Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 7/24/21
As always, check the program for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Malathaat, Race 5
FanDuel Racing Odds: 2/5
Race 5 is the $500K Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks for three-year-old fillies at 1 1/8 miles. It's a disappointing field of just four runners, and it's not a good betting race. Clairiere (9/5) with top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. is the only challenger to numberFire’s projected winner, Malathaat (2/5).
Malathaat is 5-for-5 with a pair of Grade 1 wins. She won the Kentucky Oaks as the favorite by three lengths over fourth-place finisher Clairiere. Malathaat is an elite talent with natural ability and tactical speed. Jonny Velazquez rides for EPO trainer Todd Pletcher, and apparently other trainers are not willing to run their horses against this fine filly sired by the great Curlin.
Watasha and Volcanic, Race 6
FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1 and 6/1
Race 6 is a Maiden Special Weight for two-year-olds sprinting 6 furlongs. numberFire's algorithm projects Midnight Worker (6/1) to outduel the favorite, Watasha (3/1)
Midnight Worker has Luis Saenz riding for trainer Todd Pletcher while Irad Ortiz, Jr. is up for trainer Chad Brown. Volcanic (6/1) is also a contender who can win or hit the board if Watasha falters, according to Guaranteed Tip Sheet.
Caravel, Race 10
FanDuel Racing Odds: 7/5
Race 10 is the $200K Grade 3 Caress Stakes for older fillies and mares sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. Robin Sparkles (6/5) should gun it out of the gate next to Caravel (7/5) on the rail. Jose Ortiz and brother Irad Ortiz, Jr. are the jockeys of those two favorites, and numberFire gives Caravel a slight edge to win over Robin Sparkles with an exacta box in play.
Both fillies have won six of their last eight starts and have never finished off the board on grass. Horse Racing Radar notes that Caravel ran the top last-race speed figure with both fillies running their fastest race last time out. Back in April, Robin Sparkles finished second and less than a length in front of Caravel in their only meeting.