3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 8/6/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Anthony Davis, Over 42.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-118)
If you haven't been riding the hot streak big men have been having versus the Houston Rockets small-ball lineup, you're really missing out. First it was Kristaps Porzingis. Next it was Giannis Antetokounmpo. Tuesday it was Jusuf Nurkic. So we're 3-0 on the restart with big-men overs versus Houston, so let's make it 4-0.
Anthony Davis has been going beast mode through three games, including a huge game of 34 points, eight rebounds, and four assists and another with 42 points, 12 rebounds, and four assists.
Davis dealt with foul trouble in the Lakers loss Wednesday to the Thunder, finishing with nine points, eight rebounds, and five assists in 29 minutes. He should be on a revenge tour on primetime versus the Rockets after his letdown performance. On back-to-backs this season, Davis averages 21.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists over five games, but they won four of them by double digits, so he surpassed 30 minutes in only two of those five games.
In his 93 career back-to-backs, Davis has averaged 23.9 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 1.7 assists, and if the Rockets' past three games are any indication, Davis is probably going to have a monster double-double if he plays 30 minutes. In one meeting with the Rockets this season, he put on a show with 32 points, 13 rebounds, and three assists. numberFire's model predicts Davis to be the second-highest point scorer and seventh-highest rebounder with 26.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 3.0 assists versus Houston in 34 minutes.
Kawhi Leonard, Over 26.5 Points (-115)
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have really been a top tandem in this restart, and they have been able to succeed scoring while taking a hit to their usage rates. These two get the youthful superstar matchup with Luka Doncic and Porzingis, which should lead to some entertaining basketball. In his two games versus Dallas this season, Leonard scored 28 and 36 points despite going just 2-for-11 from three, and since his last game versus the Mavs, he's made multiple three-pointers in 16-of-20 games.
Leonard has scored 24, 27, and 28 in the seeding games and hasn't shot above 50% from the field yet. Versus the Mavs this season, he has averaged 46% from the field with those nine missed threes. The Mavericks are averaging 126 points per game through three bubble contests, the second-most in the league, and the Clippers are 13th with 114. Dallas is also allowing the second-most points per game (126.7), so Leonard has a great chance to hit the over here in what should be a fast-paced clash.
numberFire's model pegs Leonard with 28.5 points in 33 minutes.
T.J. Warren, Over 25.5 Points (-111)
T.J. Warren is on the scoring streak of a lifetime -- no seriously, his 32, 34, and 53 points are a career-best over three games. He's had the green light for the Indiana Pacers as Domantas Sabonis is out, and they ease Victor Oladipo and Malcolm Brogdon back into game form.
The Pacers are in for an exciting matchup with Devin Booker and the red-hot Phoenix Suns. Both teams rank near the top in points per game since entering the bubble. Phoenix is tied eighth in the bubble with 119.3 points per game, and Indiana is right in front of them at seventh (119.7). This could be a shootout, and between Booker and Warren, it's hard to bet against either not to go for 30.
In the only meeting between Warren and the Suns, Warren scored 25 points in 30 minutes on 11-for-16 shooting. He didn't attempt one three-pointer in that meeting, and in his last three games alone, Warren's hit 14-of-23 triples (60.8%). Through three games, the Suns have allowed four players to score 20 points, one to score 30, and one to score 40. When Warren had played 40-plus minutes in 2019-20, he's averaged 33.8 points per game. Oddly enough, that meeting with Phoenix was the first one of his career, capping off Warren playing against every team.
The Suns have allowed the sixth-most field goal attempts per game (89.7) and the ninth-most free-throw attempts per game (29.0) through three games in Orlando. There are a lot of positives here for Warren, who should stay hot.