3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 2/25/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Tyrese Haliburton Under 15.5 Points (-112)
Tyrese Haliburton is on fire lately. He's poured in 23, 23 and 16 points over his last three, and he's played at least 32 minutes in each of those outings. His red-hot tear has pushed his points prop to 15.5 points for today, and that's a bit high, per our model, as we project him for just 13.0 points.
Prior to the past three games, the rookie had gone for 16-plus points only once in his previous six contests. While filling it up over the last three, he took advantage of some fast-paced game environments as each of his opponents in that span -- the Brooklyn Nets, Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls -- rank in the top eight in pace. Tonight's clash with the New York Knicks, who sit dead last in pace, won't be quite as fun. The Knicks also rank third in defensive rating and are permitting the second-fewest points per game to backcourts (44.5).
We back the under on this 15.5-point line.
Patrick Beverley Over 7.5 Points (-116)
Patrick Beverley and the Los Angeles Clippers (27th in pace) get a pace bump tonight versus the Memphis Grizzlies (13th). Memphis isn't an easy matchup, but they're not a tough one, either. The Grizz check in 16th in defensive rating and allow the 16th-most points per game to point guards (24.7).
Beverley is averaging 8.3 points per game for the season, and he's posted at least eight points in three of his past five, although the two exceptions came in five-point efforts in his last two showings.
Our model sees good value on Beverley's points prop as we forecast him to score 9.9 points.
Michael Porter Jr. Under 16.5 Points (-122)
Looking at the numbers, the under on the points prop for Michael Porter Jr. is really easy to get behind.
For starters, Porter has netted 17-plus points only two times in his past 13 games, including once in his last six. He's averaging a mere 11.1 points per game in that 13-game run. He's also seen a volatile minutes load in that time, logging fewer than 25 minutes five times but also getting as many as 39 minutes, which came in his last game.
A matchup with the Washington Wizards, the fastest-paced team in the league, certainly helps Porter's cause. The Wiz have been playing better lately, though, especially on defense. For the season, they are 24th in defensive efficiency, but they're a more respectable 18th in their last 10 games. Washington held Porter to 14 points back on February 17th despite Porter shooting a fairly solid 5-for-11 from the field in that game and getting nearly 31 minutes.
We project Porter for 14.6 points tonight.