3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/29/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jesus Aguilar OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (+105)
A few days ago, our models really liked Jesus Aguilar as a fantasy option, but Bovada wasn't offering any odds on him as a prop bet. That has changed on Friday, and it might be another perfect opportunity to get great odds on the over as the Milwaukee Brewers square off with righty Sal Romano.
Aguilar has beaten up pitchers of both handedness this season. He owns a .411 wOBA and a .319 isolated power (ISO) against right-handed pitching, and considering Aguilar is 15-for-30 (.500) over his last 8 starts, our models project him for 3.34 combined runs, hits, and RBI on Friday.
Aaron Judge UNDER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-135)
We've made some money betting the over on this same prop with Aaron Judge this season, but our models are leaning in the other direction Friday with southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez on the hill for the Boston Red Sox.
Rodriguez is holding right-handers to a .298 wOBA this season, and Judge really sees his stats dip against left-handers. The righty slugger owns a .369 wOBA against lefties, which is down from .414 against righties. Considering this, as well his 32.7% strikeout rate against southpaws, our models project Judge for only 2.01 runs, hits, and RBI.
Miles Mikolas OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-155)
Miles Mikolas is having a career year for the St. Louis Cardinals, but his strikeouts have been somewhat unpredictable. However, Mikolas has five or more strikeouts in five of his last seven games, and our projections are a little higher on his strikeout total than Bovada's prop odds.
Granted, there is a lot of chalk with the over, and MIkolas is only sporting an 18.5% strikeout rate over this season. Even with the Atlanta Braves likely sporting plenty of left-handed bats in their lineup tonight, our models project Mikolas for 4.81 strikeouts.