MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 8/6/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 11.5 (-102): 3-Star Rating out of 5
We're expecting a Coors Field special today between the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies, and we have the game flying past the over. FanDuel Sportsbook has the total at 11.5 runs, and our model projects 13.3 runs to be scored -- nearly a two-run gap.
Anderson has more walks (six) than punchouts (four) so far in 2020, and his last full season came back in 2018, when he was a member of the Rockies. Since that campaign, he's thrown a mere 28 frames at the MLB level, struggling to a 5.31 SIERA. Lefty killers Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story should give him all sorts of trouble today.
Freeland had a solid season in 2018, but since then he's had a heck of a time trying to regain that form, posting a 5.11 SIERA across the last two years while allowing a 41.3% hard-hit rate. The Giants' lineup isn't very good, but Wilmer Flores and Evan Longoria have had good success versus southpaws in their career.
Take the over and enjoy the runs. This is our lone three-star bet for Thursday, and we give the over a 63.6% chance of hitting.
Reds Moneyline (+106): 2-Star Rating out of 5
It's the Battle of Ohio today, and it's a matchup between two good pitchers as we'll see Luis Castillo and Carlos Carrasco take the bump. As such, the total is just 7.5 runs, and our model projects 7.8 runs. These two pitchers should thrive, and it should be a close game.
The moneyline is where the value is, per our projections. The Cincinnati Reds are slight underdogs (+106), but our algorithm sees Cincy winning 53.8% of the time.
While Carrasco is very good in his own right, Castillo is pitching like one of baseball's top-shelf aces so far in 2020, spinning a 2.25 SIERA, 33.3% strikeout rate, 3.3% walk rate and 21.3% swinging-strike rate. Yes, both of his starts have come against the light-hitting Detroit Tigers, but the Cleveland Indians have been brutal offensively so far this campaign. The Indians own a .254 wOBA (next to last) and 25.7% strikeout rate (seventh-worst).
There's some value on the Reds, and we rate it as a two-star play. You could also take Cincinnati to cover as 1.5-run 'dogs, though that's currently at -215.