College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 10/4/19
Week 6's Friday night action gives us a two-game slate, highlighted by a showdown between UCF and Cincinnati that could ultimately decide the winner of the AAC East Division and have significant implications on the Group of Five's New Year's Six representative.
It's a great night for college football, and it should also be a fun night to fill out fantasy lineups, as both matchups feature totals over 60 points.
If you're new to college football DFS, here's a rundown of the rules from FanDuel. As for the basics, your roster consists of a quarterback slot, two running back slots, three wide receiver slots (which also includes tight ends) and one super flex slot. In the flex, you can insert one player from any position, including quarterbacks.
In this preview, I'll break down the Friday slate into three categories: players to build around, value plays, and players to avoid.
Players to build around are more expensive, but their ceiling is high enough that you should consider prioritizing them in your lineup. Value plays are cheaper options who usually come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the expensive stars. Players to avoid are guys you might normally consider at their price tag, but who have a tough matchup this week and are unlikely to live up to their usual expectations.
All references to betting totals and spreads are from the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Players to Build Around
QB Josh Love, San Jose State ($9,700) vs. New Mexico
Since the start of 2018, New Mexico has allowed 20 or more fantasy points to 9 of 14 FBS starting quarterbacks it has faced, including all three games this season. Josh Love's value on this slate also benefits from the potential for this game between two pitiful defenses to turn into a shootout. San Jose State ranks 115th in total defense, while New Mexico ranks 129th.
WR Gabriel Davis, UCF ($9,900) vs. Cincinnati
Gabriel Davis leads UCF with a 27.5 percent target share. Perhaps more importantly, he leads the team with a 45.5 percent target share in the red zone, according to Sports Info Solutions. Based on that usage rate, Davis' team-high eight touchdowns are no fluke. Davis is also valuable due to his usage as a downfield threat. Per Sports Info Solutions, 32 percent of Davis' targeted routes have been corner, post and go routes, on which he's averaging 23.6 yards per target.
WR Tre Walker, San Jose State ($9,200) vs. New Mexico
This matchup with New Mexico might be the most favorable of Tre Walker's season. The Lobos have allowed a receiver to rack up at least 20 fantasy points in each of their three games against FBS opponents this year. New Mexico also ranks dead last in passing defense, allowing 397.5 yards per game. Since returning from injury in Week 4, Walker leads San Jose State with a 35.2 percent target share, according to Sports Info Solutions.
QB Tevaka Salanoa-Tuioti, New Mexico ($8,000) vs. San Jose State
As previously mentioned, this matchup features two of the worst defenses in the country, which could create a shootout. Even though New Mexico has a reputation as a perennial doormat, the offense isn't the issue. The Lobos enter this game ranked 37th in the nation, averaging 452 yards per game. Tevaka Salanoa-Tuioti showed off his potential two weeks ago, hanging 31.1 fantasy points on a weak New Mexico State defense. He's the cheapest starting quarterback on this slate, but a case could be made he has a higher ceiling than those playing in the Cincinnati-UCF matchup, which figures to be a lower-scoring affair.
WR Alec Pierce, Cincinnati ($7,700) vs. UCF
Sophomore receiver Alec Pierce, who saw just one target in 2018, has burst onto the scene after a slow start. Over the last two games, Pierce leads the Bearcats with 11 targets (20 percent target share) and is averaging 11.8 yards per target, according to Sports Info Solutions. Pierce draws a tough matchup this week -- he'll likely be matched up with Nevelle Clarke, who was a first-team all-conference selection last year -- but his recent usage rate and reasonable price tag makes him worth considering.
RB DeJon Packer, San Jose State ($7,600) vs. New Mexico
San Jose State is a pass-heavy offense, but DeJon Packer is the lead back of choice. While Packer has received just 56 percent of handoffs to running backs this season, when the score is within a touchdown that rate jumps up to 68.6 percent, according to Sports Info Solutions. With San Jose State favored by 6.5 points, that should create a decent workload for Packer on Friday.
WR Isaiah Hamilton, San Jose State ($6,300) vs. New Mexico
New Mexico is allowing 12.4 yards per target to slot receivers this season, the worst rate in the country according to Sports Info Solutions. Hamilton is San Jose State's primary slot target with 9 receptions for 134 yards from the slot this season.
Players to Avoid
RB Michael Warren, Cincinnati ($9,700) vs. UCF
Michael Warren has been a boom-or-bust fantasy option so far this season, scoring over 25 points versus UCLA and Miami (OH), while being held to 5 or fewer points against Ohio State and Marshall. UCF's defense is allowing just 3.48 yards per attempt, which ranks 41st in the nation -- UCLA (79th) and Miami (107th) didn't provide nearly the same test. It's always reasonable to throw a player of Warren's talent into a lineup or two, but it's probably best not to build around him in this matchup.
WR Marlon Williams, UCF ($6,100) vs. Cincinnati
Slot receiver Marlon Williams is among the cheapest starters on this slate, so there's not much risk in playing him. However, he draws a brutal matchup against Cincinnati's defense. The Bearcats are allowing just 4.97 yards per target to receivers lined up in the slot this season, the 13th best rate among FBS programs, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Ryan McCrystal is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan McCrystal also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username cfbfilmroom. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.