NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 6/3/21: Can the Blazers and Lakers Get Wins at Home?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Denver Nuggets (+172) at Portland Trail Blazers (-205)
Spread: Portland Trail Blazers -4.5
numberFire's algorithm sees this game as nearly a pure toss-up as far as the outright winner goes. It gives the Denver Nuggets a 50.5% chance to close out the series over the Blazers.
Because of the moneyline odds (+172), though, that makes Denver to win a three-star recommendation, per our model at numberFire. The +172 moneyline odds come with an expected return of 39.5%.
Naturally, then, Denver +4.5 is also getting attention from our model. The expected point total in this game is 112.3 to 112.2 in favor of the Nuggets.
The public betting data from oddsFire is showing a split on the spread with Denver getting 51% of the bets and money to cover.
There is a differential with the moneyline, though. The public has put 57% of their bets on the Blazers to force a Game 7, and that's tied to 66% of the money. This goes against the grain with numberFire's model.
Notably, the Blazers have won just three of eight games against the Nuggets this season but covered the spread in five of them. Also, four of the seven non-overtime games between them did hit the over, which is where 87% of the money is on over/under bets.
Denver +4.5 and the over are ultimately where I'm landing, and I'd rather leave the outright winner alone while banking on a close, high-scoring game.
Phoenix Suns (+114) at Los Angeles Lakers (-134)
Spread: Los Angeles Lakers -2.0
We've now got 19 games for the Lakers without Davis but with LeBron James, and they've got a disappointing 11-8 record with a net rating of 2.7, according to PBPStats, in them. The Lakers also list Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as questionable, and KCP generally logs heavy minutes. It's not ideal for the Lakers with their backs against the wall.
Quite amazingly, our model is offering no picks in this game, be it on the moneyline, the spread, or the total. It sees the lines as efficient as is.
Neither side of the spread or over/under is rating out more than 52.0% likely to occur, per our algorithm.
The most likely outcome across the board is the Lakers to win outright: 56.1%. That's not high enough at their moneyline odds, which imply a 57.3% win probability.
The betting trends at oddsFire are fairly split, as well. It's basically a coin flip on the spread (51% of the money is on the Phoenix Suns to cover, and 52% of the bets are on the Lakers to cover). The Suns are getting 58% of the money to win outright.
As always, the betting public is on the over. An even 66% split is coming in on the bets and money for the over. Notably, though, these two teams have gone over in just two of eight matchups (with one push) and have averaged 6.5 points shy of the over/under in their games.
The playoff series has averaged 199.2 total points.
The bet that's most appealing to me is the Suns to cover, which gets us a winning wager on a close loss or an outright win. I'm also seeing the data point to the under once again for this matchup but will be getting the majority of my bets in on the Nuggets/Blazers game.