3 Under-the-Radar MLB FanDuel Plays for Tuesday 7/27/21
When being contrarian in daily fantasy sports, there's a fine line between taking a calculated risk and being reckless. But differentiating your lineups from everyone else's is the name of the game if you plan on taking down one of those highly lucrative DFS tournaments. Whether it's because of bookmaker totals, other options at a given position, or some gem you've found who everyone is overlooking, we can always find potential under-rostered plays if we look hard enough.
Here are three such players to consider branching out for on FanDuel's main slate.
Dylan Cease, P, Chicago White Sox ($8,200)
The pitching options on tonight's slate don't provide a clear top choice and that is great for tournaments.
There's no one must-start pitcher tonight and that should open up roster percentages to be spread out tonight. Lance McCullers ($10,500) is probably the best overall option but I'm going to make a case for Dylan Cease. At $8,200, Cease is the 10th most expensive pitcher on tonight's slate. Cease comes in with a 29.5% strikeout rate, which is the second-best among pitchers on this slate. Of course, strikeout rate isn't everything, we have to factor in so many other variables, but in terms of FanDuel point upside, Cease is a fantastic option.
Just for the sake of comparison, Cease has posted 10 strikeouts or more three times over his last 11 starts, McCullers has posted 10 strikeouts or more one time this entire season. The same can be said for Cease versus nearly every other pitcher on the slate except for Robbie Ray ($10,000). However, Ray has a very tough matchup against the Boston Red Sox tonight. I have a ton of interest in Cease and his strikeout upside tonight, hopefully, far under the radar.
Trent Grisham, OF, San Diego Padres ($3,500)
That run total has the Padres as the 11th highest team on the slate and if that causes them to be overlooked, I'm going to be very excited. The Padres have all the power and home run upside you could possibly want in a lineup and they have an amazing matchup tonight to see that shine through. That is why I'm a bit surprised to see their implied run total that low but I guess if they aren't popular it's that much better for tournaments.
They will be going up against James Kaprielian, who comes in with a 41.9% fly-ball rate and a 41.9% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters this season, which has led to him allowing 1.72 HR/9. That is a great number to see and one we actively want to target for potential home run upside.
Trent Grisham comes in with a .195 ISO, 118 wRC+, a strong 10.4% walk rate, a 40.3% fly-ball rate, and a 35.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. While Fernando Tatis Jr. or Manny Machado can always be popular, Grisham could fly under the radar but he still brings plenty of pop.
Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Miami Marlins ($2,800)
Are the Miami Marlins worth a look in tournaments tonight?
The Marlins are getting a massive positive park shift tonight since they are on the road to take on the Baltimore Orioles. They are also facing Spenser Watkins, who made his MLB debut this year and has a total of 16.1 innings pitched. It's not even worth looking at his numbers since the sample size is so small. All I'll say is this, Watkins is 28-years-old and made his MLB debut this year. He has been in the minors since 2014 and has shown to be a fly-ball pitcher. If a pitcher isn't making their MLB debut until they are 28, they really aren't a pitcher I'm going to be worried about.
I'll side with Jesus Aguilar, a proven MLB hitter, who comes in with a .215 ISO, a 111 wRC+, a 41.3% fly-ball rate, and a 41.4% hard-contact rate. A player who reaches the 40-40 line is one I look for to indicate home run upside, and Aguilar brings that with a salary under $3,000.