MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 6/23/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Kansas City Royals +1.5 (-126): 2 Stars out of 5
The Kansas City Royals are somewhat large underdogs in this matchup despite having the better end of the starting pitching matchup. The Royals start Danny Duffy who owns a 1.94 ERA and 3.66 xERA so far this season and he opposes Michael King who has a 4.08 ERA and 5.26 xERA. Duffy maintains a large lead in both categories and it is clear that he is the superior pitcher.
The Royals are also a better offensive team than the New York Yankees so far this season, as they average 4.25 runs per game compared to 3.97 runs per game for the Yankees. Our model gives the Royals a 61.01% likelihood of covering the runline of +1.5 and we like this as a 2-star betting opportunity.
Miami Marlins +1.5 (-172): 1 Star out of 5
The Miami Marlins start Trevor Rogers in this matchup and he always gives them a great chance to win as he is having a fantastic season. Rogers has a 1.87 ERA and 2.87 xERA and the Marlins are 8-6 in his first 14 starts this season.
The Toronto Blue Jays start Robbie Ray, who has a 3.50 ERA and 4.13 xERA. Ray is having a very solid season of his own but he is not keeping pace with the All-Star type season that Rogers is having. Our model thinks Rogers gives the Marlins a good chance to keep this game close and we give a 65.45% likelihood of them covering the runline of +1.5.
Seattle Mariners +1.5 (-164): 1 Star out of 5
The Colorado Rockies have always been a team that relies on home-field advantage, but this year, their splits have been stunning. Colorado is 5-28 away from home in 2021 and they travel to take on the Seattle Mariners, who are 24-15 at home.
The Rockies do start German Marquez, who is having a good season with an xERA of 3.85, and they certainly have the advantage in the pitching matchup as the Mariners start Justus Sheffield, who has an xERA of 6.05.
Our model thinks the home field advantage is enough for Seattle to outweigh the pitching matchup and we give them a 62.94% chance to cover.