NBA Betting Guide: Sunday 1/17/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Philadelphia 76ers at Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunder +2.5: 4-Star Rating out of 5
Thunder Moneyline (+122): 4-Star Rating out of 5

The Philadelphia 76ers struggled without Joel Embiid last night. They made a late push in the fourth quarter to end up losing by just two, but it wasn't enough to overcome a second half in which they were trailing by double digits for most of the time. They'll have to play without Embiid once again tonight as they take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on no rest.

Since Embiid started playing for the 76ers back in the 2016-17 season, the team has had a tough time without him, particularly when playing on no rest. The Sixers have gone 9-20 straight up (SU) and 12-16-1 against the spread (ATS) on no rest without him. They're just 5-16 SU and 7-13-1 ATS when those have been away games.

The Thunder are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games against the Sixers, outscoring Philly by an average of 7.3 points in those contests. Despite being third in the Eastern Conference, the Sixers are just 2-4 on the road this season, continuing their road woes from last year, when they went just 12-26 as the away team.

Our model likes the Thunder to pull off the upset and win by 3.4 points. We give them a 62.5% chance of winning and a 67.7% chance of covering the 2.5-point spread. We mark both bets as four-star plays.

Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Clippers

Clippers Moneyline (-270): 3-Star Rating out of 5

With the support of the second-highest offensive rating and an incendiary 60.7% true shooting percentage, the Los Angeles Clippers have come out of the gates hot to go 9-4, good for second place in the Western Conference. Tonight they'll get a chance to join the Los Angeles Lakers as the only teams with double-digit wins, and our model indicates they're going to do so.

The Clippers will play host to the 8-4 Indiana Pacers, who are coming off two strong away wins against the Portland Trail Blazers and Golden State Warriors. The Pacers have been a balanced team this year, ranking in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. To highlight this balance, three Pacers are averaging at least 20.0 points per game.

The Clippers have won two straight in the series, ending a five-win Pacers streak. They're in a good spot tonight to extend that to three games. As mentioned, the Pacers are coming off of two away wins. They've rarely had three away wins in a row in their recent history. The Pacers have lost five straight and 12 of their past 13 away games after consecutive away wins.

numberFire's model has the Clippers winning by 9.0 points this evening. We give them a 79.6% chance of picking up the victory. With an expected return of $109.10 on a $100 wager, we mark the moneyline bet as a three-star play.