MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/11/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Atlanta +1.5 (-132): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Over 13.1 innings this season (2 starts, 3 appearances), Toussaint has piled up 20 strikeouts for an eye-popping 35.1% strikeout rate, which could be the result of a different pitch mix from last season. His ERA can also be explained by a trifecta of bad luck stats (.345 BABIP, 59.2% strand rate, 25.0% HR/FB rate), and his 2.65 SIERA also supports this notion.
He'll oppose Jordan Montgomery, who only pitched four innings in 2019 following Tommy John surgery. Early returns have been a mixed bag at best, and he's only managed a 14.6% strikeout rate through two starts. It certainly wouldn't be surprising to see the Atlanta Braves hold their own against him tonight.
numberFire's model gives the Braves runline a 66.13% chance of success -- good for a three-star rating.
Over 8.5 (-118): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Baltimore is rolling out Alex Cobb, who's been surprisingly effective over three starts (2.51 ERA), and it's largely backed up by a 3.58 SIERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, and 65.0% ground-ball rate. His splitter is doing wonders so far (28.7% swinging-strike rate), so maybe some of these improvements have staying power.
That said, we can't ignore that the last time he held a respectable ERA was 2017, and he's never been much of a strikeout pitcher (career 18.9% rate). It's not like he's been flawless, too, as he's also issuing more walks (9.7%) and has poor Statcast batted-ball marks across the board. Some of his squeaky clean ERA is the result of a fortuitous .211 BABIP, as well.
While Cobb is likely pitching over his head, Zack Wheeler might be in the opposite situation -- at least in terms of peripherals. Although Wheeler has a 2.08 ERA through two outings, it's come with a pedestrian 12.5% strikeout rate and a 8.3% walk rate. After posting a 23.5% strikeout rate last year, he should surely improve over the long haul, but it's a sign that perhaps the Orioles can tack on a few runs of their own.
And as an added bonus, the Phillies' bullpen continues to flounder, giving another good opportunity for Orioles runs.
Ultimately, there's enough going for both sides to see a path to nine-plus combined runs. Our model gives the over a 63.98% likelihood for another three-star wager.
Chicago +1.5 (-164): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Plutko has performed pretty well over his first 7.0 innings this season, but he wasn't anything special in 2019, putting forth a 5.19 SIERA and 16.9% strikeout rate over 109.1 innings. He also really struggled to keep the ball in the park last season, allowing a whopping 1.81 homers per 9 innings. That's not exactly Mike Clevinger material.
Jon Lester is a shell of his former self, so the Cleveland Indians figure to get their share of runs, as well, but we have to like Chicago's chances of keeping this close or outright taking this in a potential shootout. Our algorithm sees the Chicago runline as a three-star wager, coming through at a 71.22% clip.