redshirt year. Make sure Bradford isn't sitting this game out before starting him, but we can probably assume Oregon State will want him on the field for this tough matchup with Washington. Kolby Taylor, who has filled in for Bradford in the slow, is expected to be a game-time decision on Saturday. Taylor's uncertainty probably increases the chances Bradford suits up for this one. Bradford caught just one pass in his season debut but saw three targets, all from his usual position in the slot.
Players to Avoid
RB Bentavious Thompson, UCF ($8,400) -- Bentavious Thompson is the third-most expensive running back on the slate, despite being the fourth option in UCF's backfield. Thompson's price is due to his 13 fantasy points per game, but he's done almost all of his damage in garbage time. According to Sports Info Solutions, 36 of his 58 attempts (62 percent) have come while UCF holds a lead of 21 points or more. Additionally, only five of Thompson's carries have come while the score is within seven points. With UCF favored by 17, Thompson will likely see some action, but it's impossible to justify spending this kind of money on a player who is dependent on garbage time.
Ryan McCrystal is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan McCrystal also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username cfbfilmroom. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.