MLB Betting Guide: Monday 7/26/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Washington Nationals -1.5 (+158): 1 Star out of 5
The Washington Nationals are teetering on the edge of the playoff race, as they are now eight games behind the New York Mets for first place in the NL East. The Nationals are four games behind the Philadelphia Phillies, as well, but this game should be very evenly matched based on the starting pitching.
Overall, the starting pitching matchup is mostly even, and the teams are close to even in runs scored, too, with the Phillies averaging 4.48 runs per game compared to 4.34 for the Nationals. Even the bullpens are close, with the Nationals posting a 4.48 ERA compared to 4.73 for the Phillies.
Our model agrees that this is an evenly matched game, but we do like the Nationals at +158 to cover the runline of 1.5.
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-172): 3 Stars out of 5
The Cincinnati Reds should have an advantage in this game with Wade Miley facing Kyle Hendricks. Miley sports a 2.72 ERA and an xERA of 3.73, while Hendricks has a 3.61 ERA and 4.69 xERA. Both pitchers are outperforming their xERA, but Miley is still ahead by almost a run by either metric.
The Reds also have an advantage because they have been a much better offensive team than the Chicago Cubs this season, as they average 4.82 runs per game compared to 4.21 runs per game for the Cubs.
Our model loves the Reds chances to cover, as we give them a 70.7% likelihood to cover the 1.5 runline, and we give them a 53.5% chance to win the game outright.
Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+125): 1 Star out of 5
The Colorado Rockies always struggle away from home, and that has been even more prevalent this season, as they are 10-36 away from Coors Field. The Rockies do have their best pitcher starting in German Marquez, but he opposes Shohei Ohtani, who is ahead of Marquez in both ERA and xERA.
Ohtani has been fantastic in his last two starts, throwing 13 innings while allowing only 2 runs with 12 strikeouts and 1 walk. The Los Angeles Angels are a good run-scoring team (10th in the league), so when they get elite starting pitching, they certainly expect to win.
Our model likes the Angles at -1.5 and at the moneyline of -166.