Building a successful lineup is all about understanding the kind of team you want to build (Is it head-to-head? A big tournament?) and then choosing players that represent the kind of risk necessary to win. A head-to-head game requires a team that is more consistent with less risk; a tournament game requires a team that has high upside, as well as players that you feel might not be heavily owned.
A good way to measure risk is to look at floor and ceiling calculations. Floor and ceiling represent the one standard deviation confidence range, or 68% confidence. That means, 68% of the time, they will be expected to score within that range.
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