4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Tuesday 6/22/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's 14-game main slate.
Freddy Peralta, SP, Milwaukee Brewers ($9,500)
Tonight's loaded slate has five pitchers with salaries in the five figures and there's very little argument against paying up for one of them tonight, but if you do want to conserve some salary at pitcher, Freddy Peralta might just be your best bet.
Strikeout Freddy enters tonight with a 35.9% strikeout rate, which is the second-highest amongst all starters on the slate. Peralta also has a 2.28 ERA, a .140 opponent batting average, and a 0.87 WHIP on the season. The 25-year-old's expected ERA (xERA) is 2.50, so we shouldn't be questioning the legitimacy of his numbers.
The Milwaukee Brewers starter gets a titillating matchup tonight versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. On the season, Arizona's 80 wRC+ against right-handed pitching ranks second-worst in the league, according to FanGraphs. Their 24.6% K rate in that split is 13th-worst. While some teams have seen their offense improve since April, the opposite is true for the DBacks. Since the start of May, Arizona's offense is dead last in wRC+.
Peralta went up against the Diamondbacks in his first June start, and he punched out 9 batters in 7.1 innings while ceding just 1 hit and 1 earned run. He totaled a season-high 56 FanDuel points in that outing.
Honorable Mention: If you're looking for even more savings, Tarik Skubal ($8,700) is worthy of consideration. The St. Louis Cardinals' 77 wRC+ over the last month is tied for the worst mark in the league during that stretch. Meanwhile, Skubal is 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 50 strikeouts in just 33 innings over his last six efforts.
Dylan Moore, 2B/OF, Seattle Mariners ($2,400)
Despite the fact that they sport one of the worst offenses in all of baseball, the Seattle Mariners have the slate's fifth-highest implied run total, according to numberFire's Matchup Heat Map. The reasoning for this is pretty simple -- they're facing Colorado Rockies lefty. Kyle Freeland.
Through 20.2 innings in 2021, Freeland has surrendered a whopping nine homers while striking out just 12 to his 11 free passes. Yikes. If the small sample size isn't enough for you, expanding it won't paint a prettier picture. In 195.2 innings since 2019, the southpaw has a 6.16 ERA, 5.88 FIP, .301 opponent batting average, and .899 opponent OPS. During that stretch, Freeland has allowed two dongs per nine frames while maintaining a mere 15.5% strikeout rate. In other words, you'll want to target hitters going up against him.
A number of Seattle's viable bats will cost you $2,900 or more, but Dylan Moore stands out as an intriguing economical play. Moore's counting stats on the season aren't all that enticing, but over his last 18 games (72 plate appearances), he's garnered 10 extra-base hits (4 homers), 11 RBI, 10 runs scored, 4 steals, and a .880 OPS. That'll play.
Tony Kemp, 2B/OF, Oakland Athletics ($2,200)
The Texas Rangers will be opening with lefty Taylor Hearn to start tonight's contest versus the Oakland Athletics, but they'll likely turn to their bullpen after a couple of innings. That leaves open the possibility that we will see lefty Tony Kemp in the start lineup.
Our Matchup Heat Map has the A's with a 4.95 implied run total tonight, which is the second-highest mark on the slate. While Hearn possesses a 4.84 ERA on the season, the Rangers' bullpen hasn't fared much better, as their ERA sits at 4.50, which is the ninth-worst mark in the majors. As a result, an Oakland stack can really pay off tonight.
If he's in the lineup, Kemp absolutely needs to garner serious consideration. Over his last 17 games (67 plate appearances), Kemp has accrued 8 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 16 runs scored, 12 RBI, an OPS of 1.025, and 12 walks to just 8 strikeouts. To get a hitter with that kind of form at a salary that's just $200 above the minimum makes it really tough to pass up.
Abraham Toro, 3B, Houston Astros ($2,100)
On the season, Lopez has a 5.95 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, and he's ceded 1.8 dongs per nine frames. While his underlying numbers are certainly better than that -- 4.26 xFIP and 4.35 SIERA -- a correction is unlikely to come against the best offense in baseball. Lefties have bashed Lopez for 1.96 HR/9 in his career (compared to 1.31 for right-handed hitters), so targeting opposite-handed hitters against him is far from the worst idea.
Most of the top bats in Houston's lineup will cost you $3,200 or more, but Abraham Toro is nearly at the minimum salary. Toro has started four of the last five games for the Astros, and he's racked up eight hits, a homer, 5 RBI, 2 walks, a steal, and just one strikeout in those efforts. He's worth a dart-throw tonight.