3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 11/18/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
James Harden, Over 39.5 Points
James Harden has scored 39 or more points in 8 of his past 11 games for the Houston Rockets and is at an NBA-best 39.5 points per game -- which would third-most all-time for a single season. He has the highest player usage rating (40.3) and is first in made threes (63), three-pointers attempted (192), field goals made (140), and field goals attempts (336). Harden is also second in player efficiency rating (31.10). The 2018 MVP is having one of the greatest scoring seasons of all-time, and even when Russell Westbrook or Clint Capela are on the floor, he will score.
Harden's projections are 33.7 points, 10.9 field goals made, and 4.3 made threes -- which results in him hitting the under. Like I stated last week, Harden is a video game, and no algorithm can predict his points. His totals were hovering around 42.5 and 44.5 the past week, and he scored 47, 44, and 49 his those contests. I like Harden scoring 40 at home against the Portland Trail Blazers.
Lauri Markkanen, Under 24.5 Points + Rebounds
Lauri Markkanen's under 24.5 points and rebounds finally went over for the first time since his massive 35-point, 17-rebound performance in the season-opener. Markkanen combined for 26 on Saturday night against the Brooklyn Nets without Kyrie Irving. Markkanen had 16 points and 10 rebounds, his second double-double of the year. The Bulls are hosting the Milwaukee Bucks for their second matchup in the past week. The Bucks beat the Bulls 124-115 in Milwaukee, and Markkanen had 11 points and 8 rebounds on 2/9 shooting in that contest. A good portion of his points have come from the free throw line -- 41 percent to be exact -- over the past four games, as he's gone 22 of 23 (95.6%) over that period.
Our model projects Markkanen at 13.6 points and 7.2 rebounds tonight, which results in him hitting the under. Once again, I am riding with Markkanen to hit the under until he puts multiple double-double games or a breakout performance together. That said, I don't think it's coming against the Bucks.
Ricky Rubio, Over 12.5 Rebounds + Assists
Ricky Rubio has been a large reason why the Phoenix Suns are one of the NBA's best teams right now. Rubio is third in the NBA with 8.7 assists per game, leads the team in rebounds with 6.3, and is fourth on the team in points with 13.6. Over his first 10 games with the Suns, Rubio has had 11-plus rebounds and assists in all but one game. If we're counting how many times he's had 13 or more, that number is 8 of 10 games. In November (6 games), he's averaged 8.7 assists and 6.0 rebounds. Rubio is only averaging 13.0 shots per game over his last three, which means he's getting his teammates involved.
Our model projects Rubio to have 6.7 assists and 4.1 rebounds, which would result in him hitting the under. That line would be tied for Rubio's lowest total of the season. The Suns welcome the Boston Celtics to Phoenix in what will be Boston's first back-to-back of the season after losing to the Sacramento Kings 100-99 last night. I like Rubio feeding his teammates and being active on the boards tonight -- leading to him hitting the over.
Vaughn Dalzell is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice Vaughn Dalzell also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username vdalzell. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.