3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 9/20/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Andrew McCutchen To Hit a Home Run (+400)
How many home runs are the Philadelphia Phillies going to hit tonight?
That's how we should be approaching this matchup for the Phillies versus John Means, who is giving up far too many home runs to righties this season. Means is allowing a .214 ISO, 2.00 HR/9, 4.46 xFIP, 49.5% fly-ball rate, and 15.9% HR/FB rate versus right-handed hitters. Add in the fact this game is in a great hitter's park such as Philadelphia, and we are primed for home runs tonight.
We turn to Andrew McCutchen, who has a 179 wRC+, .342 ISO, 41% fly-ball rate, and 41.9% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. We have an amazing matchup on tap for McCutchen -- or any of the Phillies' righties tonight.
Huascar Ynoa Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-118)
The Atlanta Braves have a soft matchup for both their pitcher and hitters tonight.
We'll start with Huascar Ynoa's strikeout prop of 5.5, and the over is the spot to look. He comes in with a 27.7% strikeout rate on the season, which he has increased in some of his recent starts. Over his last five outings, Ynoa has posted a 35.0% strikeout rate or higher three separate times. This has led to him posting seven strikeouts or more in each of those three starts.
That trend could certainly continue tonight versus the Arizona Diamondbacks, who come in with a 24.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the seventh-worst in the league. Ynoa is hitting his stride this late in the season and faces a soft Diamondbacks lineup.
Freddie Freeman To Hit a Home Run (+340)
Now, we turn to a Braves hitter for a home run prop tonight.
That would be Freddie Freeman, who is looking as strong as ever with a .223 ISO, 145 wRC+, 39.6% hard-contact rate, and 22.1% HR/FB rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Awesome numbers from Freeman, and in reality, you could look to several of the Braves' hitters tonight.
They are up against Humberto Mejia, who only has 11.0 innings pitched this season and a total of 21.0 innings pitched in his entire MLB career. So, we'll use his career numbers, where he is allowing 2.38 HR/9 with a 39.4% fly-ball rate and 42.4% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters.
Even if Freeman doesn't get it done versus Mejia, he is still in a good spot because the Diamondbacks' bullpen is allowing 1.47 HR/9 to lefties, which is the third-worst in the league.