NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 9/18/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Anthony Davis, Over 40.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-111)
Davis has scored 28 or more points in 5 of 10 games in the postseason. He's also grabbed nine or more rebounds in 9 of 10 outings, and he had 3 or more assists in 8 of 10 games. That's a baseline of 40 combined points, rebounds and assists (PRA) if he hits around his averages and he showed he can that and some in the first two rounds. AD averaged 25.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 4.0 assists (41.8 PRA) in the semifinals against Houston after posting 29.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 4.2 assists (43.4 PRA) in the first round versus Portland.
The key for Davis is playing at least 36 minutes. When he's played 36-plus minutes in the postseason, he's averaged 30.5 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game (46.3 PRA). numberFire's model predicts Davis to register 28.4 points, 10.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists in 38 minutes.
Jamal Murray, Over 24.5 Points (-110)
At this point, Jamal Murray is expected to play 40 or more minutes per game, and he did that five times in the seven-game series last round, recording 33 and 38 minutes in the other two games. He averaged 22.6 points per game in the semifinals against the Clippers, a drop-off from his 31.6 points per game in the first round versus the Jazz. Murray has now played 40 minutes in 10 of 14 postseason games for the Nuggets, and he averaged 40.1 minutes versus the Clippers.
When Murray has played 40 minutes, he's averaged 32.7 points per game in the postseason, compared to 13 points per game when he hasn't hit 40 minutes. That's an insane difference, and he's been streaky in the postseason, too, including three straight performances of 50, 42, and 50 points in the first round.
Murray averaged 18.5 points versus the Lakers in the regular season, scoring 6, 14, 22, and 32 points in those meetings. Murray netted 22 and 32 points in 36 and 44 minutes, compared to 6 and 14 points in 25 and 32 minutes.
It's all about how much he plays, because Murray is a productive and polished scorer who can blow up when given big minutes. He averaged 21.6 field goal attempts in the first round and 18.6 in the second round. If he maintains that pace, he should cash the over in Game 1 as long as we avoid a blowout.