College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 9/28/19 Main Slate
We now have four weeks of data to operate from, which makes college football DFS all that better going into Week 5. This week's main Saturday slate requires a lot of attention with 16 games of action-packed goodness.
As for the basics, your roster consists of a quarterback slot, two running back slots, three wide receiver slots (which also includes tight ends) and one super flex slot. In the flex, you can insert one player from any position, including quarterbacks.
Here, our goal is to help you field a roster full of fantasy goodness, and in true numberFire fashion, we'll use our in-house projections as well as betting totals and advanced statistics to tackle as many slates as possible in the lead-up to the College Football Playoff. Today, we are looking at Saturday's main slate which locks at 3:30 p.m. EST.
Let's breakdown which players are in great spots as well as identify some players with cheap price tags that will allow you to roster the high dollar players.
Tua Tagovailoa ($10,600) - With all the talk around Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow, Tagovailoa seems to be flying under the radar with a super start of his own. Through four matchups, the Alabama star has the nation's third-highest passing efficiency rating (225.3) while he has completed 77.7% of his passes on 14.6 adjusted yards per attempt. He has 17 touchdowns to 0 interceptions, and that includes back-to-back games with five throwing scores. He checks in with 32.6 FanDuel points per game coming into a matchup against Ole Miss with a 61.0-point total and a 37.5-point spread in the Tide's favor. Their 49.25 implied total is second on the slate and would make for their second-highest scoring game of the year. This is a week to pay all the way up for Tua.
Dillon Gabriel, UCF ($9,100) - The only team on the slate with a higher total than the Tide? The UCF Knights. Hosting Connecticut, Gabriel and his offense are expected to put up 54.25 points with a 44.0-point spread in their favor. The quarterback is fresh off just an OK game, but he's a mere game removed from a giant 347-yard, 4-touchdown game against Stanford. Now, he's back at home against one of the worst defenses in the country. The Huskies are 86th in Bill Connelly's defensive SP+ as a result of surrendering 21, 31 and 38 points to non-major Wagner, Illinois and Indiana. Gabriel has a virtually unlimited ceiling in this matchup.
Brian Lewerke, Michigan State ($8,300) - In the event you want to be contrarian, pay down at quarterback and pay up elsewhere, Lewerke is a solid pivot to the higher-priced studs. His Michigan State Spartans are two-touchdown favorites over Indiana in East Lansing, and he was really good last time out. After throwing for three scores last week, the senior has seven touchdowns in the Spartans' three wins, all of which have seen Michigan State tally 28 or more points. That 29-point implied total suggests that the Spartans will enjoy more offensive success in this spot. A 25-FanDuel-point day is not out of question for Lewerke.
Travis Etienne, Clemson ($9,500) - Etienne had an underwhelming fantasy day last week against Charlotte, having rushed for only 61 yards on 11 carries. But still, the Heisman candidate had a touchdown, making it four for the season on 7.5 yards per carry. In other words, we shouldn't be sleeping on the junior back. He's heavily involved in the offense and draws a better matchup this Saturday. The North Carolina Tar Heels have defended the rush well, but Clemson's expected to put up 43.5 points, behind only UCF and 'Bama. Etienne will benefit from the positive game script as he looks for his second 100-yard game of the season.
Richard Newton, Washington ($8,300) - As we learned -- unfortunately too late -- last week, typical lead back Salvon Ahmed is sidelined with a leg injury. That means Washington will go forward with a split between Newton and Sean McGrew. Newton does not have a large edge in carries or yards, but he does have five scores to McGrew's one. Plus, he's managed 16 yards and a score through the passing game. The redshirt freshman will get at least half of the work on the ground, and with the Huskies implied at 35.75 points, we could see Newton reach paydirt multiple times against the USC.
Kenneth Walker II, Wake Forest ($7,000) - Like Newton, Walker isn't a true workhorse back. In fact, he's fourth on Wake Forest in carries behind two other backs and quarterback Jamie Newman. Yet, Walker has the most yards (310) and two touchdowns to his credit. And according to PFF's Cam Mellor, the electric freshman is third in yards after contact per carry. If they're doing things right in Winston-Salem, Walker will get more opportunities from this week on. For this week, Wake will face off with Boston College, whose rush defense is third-worst on the slate in adjusted rushing yards allowed per attempt. The Demon Deacons' 37.75 total is worth targeting in a more competitive ACC clash.
Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State ($9,200) - I guess Wallace has fallen off. His price has declined by $500 from a week ago -- and for what? Just cause the guy didn't have a touchdown for the first time all year? Wallace still had 5 catches for 83 yards, and in the previous three, he had 15 catches for 390 yards and 6 touchdowns. The monster receiver ranks fourth in the NCAA in receiving yards, ninth with 23.7 yards per catch and second with 284 yards after the catch. Kansas State owns SP+'s 20th-best defense; it's no slouch. We can still expect Oklahoma State to fulfill their 32-point implied total. Gabriel Davis ($9,100) is the high-priced guy to consider for a UCF quarterback-receiver stack.
Justyn Ross, Clemson ($8,200) - Expected back this week, Ross missed the Tigers' last game with a hip flexor injury. Prior to that, Ross was productive in his second season, but he just hasn't gotten into the end zone. He has 1 touchdown on 15 catches, but last year he had 9 scores on 46 catches -- one every 5.1 grabs. Ross is bound to get back to that form, especially in this matchup. While North Carolina has surprised many, the Tigers are 27-point favorites, the Heels are 76th as a defensive unit, per SP+, and UNC has allowed 20 completions and 1 passing touchdown per game to date.
Jaylen Waddle, Alabama ($6,800) - It is always a bit of a guessing game with who -- other than the high-priced Jerry Jeudy -- will go off in the 'Bama receiving corps. Henry Ruggs III ($9,400) is in consideration, as well, but Waddle is a sneaky-good play at a low cost. While the sophomore ranks fourth on the team in receptions (11), he averages 17.9 yards per catch and is the only Alabama wideout with zero touchdowns on double-digit catches. He's due for a long touchdown and provides a cheap-but-high-upside stacking option alongside Tagovailoa.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BrettOswalt. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.