MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 10/20/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Houston +1.5 (-184): 2 Stars out of 5
The Astros were the best offensive team in the regular season this year (5.33 runs per game), and they showed it last night winning by a final score of 9-2. Houston is averaging 6.63 runs per game in the playoffs, so their offense has been even more potent in October.
This pitching matchup features Framber Valdez against Chris Sale. Valdez had a great season for Houston finishing the year with a 3.14 ERA in 134.2 innings compared to a 3.16 ERA in 42.2 innings in an injury-shortened season for Sale. Sale also had the regular-season advantage in xERA (3.49 compared to 3.78 for Framber).
However, Sale is only averaging 4.74 innings per start, and the Red Sox bullpen has struggled this postseason with an ERA of 4.50. Houston has had a much better bullpen ERA this postseason at 3.74, so if this game comes down to the relievers, the Astros certainly have the advantage.
Our model gives Houston a 69.92% chance to cover the spread of +1.5, and we like this as a two-star bet for Wednesday.
Atlanta +1.5 (-122): 1 Star out of 5
The Los Angeles Dodgers had an incredible regular season to finish with 106 wins, but they have been largely unimpressive during the postseason. The Dodgers needed a late comeback to beat the Atlanta Braves yesterday, cutting Atlanta’s series lead to 2-1.
Julio Urias gets the start for the Dodgers, and he had a tremendous 2.96 ERA and 3.12 xERA in 32 starts during the regular season. The Braves have not announced a starter, but there is speculation they could go with A.J. Minter to get through the first inning or two. Minter had an xERA of 2.98 in 52.1 innings this season. The Braves also have a 2.70 bullpen ERA in the postseason, so they seem completely prepared to handle a bullpen game in Game 4.
The Braves have had no problem scoring on the Dodgers this series, and therefore, our model gives Atlanta a 57.66% chance to cover the runline of +1.5, making this a one-star bet.